The Korea Times
amn_close.png
amn_bl.png
National
  • Politics
  • Foreign Affairs
  • Multicultural Community
  • Defense
  • Environment & Animals
  • Law & Crime
  • Society
  • Health & Science
amn_bl.png
Business
  • Tech
  • Bio
  • Companies
  • World Expo 2030
amn_bl.png
Finance
  • Companies
  • Economy
  • Markets
  • Cryptocurrency
amn_bl.png
Opinion
  • Editorial
  • Columns
  • Thoughts of the Times
  • Cartoon
  • Today in History
  • Blogs
  • Tribune Service
  • Blondie & Garfield
  • Letter to the Editor
amn_bl.png
Lifestyle
  • Travel & Food
  • Trends
  • People & Events
  • Books
  • Around Town
  • Fortune Telling
amn_bl.png
Entertainment & Arts
  • K-pop
  • Films
  • Shows & Dramas
  • Music
  • Theater & Others
amn_bl.png
Sports
  • Hangzhou Asian Games
amn_bl.png
World
  • SCMP
  • Asia
amn_bl.png
Video
  • Korean Storytellers
  • POPKORN
  • Culture
  • People
  • News
amn_bl.png
Photos
  • Photo News
  • Darkroom
amn_NK.png amn_DR.png amn_LK.png amn_LE.png
  • bt_fb_on_2022.svgbt_fb_over_2022.svg
  • bt_twitter_on_2022.svgbt_twitter_over_2022.svg
  • bt_youtube_on_2022.svgbt_youtube_over_2022.svg
  • bt_instagram_on_2022.svgbt_instagram_over_2022.svg
The Korea Times
amn_close.png
amn_bl.png
National
  • Politics
  • Foreign Affairs
  • Multicultural Community
  • Defense
  • Environment & Animals
  • Law & Crime
  • Society
  • Health & Science
amn_bl.png
Business
  • Tech
  • Bio
  • Companies
  • World Expo 2030
amn_bl.png
Finance
  • Companies
  • Economy
  • Markets
  • Cryptocurrency
amn_bl.png
Opinion
  • Editorial
  • Columns
  • Thoughts of the Times
  • Cartoon
  • Today in History
  • Blogs
  • Tribune Service
  • Blondie & Garfield
  • Letter to the Editor
amn_bl.png
Lifestyle
  • Travel & Food
  • Trends
  • People & Events
  • Books
  • Around Town
  • Fortune Telling
amn_bl.png
Entertainment & Arts
  • K-pop
  • Films
  • Shows & Dramas
  • Music
  • Theater & Others
amn_bl.png
Sports
  • Hangzhou Asian Games
amn_bl.png
World
  • SCMP
  • Asia
amn_bl.png
Video
  • Korean Storytellers
  • POPKORN
  • Culture
  • People
  • News
amn_bl.png
Photos
  • Photo News
  • Darkroom
amn_NK.png amn_DR.png amn_LK.png amn_LE.png
  • bt_fb_on_2022.svgbt_fb_over_2022.svg
  • bt_twitter_on_2022.svgbt_twitter_over_2022.svg
  • bt_youtube_on_2022.svgbt_youtube_over_2022.svg
  • bt_instagram_on_2022.svgbt_instagram_over_2022.svg
  • Login
  • Register
  • Login
  • Register
  • The Korea Times
  • search
  • all menu
  • Login
  • Subscribe
  • Photos
  • Video
  • World
  • Sports
  • Opinion
  • Entertainment & Art
  • Lifestyle
  • Finance
  • Business
  • National
  • North Korea
  • 1

    N. Korea holds politburo meeting to discuss Kim-Putin summit: KCNA

  • 3

    BLACKPINK's contract renewal still in limbo

  • 5

    Kim Jong-un's rejection of Russia's food assistance irritates North Korean defectors

  • 7

    INTERVIEWVirtual K-pop group MAVE: is more than just pretty pixels

  • 9

    Russia lodges protest to S.Korean envoy over Yoon's UN speech

  • 11

    Lawmakers want to grill business tycoons over decision to rejoin FKI

  • 13

    Disney+ aims to expand investment in original Korean content

  • 15

    Appellate court upholds 9-yr prison term for man over filming, distributing sexual videos featuring women

