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| This photo, provided by the North Korean government, Saturday, shows a missile test from a railway in North Pyongan Province, North Korea, Friday. AP-Yonhap |
US expected to remain committed to diplomacy with Pyongyang
By Kang Seung-woo
The recent series of North Korean missile tests ― three times in two weeks ― indicate that its leader is doubling down on his country's nuclear arms buildup, rather than seeking more concessions before re-engaging in nuclear negotiations, according to diplomatic observers.
Despite the increasing frequency of missile tests, the U.S. government, already preoccupied with a difficult domestic situation as well as other diplomatic issues, is expected to maintain its commitment to diplomacy with Pyongyang, they added.
The Kim Jong-un regime fired hypersonic missiles on Jan. 5 and 11, followed by two short-range ballistic missiles launched from a train, Friday ― something unusual for the country, which had not conducted missile tests in January for the last 13 years.
"In order to know if a missile performs as intended, you must test them. North Korea has actually done less testing of new missiles than the U.S., China or Russia did in the past. So the main reason he is testing is it is essential for obtaining the capabilities he seeks," said Robert Manning, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.
"Kim appears to be trying to diversify his missile arsenal with 'tactical missiles,' as he has told us. … I'm not sure he's trying to get our attention to force concessions as the price of restarting diplomacy."
During last year's party congress, Kim unveiled a plan to expand the country's nuclear arsenal, with ultra-modern tactical nuclear weapons and hypersonic gliding-flight warheads.
Bruce Klingner, a former CIA analyst and senior researcher at the Heritage Foundation, echoed Manning's view.
"The first two launches this month were likely developmental testing of a new hypersonic missile with maneuverable warhead. The missiles had been displayed last year in an arms exhibition, but not tested before. The most recent launches appear to be either KN-23 or KN-24, which were tested extensively in 2019-20 and may not have yet been deployed," Klingner said.
"Because North Korea has repeatedly refused any form of dialogue with the United States, the missile launches were not intended to push Washington back to the negotiating table. The launches do indicate that North Korea will continue to defy U.N. resolutions that preclude it from any ballistic missile testing," Klingner continued.
Speculation is growing that the U.S. Biden administration, which has made unrequited offers to meet North Koreans "anywhere, anytime," may adopt a confrontational stance in response to North Korea's repeated military actions, but the experts rejected the conjecture.
"The Biden administration will continue to seek dialogue with Pyongyang to reach a diplomatic solution to the long-standing nuclear problem. Washington will also continue efforts to maintain sufficient allied deterrence and defense against the growing missile threat," Klingner said.
"Early in his term, Biden had vowed to enforce sanctions and, if necessary, increase pressure. The low number of entities sanctioned this month and last year were a proper start but, like previous administrations, the Biden administration continues to refrain from fully enforcing U.S. laws," he added.
Manning also said, "Biden is overwhelmed with domestic problems, the Ukraine and the Iran nuclear issue. While Biden remains open to unconditional talks with North Korea, there does not appear much interest at the moment for what is seen as high-risk, low-reward dealings with North Korea."
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