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| Lee Jae-myung, the presidential candidate of the ruling Democratic Party of Korea, bows deeply to voters during a campaign stop in Chungju, North Chungcheong Province, Thursday. Yonhap |
By Kang Seung-woo
The presidential race has once again entered a period of uncertainty with less than two weeks left before the March 9 election, as the latest polls have found that the two leading candidates are still locked in a hard-fought contest.
Political watchers believe the results, which show downticks in approval ratings for Yoon Suk-yeol of the main opposition People Power Party (PPP), are the fallout from the breakdown of a campaign merger proposed by Ahn Cheol-soo of the minor opposition People's Party.
According to a survey by Embrain Public, Kstat Research, Korea Research and Hankook Research, Yoon with 39 percent led Lee Jae-myung of the ruling Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) at 37 percent within the margin of error, but Yoon had lost 1 percentage point from the previous survey, while Lee gained 6 percentage points. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 points at a 95 percent confidence level. The four pollsters interviewed 1,004 adults from Monday to Wednesday.
A Gallup Korea survey for MoneyToday, released Wednesday, showed that Yoon managed to lead Lee at 39 percent to 38.3 percent, compared with the outcome from two weeks ago, in which Yoon was ahead by 3.2 percentage points. The survey was conducted on 1,014 adults from Monday to Tuesday and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level.
In another survey of 1,002 people by Jowon C&I for Straight News from Saturday to Sunday, Yoon saw his lead over Lee shortened by 1.5 percentage points from 6.5 percentage points two weeks earlier. The poll also had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level.
One day earlier, a Hangil Research poll for Polinews also found that Yoon and Lee were running neck and neck at 42.7 percent and 42.6 percent, respectively. It was conducted on 1,027 adults from Saturday to Monday.
The latest results seem to have defied predictions that Yoon was an odds-on favorite to win the presidency.
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| Yoon Suk-yeol, the presidential candidate of the main opposition People Power Party, speaks during a meeting with former National Assembly speakers and lawmakers who have expressed their support for his presidential bid at the National Assembly Library in Seoul, Thursday. Yonhap |
According to Gallup Korea's weekly public polls, Yoon, a former prosecutor general, widened his lead over Lee, a former Gyeonggi Province governor, by up to seven percentage points in February.
However, after Ahn withdrew his offer to field a single candidacy for the opposition bloc with Yoon, Sunday, approval ratings for both Ahn and Yoon have declined as those who want to see the ruling party unseated have turned away from both candidates.
Either Yoon or Ahn was projected to defeat Lee easily in the hypothetical scenario of an opposition merger.
"The failure to field a unified candidate is the biggest reason for Yoon's decline in approval ratings," Hangil Research director and political analyst Hong Hyeong-sik said.
"According to joint polls by Embrain Public, Kstat Research, Korea Research and Hankook Research ahead of Ahn's offer, Yoon and Lee had been tied at 35 percent, but Yoon took a nine-percentage-point lead last week. However, the lead has shrunk to two percentage points."
Hong said a similar outcome had also been found in his company's survey as well.
In addition, the ongoing blame game between the two opposition parties over failing to unify their candidacies is expected to linger, which may further plague Yoon.
"The public sentiment is that Yoon is blamed for the campaign merger breakdown, as evidenced by recent polls, so the issue may affect the PPP candidate negatively," Hong said.
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