  • 17

    Yoon signs off on plan to waive expressway tolls during Chuseok holiday

  • 19

    JSW in talks with LG Energy Solution to make EV batteries in India: sources

  • 2

    Scientists find green way to turn CO2 into fuel with sunlight

  • 4

    BTS member Suga begins mandatory military service

  • 6

    Opposition party in turmoil as leader could be arrested on Tuesday

  • 8

    Korea boosts subsidies to rev up falling EV sales

  • 10

    Foreign employees rewarded for contribution to Korea's shipbuilding industry

  • 12

    Arrest warrant hearing for DPK leader Lee to be held Tuesday

  • 14

    Korea hammers Thailand to clinch men's football knockout berth

  • 16

    Hebrew University students travel to Korea to explore musical landscape

  • 18

    Gov't reviews changing description of Fukushima wastewater

  • 20

    'Songpyeon' for low-income families

Close scrollclosebutton

Close for 24 hours

Open
  • The Korea Times
  • search
  • all menu
  • Login
  • Subscribe
  • Photos
  • Video
  • World
  • Sports
  • Opinion
  • Entertainment & Art
  • Lifestyle
  • Finance
  • Business
  • National
  • North Korea
North Korea
Sun, September 24, 2023 | 02:52
What is behind N. Korea's hostile behavior?
국방부 "北, 어제 우리 GP 조준사격…도발적 행위"
Posted : 2014-10-20 17:46
Updated : 2014-10-21 11:01
Print PreviewPrint Preview
Font Size UpFont Size Up
Font Size DownFont Size Down
  • facebook
  • twitter
  • kakaolink
  • whatsapp
  • reddit
  • mailto
  • link
Pyongyang taking calculated risk for better position, experts say

By Yi Whan-woo


How should the recent North Korean behavior that mixes provocations with good-will gestures be read, not that it is anything new?

Still, on Oct. 7, a boat trespassed into South Korean waters in the West Sea, followed by anti-aircraft fire at propaganda balloons sent by activists on Oct. 10. There were two violations of the Armistice Agreement over the weekend in the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), the four-kilometer buffer separating the two Koreas.These took place after the surprise Oct. 4 visit by a high-level Pyongyang delegation to Incheon.

So the core question is whether they represent an escalation that could lead to an inter-Korean conflict on a bigger scale. It has long been believed that if there is another conflict on the Korean peninsula, it could unexpectedly arise from a small clash.

But for now, experts place a greater emphasis on the scenario that the North is taking a calculated risk, and expect more provocations on a small scale to force the South to hold inter-Korean military talks.

The impoverished regime then will seek to bring economic support from the South in separate talks focusing on inter-Korean cooperation other than military fields, the experts added.

They also emphasized the two Koreas are not likely to engage in a war under "any circumstances."

"I'd say North Korea's series of military provocations are carefully calculated in order to heighten fear of an armed conflict between the two Koreas," said Kang Myung-do, a North Korean studies professor at Kyungmin College.

The two Koreas exchanged gun fire at the military demarcation line (MDL) after North Korean soldiers advanced toward the South on Saturday and Sunday. The MDL is the land border dissecting the Korean Peninsula.

No casualties were reported. But Pyongyang apparently has perplexed Seoul as they took place after the surprise visit by the North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's confidants — Hwang Pyong-so, Choe Ryong-hae and Kim Yang-gon — to Incheon. They and South Korean officials agreed to hold inter-Korean talks by the end of this month at the earliest.

The two countries also exchanged machines gun fire on Oct. 10 after the North Korea apparently shot down balloons carrying anti-Pyongyang propaganda leaflets flown by South Korean civil activists in Paju, Gyeonggi Province.

On Oct. 7, the South and North Korean patrol boats exchanged fire after a North Korean naval vessel crossed the North Limit Line (NLL), the de facto maritime border.

"Public concern about military threats will grow in South Korea and calls for military talks are likely to spread. That's where Pyongyang could come in and propose such talks exclusively."

Paik Hak-soon, the director of the Center for North Korean Studies at Sejong Institute, voiced a similar view.

"No inter-Korean talks on the economy and business sectors will be possible under the May 24 Sanctions. North Korea will seek to engage in military talks first," he said.

Effective on May 24, 2010, the punitive sanctions ban all inter-Korean cooperation, including trading activities, except for those within the Gaesong Industrial Complex in North Korea in response to Pyongyang's sinking of the South Korean frigate Cheonan in March of that year.

"North Korea also has been infuriated by Seoul sending airborne leaflets as the messages have been extremely critical of its leaders. It will seek to have the South Korean government ban its people to do so by bringing up the issue at the military meeting."

According to Kang, the regime is making a separate approach in terms of military and economic issues in inter-Korean relations.

"It knows too well that hard-line President Park Geun-hye will not change her North Korean policy that assumes Pyongyang will give up its nuclear programs to receive economic support," he said.

"The North will never give up such weapons of mass destruction, which will be with dealt at the military talks. At the same time, it's desperate to receive financial support from us to rebuild itself.

"By separating the two issues, it will be in a better position to demand us to lift the May 24 measures while maintaining its nuclear weapons."

Both Kang and Paik turned down speculation that repeated armed struggles between the two Koreas could result in a war.

"What North Korea really wants is economic development and there's no chance a war will happen," Paik said.

"North Korea has been spending money to built resort infrastructure, such as a ski resort and a mega-sized water park under the Kim Jong-un regime. The investment was large enough to make bombs if Pyongyang ever considered having a war with us."


국방부 "北, 어제 우리 GP 조준사격…도발적 행위"

'우리 경고사격에 北 공세적 대응…도발책임 전가 명분쌓기 가능성'
'전 전선 북한군 동향 면밀 주시, 추가도발 철저 대비'

국방부는 경기도 파주지역 비무장지대(DMZ) 내 군사분계선(MDL)으로 접근한 북한군을 퇴각시키는 과정에서 19일 발생한 총격전 당시 북한군이 우리 GP(비무장지대 내 소초)를 향해 조준사격을 가했다고 밝혔다.

