 Urbanization is inevitable as society develops and seeks better living environment as has been the case in the Gangnam district in Seoul. But research has proven that such development does not have to be detrimental to human life. / Yonhap |
In developed countries, the discussion about urbanization is an almost finished chapter, while in others it still plays an important role in relation to national politics.
By Martin Kruse Urbanization in the modern sense characterizes the shift that happens when a society moves from primarily being an agrarian society to becoming an industrial and knowledge-based one. This trend reached a historic milestone in 2008. This was the first year in human history when more people lived in cities than in the countryside. This trend is also seen in developing countries. By 2025, more than half of the population in developing countries will live in cities. This is an increase of about 10 percent since 2007, and by 2050 the trend will result in 70 percent of the world’s population living in cities. This is an increase of 40.5 percent in 100 years, the greatest migration in world history.
In developed countries, the discussion about urbanization is in some an almost finished chapter, while in others it still plays an important role in relation to national politics and in particular how tax revenue is moved around, how the housing market develops, and how the growth of a knowledge society and experience economy will be able to attract talent. Fewer children are born in many European countries, more young people move to cities, and hence we see depopulation in large rural areas, strongly supported by a general tendency to settle where a critical mass is present. In other words, where other innovative and creative people live, where job prospects in specialized industries are better, and where you can become a part of the innovative knowledge elite and take part in “experience consumption.”
Urbanization in developing countries
If we look at developing countries, urbanization is basically an expression of people’s desire to fill the basic need for employment. The city is the framework for the dream of a better future, and functions as a magnet for the rural population. According to the World Bank, China only had 69 cities in the 1940s. Today, the number is 670 cities, 89 of which house a million or more people. In comparison, the United States has 37 cities of a million or more. In 1980, China’s urban population was about 191 million people, in 2007, 594 million, and within 20 years the number of people moving to the growing Chinese cities will surpass the entire population of the U.S. Such a migration implies major challenges for city planning, renovation and infrastructure.
In China, the urbanization process has caused other problems. Over 43 percent of rivers are affected by eutrophication and approximately one in five cities doesn’t meet China’s urban air quality standards, which are lower than those recommended by the World Health Organization. On top of that acid rain has been observed in over 50 percent of Chinese cities. For China the environment issues related to urbanization are becoming more important, however, for China that tries to limit internal strife, it is crucial that the growth of wealth continues unabated. The horror scenario would be urban poverty, which would destroy the cities’ cohesion from within. In trying to accommodate this massive increase in urbanization, China may, like many other developing countries, learn from the mistakes made in the West.
Cities in the west have gone through different stages. In the industrialization phase smog caused by the large amounts of coal being burned created a lot of air pollution. Later after coal burning was banned in cities smog caused by vehicle emission from internal combustion engines and industrial fumes took over.
Green urban transport
Today while many Western countries still fight air pollution many initiatives are changing them. In Copenhagen people are now bathing in the midst of the city something that was unthinkable just 15 years ago. For cities of the developing world, the hope is that the hard learned experiences of the West means that they are able to leapfrog the development stage and create new green smart cities. Cities that have integrated intelligent systems utilizing low-carbon urban transport solutions, water/waste networks that function in a sustainable manner and use renewable energy sources as part of urban building design.
Considering the future challenges in transportation and infrastructure and the great climate challenges that follow growing energy consumption, work is already being done with extensive metro systems. To prevent urban sprawl, cities are extended upwards rather than outwards. This lesson comes not least from Atlanta in the U.S. This is a city 160 km wide, meaning that its inhabitants drive an average of 106 km every day to get to work and get around town. Traffic congestion is one of the major problems for cities today. According to the Official Journal of the European Union annual congestion in urban areas cost the EU economy 1 percent of GDP. An effective transport system is crucial and transport systems all over the world are significantly under stress, no more so, then in the developing countries where we will see a significant increase in number of vehicles.
If congestion problems aren’t slowed this will result in a dramatic increase in CO2 emissions. In response a number of national strategies have been developed in different countries to expand public transport and reduce citizens’ dependence on private motoring. By and large, these strategies have met with limited success, partly because privately owned vehicles provide much greater flexibility and privacy than public transport. What is needed is even better public transport and greener car transport.
