Moon-Trump summit to center on defense cost sharing, trade affairs

President Moon Jae-in shakes hands with U.S. President Donald Trump during their summit at Cheong Wa Dae in Seoul in November 2017. Yonhap

Leaders will seek breakthrough on nuclear deadlock with NK

By Lee Min-hyung

U.S. President Donald Trump will likely ratchet up pressure on President Moon Jae-in on sensitive defense and economic issues during their upcoming summit later this month.

Experts here said Moon's wise handling of the complex diplomacy is crucial to prevent South Korea from suffering any unexpected political and economic setbacks.

One of the possible agenda items includes the annual defense cost sharing between Seoul and Washington. The cost is in use for maintenance of U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) here.

"Trump is likely to call on the South pay more during the upcoming meeting with Moon, as part of political rhetoric before they start negotiations to decide on the 2020 defense cost sharing," said Shin Beom-chul, a researcher at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies.

Under the 2019 Special Measures Agreement, South Korea will pay 1.04 trillion won ($881 million) in defense cost sharing with the U.S. this year, up 8.2 percent from the previous year. The agreement was reached in March after about a year of negotiations.

Both sides will soon start negotiations to renew the one-year contract, but as of now, a specific timeline has yet to be fixed over the discussion.

Shin said South Korea does not have to create "unnecessary diplomatic friction" on the issue with the U.S. at a time when negotiations on 2020 SMA have not started.

"The Trump administration is likely to draw up its negotiation strategies based on its defense cost sharing with Japan. Trump is expected to apply its negotiating tactics with Japan to Korea," the expert said.

"But as full-fledged negotiations are not underway as of now, Trump will not discuss details of the 2020 SMA with Moon during the summit."

Under the circumstances, Moon does not have to react sensitively to the growing pressure from Washington, the expert said.

On his planned Seoul visit, Trump will also likely press the South to side with Washington over the ongoing trade conflict between the U.S. and China.

The world's two largest economies have been engaged in a fierce trade conflict for about a year. South Korea is sandwiched between the economic powerhouses in their ongoing battle, so calls have surfaced that the government should come up with countermeasures to minimize possible economic damage from the trade war.

With Washington and Beijing showing no signs of reaching a settlement in their ongoing friction, Seoul's Ministry of Foreign Affairs decided last month to create a special taskforce dealing with the issue.

Shin pointed out Moon needs to keep emphasizing during his meeting with Trump that Seoul is on the side of Washington.

As of now, no clear breakthroughs are seen, so the best-case scenario is to walk the middle ground between the two countries and minimize the impacts of the trade war on the South Korean economy.

"For example, we can follow the footsteps of other U.S. allies, such as the United Kingdom and Australia, and take a close look at how they handle the issue," Shin said.

An F-22 Raptor stealth fighter lands at an air base in Gwangju on May 16 last year when the Max Thunder joint air drill between South Korea and the U.S. was underway. / Yonhap

Denuclearization of Korean Peninsula

Trump plans to visit Seoul after participating in the two-day-long G20 meeting in Osaka from June 28. He is also likely to discuss nuclear disarmament of the Korean Peninsula with Moon during his stay in the South's capital.

The U.S. State Department noted that Trump and Moon will hold talks on measures to further tighten the security alliance between Seoul and Washington and issues on denuclearization of the peninsula.

"The two leaders will also discuss ways to strengthen the U.S.-South Korea alliance," State Department spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus said in a recent press briefing. President Trump and President Moon will continue their close coordination on their efforts to achieve the final, fully verified denuclearization of North Korea, she added.

Starting last year, Moon has teamed up with Trump to bring the North back to the dialogue table. Both leaders have since generated some tangible outcomes by holding summits with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

But with the second summit between Trump and Kim ending up in breakdown last February, the North has declined to resume its nuclear talks with the U.S. In recent months, Pyongyang has also stepped up its provocative rhetoric against Seoul and Washington for "failing to take a proper attitude in nuclear negotiations with Pyongyang."

Despite the revival of bellicose rhetoric from the North, Trump has reiterated his willingness to hold a third summit with Kim to resume the deadlocked nuclear negotiations.

An expert at the Korea Institute for National Unification said the U.S. government needs to make some changes in its ongoing approach to the nuclear negotiations with the North to guarantee the security of the Kim Jong-un regime.

Washington argues the North should sign a "one-shot big deal" on complete denuclearization, while Pyongyang sticks to the need for phased steps before its denuclearization.

"There remains a huge gap in their approaches to the North's denuclearization, so it appears more realistic for Washington to shift its strategy to bring the North back to the dialogue table," the expert who declined to be named said.

"My view is that Trump should stop sticking to economic issues, such as a partial sanctions relief on the North, and instead focus on removing Kim Jong-un's sense of anxiety over the regime's security after its denuclearization," he said.

"For example, Trump can deliver a broad roadmap that guarantees the security of the Kim Jong-un regime, and keep persuading Kim that denuclearization is just a part of the broad roadmap."

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