김민석 국방부 대변인은 20일 정례브리핑에서 '어제 우리 군이 MDL로 접근한 북한군을 향해 경고사격 할 때 탄환이 MDL을 넘어가지 않고 (MDL이남) 우리 측 지역에 떨어지도록 했다'면서 '그러나 북한군은 우리측 GP에 사격을 했으며 GP까지 날아온 것은 (북한군이) 조준사격을 한 것으로 보고 있다'고 말했다.

김 대변인은 '북한군의 이런 행위는 도발적 행위'라고 비난했다.

김 대변인은 이어 북한군이 주말에 MDL 선상에서 계속 도발적 행위를 한 의도에 대해서는 'MDL 상의 푯말이나 표시물의 번호나 위치를 확인하는 정찰활동이거나 민간단체의 전단 살포 등에 대비해 우리 측에 도발의 책임을 전가하려는 명분쌓기용일 가능성도 있다'고 말했다.

김 대변인은 '우리가 경고사격을 하면 북한군은 대체로 그 지역을 벗어났는데 최근에는 우리가 대응사격을 하면 북한군도 대응사격을 한다는 것이 과거와 달라진 것'이라며 '이는 우리 측이 대응사격하면 북한군이 공세적으로 대응하기 위한 준비의 일환일 가능성도 있다'고 밝혔다.

그는 '우리 군은 전 전선에서 북한군의 동향을 면밀히 주시하고 있으며 추가 도발에 철저히 대비하고 있다'면서 '북한은 군사적 긴장을 조성시키는 무모한 군사적 도발과 정전협정 위반행위를 즉각 중단할 것을 엄중하게 경고한다'고 강조했다. (연합뉴스)
Emailyistory@koreatimes.co.kr Article ListMore articles by this reporter
 
miguel
Top 10 Stories
1Scientists find green way to turn CO2 into fuel with sunlight Scientists find green way to turn CO2 into fuel with sunlight
2Kim Jong-un's rejection of Russia's food assistance irritates North Korean defectors Kim Jong-un's rejection of Russia's food assistance irritates North Korean defectors
3Opposition party in turmoil as leader could be arrested on Tuesday Opposition party in turmoil as leader could be arrested on Tuesday
4Korea boosts subsidies to rev up falling EV sales Korea boosts subsidies to rev up falling EV sales
5Russia lodges protest to S.Korean envoy over Yoon's UN speech Russia lodges protest to S.Korean envoy over Yoon's UN speech
6Foreign employees rewarded for contribution to Korea's shipbuilding industry Foreign employees rewarded for contribution to Korea's shipbuilding industry
7Lawmakers want to grill business tycoons over decision to rejoin FKI Lawmakers want to grill business tycoons over decision to rejoin FKI
8Gov't reviews changing description of Fukushima wastewater Gov't reviews changing description of Fukushima wastewater
9'Songpyeon' for low-income families 'Songpyeon' for low-income families
10Big insurers up for sale, but financial conglomerates appear disinterested Big insurers up for sale, but financial conglomerates appear disinterested
Top 5 Entertainment News
1BLACKPINK's contract renewal still in limbo BLACKPINK's contract renewal still in limbo
2[INTERVIEW] Virtual K-pop group MAVE: is more than just pretty pixels INTERVIEWVirtual K-pop group MAVE: is more than just pretty pixels
3Hebrew University students travel to Korea to explore musical landscape Hebrew University students travel to Korea to explore musical landscape
4[INTERVIEW] Seoul's increased art market momentum brings Sotheby's back to Korea INTERVIEWSeoul's increased art market momentum brings Sotheby's back to Korea
5[INTERVIEW] 'Cobweb' director questions meaning of cinema INTERVIEW'Cobweb' director questions meaning of cinema
DARKROOM
  • Turkey-Syria earthquake

    Turkey-Syria earthquake

  • Nepal plane crash

    Nepal plane crash

  • Brazil capital uprising

    Brazil capital uprising

  • Happy New Year 2023

    Happy New Year 2023

  • World Cup 2022 Final - Argentina vs France

    World Cup 2022 Final - Argentina vs France

CEO & Publisher : Oh Young-jin
Digital News Email : webmaster@koreatimes.co.kr
Tel : 02-724-2114
Online newspaper registration No : 서울,아52844
Date of registration : 2020.02.05
Masthead : The Korea Times
Copyright © koreatimes.co.kr. All rights reserved.
  • About Us
  • Introduction
  • History
  • Contact Us
  • Products & Services
  • Subscribe
  • E-paper
  • RSS Service
  • Content Sales
  • Site Map
  • Policy
  • Code of Ethics
  • Ombudsman
  • Privacy Statement
  • Terms of Service
  • Copyright Policy
  • Family Site
  • Hankook Ilbo
  • Dongwha Group