Moon's push for end-of-war declaration losing momentum: experts

President Moon Jae-in speaks during the 76th session of the United Nations General Assembly, at U.N. headquarters in New York, Sept. 21. AP-Yonhap

Next president unlikely to continue declaration initiative

By Jung Da-min

With less than six months left before President Moon Jae-in leaves office, his administration is making last-ditch efforts in its push for a declaration to formally end the Korean War, which he re-emphasized in a speech at the U.N. General Assembly, Sept. 21.

But many experts say the possibility of Moon realizing his goal is very low, citing the different interests and political situations in the countries involved in the matter ― the two Koreas, the United States and China. And the chance of his successor ― whoever it will be ― to continue to pursue an "end-of-war" declaration also seems slim because they are likely to seek their own North Korea policy, they added.

Since taking office in 2017, Moon has consistently pushed for engagement with North Korea. After a reconciliatory mood was created on the Korean Peninsula with three inter-Korean summits in 2018, the President proposed the idea of end-of-war declaration in his U.N. speech that year. Moon's proposal has since been made consistently, although his tone has differed according to the progress in denuclearization negotiations between North Korea and the United States.

Political watchers say Moon is making the last-ditch effort for progress with his proposal, so that the declaration would become part of his North Korea diplomacy legacy, and the next administration could continue with an engagement policy toward the North, based on this and other inter-Korean agreements made during his presidency.

A boy looks at a photo of a screen capture from the April 27, 2018, inter-Korean summit between President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un at the Unification Observation Post in the border village of Paju, Gyeonggi Province, Oct. 4. AP-Yonhap

But they say such efforts are unlikely to yield tangible results, considering the different views and domestic politics of the countries directly involved in the 1950-53 Korean War. While the Moon administration wants an end-of-war declaration first and then negotiations on denuclearization and inter-Korean relations ― as he will soon leave office ― the other countries have no specific reason to hurriedly make a deal as they are more focused on domestic issues, according to political watchers.

Kim Jun-seok, a politics and diplomacy professor at Dongguk University, said it was very unlikely that China, the U.S. or North Korea would want to "give credit" to a president who will soon leave office as they will not be able to get any "returns" from him. Therefore they would be more interested in continuing negotiations with the next president.

When looking at the domestic political situation in China, President Xi Jinping is seeking an unprecedented third term after serving two five-year terms by 2023, by overturning a Chinese Communist Party resolution passed during the Deng Xiaoping era.

Chinese President Xi Jinping applauds during an event at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, Oct. 9, commemorating the 110th anniversary of the Xinhai Revolution. AP-Yonhap

"From Xi's point of view, a continuation of tensions on the Korean Peninsula helps internal solidarity in China," Kim said.

The professor said the U.S. is also uninterested in an end-of-war declaration at the moment, as President Joe Biden would want to show strong diplomatic policies to both the international community and the American people, following criticism over the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan.

"For Biden, making a reconciliatory gesture toward North Korea would be same as saying he wants to lose in next year's elections," Kim said, referring to the 2022 U.S. midterms in which all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate will be contested.

U.S. President Joe Biden addresses a press conference at the COP26 U.N. Climate Change Conference in Glasgow, the U.K., Nov. 2. AFP-Yonhap

Moon Sung-mook, a senior researcher at the Korea Research Institute for National Strategy, said North Korea's stance is an important variable among others in deciding the viability of President Moon's end-of-war proposal.

"North Korea's leader Kim Jong-un has presented two prerequisites for the declaration, according to the country's state media and the South Korean National Intelligence Service. The first is South Korea's dropping of double standards and the second is the South's withdrawal of hostile policies toward the North," Moon said.

"What they are asking by demanding a dropping of double standards is acknowledgement of their development of nuclear weapons and relief of related sanctions in the international community … What they are asking by demanding a withdrawal of hostile policies is abolishing joint military exercises between the South and the U.S. and the withdrawal of the United States Forces Korea troops … Kim Jong-un's message is clear that he is not interested in the end-of-war declaration itself but cares more about the two prerequisites."

Moon said even though Kim agrees with President Moon's proposal as a starting point of denuclearization negotiations, the current COVID-19 pandemic situation, under which the North's isolation from the international community has been strengthened, is adding to the difficulties of holding any summit between the leaders.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un delivers a speech during an event to celebrate the 76th anniversary of the country's Workers' Party of Korea in Pyongyang, in this Oct. 10, photo released by the North Korea's state-run Korean Central News Agency, the following day. Yonhap

He also said the U.S. government's stance on declaring an end to the war is also different from that of South Korea in that Washington wants significant progress in denuclearization negotiations with the North ahead of any deal.

Despite such difficulties and obstacles ahead, the Moon administration is still seeking to make a progress in its push for the declaration. South Korean Ambassador to the U.S. Lee Soo-hyuck said during a press conference in Washington, D.C., Tuesday, that South Korea and the United States were actively discussing the possibility of the declaration, and working on drawing up a draft for it.

As to whether Moon's North Korea policy will be continued with by the next administration, Prof. Kim said the ruling Democratic Party of Korea's presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung is likely to pursue a similar engagement policy if elected, while the main opposition People Power Party's candidate Yoon Seok-youl is expected to seek strengthening the South Korea-U.S. alliance and continuing dialogue with the North at the same time.

"But it is unlikely that either Lee or Yoon, if elected, will continue to seek a declaration ending the war following the Moon administration, as there are obstacles ahead and so they are likely to pursue their own North Korea policies," the professor said.