Seoul likely to be under continuous pressure to choose between Washington, Beijing

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After Biden-Xi summit, South Korea is urged to make most of diplomatic situation to its advantage

By Kang Seung-woo

The virtual summit between U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping, Nov. 15 (local time), was a welcome sign that the two powerhouses are likely moving toward a managed strategic competition to stop mounting tensions from turning into a catastrophe.

At first sight, South Korea, which has retained its longstanding course of keeping a "middle" ground in the U.S.-Sino competition, seems to now have some leeway from the rivalry. But many diplomatic observers believe nothing has changed for Seoul, which means competition will be the main theme governing U.S.-China relations in pursuit of their respective interests, with the South Korean government under constant pressure to choose between the two.

Since his inauguration in January, Biden has pursued stronger security cooperation with traditional allies, including South Korea, in thwarting moves by China, leaving the government here scrambling to seek measures to avoid possible diplomatic friction with Beijing. South Korea is still suffering from China's economic retaliation for its earlier approval of the deployment of a U.S. anti-missile shield on the Korean Peninsula.

Considering the fallout, Foreign Minister Chung Eui-yong has repeated the nation's stance that the U.S. and China are equally important partners for South Korea, indicating that Seoul will not pick a side between either Washington or Beijing. The U.S. is South Korea's long-time security ally, while China is its top trading partner.

During the three-and-a-half-hour talks, the first formal meeting between Biden and Xi since the U.S. president took office in January, the two heads of state spoke of the need for cooperation to ensure that competition does not veer into conflict.

"Biden said the U.S. and China needed to establish commonsense guardrails to prevent competition from turning to conflict, which can be interpreted that tension will be inevitable as Washington and Beijing continue to pursue their interests in the future. Given the American president's remark, competition will continue to be a defining feature of U.S.-China ties within a broader framework and it could further deepen," said Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University.

"With the bilateral ties showing a sign of becoming a zero-sum game, South Korea could eventually be forced to choose between the U.S. and China."

Soo Kim, a former CIA analyst now with the Rand Corp., expressed a similar view.

"South Korea will continue to feel pressure from the U.S. and China to choose between the two countries. We're unlikely to see Seoul's position change as a result of the Biden-Xi meeting. That is, we won't be seeing South Korea shift dramatically toward either country, because the pressure remains," she said.

"For Seoul to slightly shift its diplomatic position after the Biden-Xi summit ― when tensions between the two countries have been affirmed and intensified ― may provoke greater sensitivities from the two countries."

She also said the U.S. government may expect a more affirmative stance from its allies in the region, so South Korea will have to make sure it follows through on key alliance commitments.

However, Robert Manning, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, said the results of the Biden-Xi summit will not negatively impact South Korea's diplomatic realities.

"I suspect the Biden-Xi summit may take the sharp edge of U.S.-China competition, and make some degree of cooperation on North Korea (as we saw in the China-hosted six party talks) more likely," Manning said.

According to Manning, South Korea is in a difficult position more than most other middle powers and it has managed that reasonably well so far.

"There will always be difficult choices to make, but for at least the next two to three years, barring unintended consequences, I suspect we will see reduced U.S.-China tensions as both leaders are preoccupied with difficult domestic situations, and thus South Korea is not likely to be forced to unambiguously take sides," Manning added.

President Joe Biden listens during a virtual summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in the Roosevelt Room of the White House in Washington, D.C., Nov. 15 (local time). UPI-Yonhap

Ramon Pacheco Pardo, a professor of international relations at King's College London, said South Korea needs to make the most of its diplomatic situation and use it to its advantage.

"The summit has made clear that the U.S. wants to continue to compete with China in multiple areas," he said.

"In my view, Seoul can take advantage of this situation because both Washington and Beijing will seek to court the South Korean government and businesses. So South Korea can accrue benefits from this competition, as it has indeed done in recent months in areas such as semiconductors and electric batteries."

Despite possible pressure from the hegemonic competition, there was something, with which the South Korean government was content or relieved by from the summit, experts said.

"Perhaps the U.S. position that it would help Taiwan defend itself in the event of an attack might give Seoul some reassurance about its own security situation vis-a-vis North Korea. Seoul should have fewer doubts about the U.S. commitment, given its status as a treaty ally and the decades-long cooperation with Washington," Kim said.

Manning also said, "I think a modest sense of relief at the prospect of eased tensions should be welcomed."