More than 20 years ago, an idea known as the RUF system was put forth in Denmark. The idea was based on combining cars and trains. The concept involves motorists leaving their homes as normal, but when they reach the motorway they link up with other cars on a monorail.
The benefits of this approach are that it reduces air resistance, increases safety and cuts fuel consumption. However, the RUF concept never really stood a chance as the infrastructure costs would be too high. Nevertheless, the idea behind the RUF may well come to life in the new smart cities of the future.
More technology
More and more car models today feature sensors that can “read” the immediate surroundings of the car and warn passengers of impending danger; these sensors may soon even be able to take control of steering the vehicle.
Initially this technology was created for making cars safer, however the next step is to introduce even more intelligent systems, utilizing GPS, short-distance 24 GHz radar and automatic communication between vehicles and traffic control systems in order for the car to drive by itself.
The form of transport of the future may well become a wide range of vehicles in which the driver can sit and work, eat breakfast and do pretty much anything apart from actually driving. This would create a much more effective transport system and what is more, this development is not affected by whether the vehicles of the future run on gas, electricity, hydrogen or biomass, or whether they are powered by an advanced, petrol-powered internal combustion engine. The infrastructure will not present any obstacles, either, which is a significant advantage.
Green urban buildings
In OECD countries, buildings account for approximately 40 percent of energy consumption. The problem with the building sector is the slow renewal rate. The buildings’ mass renewal rate is only 1 percent per year, meaning that half of buildings in the world today will still be around in the year 2050. For the OECD the number is closer to 2/3. Consequently the biggest potential for CO2 reduction in OECD countries is in retrofitting and renovating the building mass.
By 2050 energy consumption in households will have increased by 67 percent. According to the IEA baseline scenarios however, the reduction potential is 83%. But this would require a meager 5 percent growth from 2007 to 2050: a great challenge, but not an impossible one.
The good news is that many of the measures that need to be implemented are actually measures that save us money in the long run. The Danish Building Evaluation Centre study on international building projects show that in a 20-year lifetime the extra cost of sustainable building is paid back 10-20 times through savings in energy, operation and health. Generally up front building expenditures account for only 15 percent of life cycle expenditures, where operations account for 85 percent. Heating, water and electricity appliances alone account for some 60 percent.
Better utilization of insulation, ventilation, lighting and energy efficient appliances coupled with an intelligent energy infrastructure are some of the ways we can bring down CO2 and at the same time create a healthier environment to live in. The smart green city of the future utilizes roof gardens to reduce heating and energy consumption as well as reducing cooling needs. Green buildings collect and reuse rainwater, and biological waste produced is used for biofuel. Buildings are becoming sustainable, as cement made from magnesium silicate demands less heating and absorbs 100 kg of CO2 during curing. The possibilities that new green cities give us are almost endless, and if we are to accommodate the many hundreds of millions of people that are moving to the cities greening them is the only way to go.
Environment info
Climate change
The most general definition of climate change is a change in the statistical properties of the climate system when considered over long periods of time, regardless of cause. Accordingly, fluctuations over periods shorter than a few decades, such as El Nino, do not represent climate change.
The term sometimes is used to refer specifically to climate change caused by human activity, as opposed to changes in climate that may have resulted as part of Earth's natural processes. In this sense, especially in the context of environmental policy, the term climate change has become synonymous with anthropogenic global warming.
Cars, trucks and other road transport vehicles, while essential for commercial and humanitarian work, exert a considerable adverse impact on the environment. Estimates are that road vehicles consume more than a third of the world’s supply of petroleum and contribute nearly one-fifth of global carbon dioxide emissions. These vehicles are also a significant source of air pollution which can adversely affect human health and the environment.Martin Kruse is a senior researcher at the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies (CIFS). Kruse has extensive experience in advising top management on issues of strategic concerns in various industries including retail, financial services, manufacturing and energy, as well as in the public sector. He primarily works with innovation and strategic issues concerning the water-energy-food-climate nexus.
