Yoon-Xi summit unlikely any time soon

President Yoon Suk-yeol and Chinese President Xi Jinping / Yonhap

South Korea's IPEF participation barrier to Yoon-Xi meeting

By Kang Seung-woo

The summit between South Korea and the United States has now passed and the attention is on how early President Yoon Suk-yeol will sit down with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, given the importance of Seoul-Beijing relations. China is South Korea's largest trading partner. Plus, the two leaders have already expressed their wishes to hold a summit in the near future.

But it is highly unlikely to occur anytime soon due to China's "unhappiness" about the Yoon administration's decision to stand with Washington amid the intensifying U.S.-Sino rivalry as well as its other domestic issues, according to diplomatic observers, Monday.

During U.S. President Joe Biden's visit to South Korea over the weekend, President Yoon showed signs of coming closer to the U.S. position ― a dramatic shift from the Moon Jae-in administration's so-called "balanced diplomacy" between the powerhouses ― that will undoubtedly frustrate the Chinese government, which had tried, in the recent past, to keep the South Korean government in check.

"Biden's Asia trip boils down to the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) and the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), both of which are aimed at strategically countering China's economic and military rise, but South Korea has decided to join the IPEF, making the Chinese government uncomfortable," said Chung Jae-hung, a research fellow at the Sejong Institute.

The Quad is a four-way strategic forum, comprised of Australia, India, Japan and the U.S., while the IPEF is an economic initiative, launched Monday in Japan after Biden initially unveiled the plan last October.

Xi sent Vice President and his close aide Wang Qishan to Yoon's inauguration ceremony, May 10, a move to urge South Korea to at least maintain the balanced diplomacy of the previous administration.

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"The South Korean government's decision has diminished the possibility of a Yoon-Xi summit in the near future because under the current circumstance, even if the two heads of state meet with each other, what common agenda would they discuss in a summit?," Chung said, adding that the two governments have different ideas on how to resolve North Korea's nuclear issue and China is also negative about South Korea and the U.S. expanding their combined military drills to deal with Pyongyang's threats ― an agreement from the recent Yoon-Biden summit.

"They cannot meet for the sake of meeting and their bilateral summit could be pushed back further than expected," Chung noted.

Former President Moon held a summit with Xi twice during his tenure, both of which took place in China, and it is time for the Chinese leader to make a reciprocal visit to South Korea, according to diplomatic practices.

In fact, former National Security Director Suh Hoon and China's top diplomat Yang Jiechiin agreed in August 2020 that the Chinese president will visit South Korea as soon as the COVID-19 pandemic is under control. Xi last visited South Korea in July 2014,

However, Wang delivered Xi's message of proposing a summit with Yoon, once again, in China although Yoon said he looked forward to seeing him in Seoul, a response that would also make their summit in person less likely for the time being.

"It is ridiculous that although the Chinese government agreed that Xi will make a visit to South Korea, it is now asking Yoon to come to Beijing," said Lee Sang-man, director of the China Center at the Institute for Far Eastern Studies.

"In that respect, Yoon is not expected to travel to China before Xi's trip to South Korea."

In addition, China's domestic issues such as the resurgence of COVID-19, the sluggish economy and more importantly, Xi's move to secure an unprecedented third term in power, also make it less feasible, Lee noted.

"As a matter of fact, China's domestic political circumstances are not favorable, forcing Xi to focus on local problems," he said.

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