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| Ahn Cheol-soo, the presidential candidate and leader of the minor opposition conservative People's Party, poses with a restaurant owner before he begins a one-day experience as a part time delivery worker to listen to the difficulties of members of the service industry, in Bucheon, Gyeonggi Province, Sunday. Joint Press Corps |
Minor opposition candidate eyes 20-percent support
By Jung Da-min
The rival presidential candidates of the country's two major parties, Lee Jae-myung of the ruling liberal Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) and Yoon Suk-yeol of the main opposition conservative People Power Party (PPP), are set to face off in a two-way TV debate before the Lunar New Year holiday. The two sides are currently in discussions about the schedule before announcing the exact date of the debate.
The presidential election, slated for March 9, is approaching with about 50 days left to go. However, the rival candidates are still in a neck-and-neck race, as both are failing to find a breakthrough in their support rates which have dropped over allegations of corruption, illegal acts or scandals surrounding themselves or their family members. The two sides are expected to attack each other over such allegations during the scheduled TV debate, as they have agreed to discuss a wide range of topics related to state affairs ― meaning anything could be on the agenda.
Amid this situation, the rise of Ahn Cheol-soo, the presidential candidate and leader of the minor opposition conservative People's Party, is raising the question of whether the scheduled two-way TV debate between Yoon and Lee should be changed to a three-way one, including Ahn.
Ahn's rise as a third party candidate has been observed in many recent opinion polls.
According to a survey of 1,001 adults conducted by local pollster Gallup Korea from Jan. 11 to 13, Ahn garnered 17 percent of the respondents' support, raising expectations that his support rate could rise to over 20 percent, which political watchers considers as an inflection point or threshold for Ahn to have power to influence the presidential election, with more support from swing voters.
In the Gallup poll, Ahn ranked third, following the DPK's Lee at 37 percent and the PPP's Yoon at 31 percent.
Ahn's support rate has increased remarkably over the past month. His rise is widely seen as a result of the continued drop in Yoon's popularity as well as increasing support from swing voters, who had remained undecided over whom to pick as the country's next leader. In another Gallup survey conducted a month ago from Dec. 14 to 16, Ahn's support rate was five percent, while Yoon's support rate was 35 percent and Lee's was 36 percent.
Some political watchers said that the scheduled TV debate will not have much influence over voters' choice of their preferential candidates, citing cases of past presidential elections. But others said that it is more likely that this year's presidential election will be affected by the results of the TV debate, when more voters have said that they could change their preferred candidates, in recent opinion polls.
According to a survey of 1,000 adults conducted together by four local pollsters ― Embrain Public, Kstat Research, Korea Research International and Hankook Research ― from Jan. 10 to 12, 29 percent of the respondents said they could change their preferred candidates. The percentage of those who said that they could change their preferred candidates was especially high among those in their 20s and 30s, with those percentages at 55 percent and 44 percent in each group, respectively. Young people in their 20s and 30s are considered the major swing voters in this year's presidential election.
Further details of each survey are available at the websites of polling agencies or the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.
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