By Peter SylvestreProfessor of Korea University
Here we go again. Tens of thousands of Koreans (mostly the young) are taking to the streets, holding candles aloft.
In 2002, a similar wave of anti-U.S. sentiment resulted from the unfortunate case of two Korean schoolgirls who were killed in an accident involving U.S. Forces.
The resulting outcry, which was delayed on account of the World Cup, nearly severed the security alliance between the two countries. Now, tens of thousands are marching against a new threat from the U.S., this time in the form of ``crazy cow'' disease.
How dangerous is BSE to Koreans? According to Britain's National Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease Surveillance Unit (NCJDSU), as of May 2008, three Americans have died of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease (vCJD) disease, the human form of BSE (humans do not actually die from BSE directly and the link between vCJD and BSE has yet to be proven). Of these three, two lived in the U.K. between 1980 and 1996 when Britain suffered an outbreak of vCJD.
Even if we accept the link between vCJD and BSE, the gross statistical risk of catching vCJD/BSE from U.S. beef is 1/100,000,000 (3 deaths out of a total population of 300 million). The Vegetarian Journal (2006) estimated the percentage of non-meat eaters at 6.7 percent, leaving at least 1/90,000,000. Assuming a Korean population of 48,000,000 consuming U.S. beef in CJ/BSE-inducing quantities, approximately 0.6 Koreans will die from vCJD/BSE, statistically. This is far less than almost any other cause of death in Korea, electric fans included.
Yet, this statistically insignificant threat (or more accurately, the hysterical response to it) may yet kill Koreans. If it is accepted that the FTA will add 2 percent to Korea's $1.26 trillion GDP (2007), the value of KORUS FTA to Korea can be estimated at $20.52 billion.
If the mad cow hysteria is allowed to sink the KORUS FTA, it will take approximately 25 Korean lives to make up the $20.52 billion shortfall. This figure is derived from the Korean occupational fatality rate of 1,533 in 2000 or 16.6 deaths per 100,000 workers reported by the Korea Occupational Safety and Health Agency. Dividing the $1.26 trillion GDP by 1,533 reveals that one Korean worker dies for every $820 million of GDP generated. Given the political climate in the U.S., KORUS FTA may very well fail not in Korea but in the U.S. and these anti-U.S. protests are certainly not helping.
Thus, Korea's youth are becoming hysterical over an issue they barely comprehend. May I recommend a more befitting target for their energy and passion: the national university CSAT entrance exam?
In November 2007, 600,000 students took the CSAT. Of them, one student committed suicide right after taking the test on November 15 by jumping from his apartment building, and twin sisters in Changwon, South Gyeongsang Province did the same in December after receiving their test scores, according to the JoongAng Daily (December 11).
Thus, at least three deaths out of 200,000 (1:200,000) died as a direct result of the CSAT. Given Korea's population of 48 million, we can infer a comparative figure of 240 deaths from the CSAT compared to less than one from BSE-contaminated beef (assuming a link with Creutzfeldt-Jakob in the first place).
The figure may be far higher as 764 students committed suicide between 2000 to 2006, according to MoE statistics (Daily Surprise, Jan 5, 2008, Internet). Of course, these students unfortunately end their lives for a variety of reasons, from bullying to humiliation by teachers to economic distress.
Nonetheless, the CSAT remains a far greater killer of Korean children than mad cows. Where are their candlelight vigils?
As for the argument that even one death from BSE-infected cows is too much, I would ask, ``Why stop at U.S. beef imports?'' Apply the same standard across the board. Look at all sources of mortality in this country and see the ramifications that even one death is enough to terminate a trade practice.
My intent is not to voice support of the FTA or necessarily change peoples' minds. Frankly, I neither see the people of Korea as ready for an FTA with the U.S. nor do I desire to influence the decisions they make concerning their own future.
Rather, I produced this out of frustration that this nation all too often allows its emotions to sweep all reason and perspective aside even at elite universities here.
Such a low level of public discourse, fueled by a non-critical media and over-politicized secondary school teachers' unions, will not only compound the difficulties this country and its graduates will face in a rapidly changing region but highlights the desperate need for educational reform at the most fundamental level.
The writer is an invited professor of the Korea University. He can be reached through pssylveku@yahoo.com
