By Kim Young-jin
The three main presidential candidates, out to prove they have the best handle on North Korea, have unleashed in recent weeks a litany of promises on how they will coax the country toward engagement.
But analysts say specific ideas on the campaign trail won't necessarily carry over once the winner takes office. That, they say, depends in a large part on North Korea.
"The candidates are trying to get votes by responding to public concerns," Choi Jin-wook, an analyst with the Korea Institute for National Unification, said. "In office, they'll have to consider policy coordination with Washington, North Korea's reaction and public support. There's a gap between policy and what you say during the campaign."
Seoul's approach to the North over the past decade and a half has swung from unconditional engagement under late former Presidents Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun to the Lee Myung-bak's "Grand Bargain" which says aid and cooperation come after the North's moves to denuclearize.
The candidates appear to be hedging closer to center this time, with the liberals underscoring the importance of ties with Washington and conservative Park Geun-hye advocating building trust with the North. Still, big promises on engagement have not been lacking.
Democrat Moon Jae-in, chief of staff under engagement-minded President Roh, has said he would meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un during his first year in office to discuss a North-South Economic Coalition. He proposes solving the nuclear issue through a peace treaty to end the 1950-53 Korean War.
Park who is also willing to meet the North Korean leader, wants to "build trust" with Pyongyang and open liaison offices in the countries' respective capitals. While she also advocates a heavier stick against provocative behavior, analysts say her engagement gestures seek to distance her from Lee.
Independent Ahn Cheol-soo proposes a joint fishing zone in the West Sea, the site of two deadly clashes in 2010. He wants a resumption of multiparty talks on the North's denuclearization but hasn't elaborated on what the steps Pyongyang should take in order to make that happen.
Woo Jung-yeop, a senior research fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, said despite the shift to the center, the candidates could have a difficult time staying there once in office.
He said the liberals' is a functional approach that chooses to engage in less sensitive areas such as economics and culture in a bid to later broach security-related matters. President's Lee's stance largely places security ahead of increased cooperation.
"It is very difficult for the North to change in security matters," he said. "From the theoretical perspective, it's either a functional approach or a grand bargain, there's nothing in between."
Analyst Choi, however, said all the candidates appeared serious about showing greater flexibility.
"They will try to talk and ease tensions. But it depends on how North Korea reacts to these efforts," he said.
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