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| U.S. President Donald Trump makes a fist as he walks away after speaking at a campaign rally at Laughlin/Bullhead International Airport in Bullhead City, Arizona, Oct. 28. Reuters-Yonhap |
Biden presidency could expedite cost-sharing talks
By Do Je-hae
With the showdown between U.S. President Donald Trump and his Democratic rival Joe Biden just days away, the public and media here are showing an unprecedented level of anticipation regarding the result of the U.S. presidential race, which is expected to have a decisive impact on Korea's foreign affairs policies.
The question many in Korea are asking is who should they be pulling for? This was one of the most interesting questions that was discusssed during an election-themed webinar hosted by AMCHAM Korea, Thursday, with experts from the Center for Strategic and international Studies (CSIS) in Washington.
"It's a good question and I think it depends on which South Korean you ask. Being very frank, when it comes to North Korea policy and diplomacy, many in the progressive camp would like to see a continuation of Trump because he is basically willing to pull out all the stops on North Korea," said Victor Cha, a senior advisor and Korea chair at CSIS.
Relaying prospects from people involved in the Trump campaign, Cha highlighted that in the event of a Trump victory there would be the possibility of a another summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in the early stages of his second term. "I heard from someone who is very close to the Trump campaign that if he wins he is going to go for a fourth summit right away to try to finish the business that he couldn't really finish in Hanoi. This person said President Trump really went all in on North Korea. He took the issue on himself, he invested his personal time and capital and face in it and it's a loose end from his first term in office. So I think he would want to go and do that right away," Cha said. "Koreans who want to see more diplomacy with North Korea and pick up the pieces of Singapore and Hanoi would want to see Donald Trump win again."
He also added that North Korea, unlike in the Trump administration, is not going to be a priority in the Biden administration. "They will have so many things on their plate," Cha said, referring to urgent issues such as the pandemic and the economy.
But if North Korea resorted to provocations, that could make it a priority by creating a crisis, according to CSIS President and CEO John Hamre, who took part in the online discussion hosted by AMCHAM Korea Chairman and CEO James Kim.
"If Biden is elected, it will go back to a more predictable pattern but then the question is what does North Korea do? Do they try to stimulate something early on in the presidency and create a crisis? That's the concern that Victor has and I share," said Hamre, a former U.S. deputy secretary of defense.
State of alliance
A Biden presidency could be better news for those who are more concerned about the state of the alliance, which experts say has significantly degenerated during Trump's time in office. One of the biggest concerns about the alliance has been the negotiations to settle Korea's share of costs for maintaining U.S. troops here. The Special Measures Agreement (SMA) negotiations have dragged on during the presidency of Trump, who has criticized Seoul for "paying peanuts" for the troops. Biden would move try to wrap up the talks much more quickly, according to Cha.
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| Democratic presidential candidate and former Vice President Joe Biden speaks to a crowd of supporters during a drive-in rally at the Florida State Fairgrounds, Thursday, Oct. in Tampa, Fla. AP-Yonhap |
"To allow this thing to fester for four years like this and allow it to become the single impediment in the alliance is just such a travesty from any way you look at it. If Biden came into office, they would work very quickly to make an agreement right away and just take it off the table," Cha said. "The South Koreans were willing to offer as high as an 8 percent increase in previous negotiations, which is among the highest they have given in the past. There is nothing wrong with doing an agreement with that. I don't think the U.S. is losing if it makes an agreement like that. It would be an important signal to send more broadly that U.S. is not looking at these alliances in simply transactional or profit-making terms. Both as a symbol and practically speaking, they would want to finish that right away and so that they can move onto other more important issues."
He added: "If any Koreans are concerned about the overall welfare of the alliance, I think there is no denying that the alliance has really degenerated over the last four years and that a Biden presidency, as John suggested, would be much more of a traditional, positive, forward-looking view about alliances with Korea, with Japan, with European allies and others where the U.S. would see these as power assets, not power liabilities. I think Trump really see them as the latter. So to the extent that Koreans care about the alliance, they would probably want to see something that looks more traditional, rather than the very transactional, monetary-based view of the alliance that Trump holds."
Biden has underlined that America is stronger when it stands with allies. "As President, I'll stand with South Korea, strengthening our alliance to safeguard peace in East Asia and beyond, rather than extorting Seoul with reckless threats to remove our troops," former Vice President Biden said in a contribution to Yonhap News Agency, Thursday. "I have a profound respect for the Korean people and for everything that South Korea has accomplished since the Korean War."
On the other hand, Trump has been criticized for lacking understanding on the role of U.S. troops in Korea. "President Trump has been unusual in the way he has treated allies. He has had a confrontational approach to allies and that's just not in our historic norm," Hamre said. "Honestly, I think he feels that we are somehow giving a gift to Korea by having troops in Korea, therefore you owe us something. I think that's is entirely wrong. We have troops in Korea because it's in America's interest to be forward-deployed in Korea and have Korea as an ally. It's such a precious thing for us and he doesn't understand that."
Some experts say a Trump reelection will bring more difficulties for Korea on primary bilateral issues such as the SMA talks.
"If Trump is re-elected, I think South Korea will face some very difficult times on issues such as SMA negotiations and U.S. troop presence on the peninsula. Seoul may have to compromise more than it wants on burden sharing in order to get other items on its list," Mason Richey, a professor at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, told The Korea Times. "If Biden is elected, there is likely to be a sort of alliance reset, and it would behoove the Moon administration to balance advancing South Korean interests in Northeast Asia with increased support for U.S. regional policies."
