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| U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un have dinner at the Metropole Hotel in Hanoi, Feb. 27, as part of their two-day-long summit in the Vietnamese capital. Yonhap |
By Lee Min-hyung
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un will never give up nuclear weapons as the regime is seeking to reach some "vague" agreements with the United States apparently for sanctions relief, according to some experts.
It has been more than a year since the North expressed its willingness for denuclearization and peace on the peninsula. Following the pledge made earlier last year, the regime has held rounds of discussions with Washington and Seoul to fine-tune details over the drive.
Despite the outward gesture for peace, Washington and Pyongyang have recently hit a snag in their ongoing denuclearization talks in the wake of the failure of their second summit last month.
With the mood for reconciliation showing no signs of progress between the two sides, skeptical voices are being raised here and abroad over the sincerity of the North's pledge for denuclearization.
"The North has never reached detailed agreements with the South and the U.S. on the denuclearization of the peninsula, and only demanded a lifting of sanctions in exchange for its phased steps towards nuclear disarmament," Shin Beom-chul, a senior director at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, said.
Last year alone, Kim Jong-un held three summits with South Korean President Moon Jae-in for talks on denuclearization and peace between the two Koreas. Last April, they signed the Panmunjeom Declaration in the first meeting.
But the agreement came with no details, with both sides only pledging to enhance relations in a way to continue their reconciliatory momentum and ease military tension on the peninsula.
They came to more detailed terms during their most recent meeting last September in Pyongyang, but the so-called inter-Korean "Pyongyang Declaration" also did not include a detailed timeline or more specific approach to denuclearization on the peninsula.
"For example, if the North really wanted to prove its determination for denuclearization, the regime could have included very specific terms of agreement in the declaration, such as its promise to rejoin the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and give up all its nuclear weapons," Shin said.
But the North has never taken such a step, and this continues raising pessimism on the North's denuclearization, he said.
Kim Yeol-soo, head of the security research office at the Korea Institute for Military Affairs, also said the North will not sign the so-called "one shot big deal" with the U.S., as the regime is aware that its phased approach will help it gain the upper hand in upcoming nuclear negotiations with Washington.
"The North is afraid of losing critical negotiating cards if it signs the big deal with the U.S.," he said.
Following the breakdown of the Hanoi summit, it became more apparent that Washington and Pyongyang will not make any concessions for each other in their approach to denuclearization, he said.
"Despite the gloomy outlook, it is the worst-case scenario for Washington and Pyongyang to come to a halt in their rare momentum for dialogue due to the summit fiasco," the analyst pointed out.
He also said South Korea needs to play a more active part in reviving hopes for denuclearization here.
"What the South Korean government needs to do is to be more agile in bringing Kim Jong-un to the dialogue table before he makes a decision contrary to the recent mood for peace here," he said.
"My suggestion is that Moon and Kim should have a one-on-one meeting as soon as possible at the truce village of Panmunjeom and seek breakthrough in their stalled nuclear talks," he said.
Former United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon also remained pessimistic in his views on the North's actual denuclearization.
He said in a recent forum in Seoul that there is little chance for Kim Jong-un to abandon its nuclear arms program, as the young dictator must have thought the phased denuclearization will help the regime evade economic sanctions while at the same time maintaining tension with the U.S. in their nuclear talks.
"Pyongyang appears to have thought it could evade economic crisis by receiving sanctions relief after agreeing to achieve complete denuclearization ― the definition of which is vague," Ban said in the forum hosted by the Kwanhun Club, Tuesday.
Critics here and abroad have voiced similar concerns, urging Washington and Seoul not to be deceived by such a strategy from Pyongyang.
"[The South and the U.S.] need to brace for possible provocations from the North which is likely to take a hardline approach over the nuclear talks for the time being," Ban said.
Last week, the regime withdrew its officials from the inter-Korean liaison office in the North's border city of Gaeseong, in an apparent gesture of discontent over its nuclear negotiations with the U.S.
"It is true that the Hanoi summit ended up generating a disappointing outcome, but the event was not necessarily a disappointing event in the long term in that the summit made Kim Jong-un's intentions more clear over denuclearization on the peninsula," said the South Korean former diplomat.
Ban also called on the government not to be in a hurry for denuclearization of the peninsula, and care more for the U.S. as the most important defense ally.
"South Korea fell short of closely communicating with the U.S. in pushing for denuclearization here," he pointed out. "We should not regard the U.S. as one of them."
He added the government should pay more attention to voices from the international community before carrying out inter-Korean projects, such as the resumption of now-closed Gaeseong Industrial Complex and tours to Mount Geumgang
"It is not proper for the South to push ahead with projects on its own. Korea needs to consult closely with the U.S. and major European countries by taking a closer look at U.N. regulations," he said.
