Military urged to prepare for personnel shortage amid demographic cliff

Men wait for a physical examination prior to conscription at the Seoul Regional Military Manpower Administration in Yeongdeungpo District, Seoul, in this Feb. 3, 2020, photo. Korea Times file

By Jung Da-min

Calls are growing for the government to discuss how to deal with an upcoming personnel shortage in its armed forces, as the country is facing a demographic cliff, a major drop in the working population amid low birthrates.

The military has already been reducing the armed forces to counter the demographic cliff as well as pursue a change in the method of warfare by switching its previous “troop-intensive” structure to a “technology-intensive” one. The number of troops has been cut from 618,000 in 2017 to 530,000 this year, and the military is planning to reduce it further to 500,000 next year and maintain it at that level.

According to the government's statistics, about 330,000 of the current 530,000 active service members are conscripts enlisted for their mandatory military service. To maintain the armed forces around 500,000 every year when the service period for the enlisted is about 18 months, the military needs about 222,000 new conscripts every year.

Currently, all able-bodied men of Korean nationality over 20 years old must carry out mandatory military service. Considering that about 10 percent of those subject to conscription are unable to perform military service due to health or other issues, the male population of the age group needs to be at least over 247,000 for the military to recruit active service members stably.

Men listen to the explanation regarding physical checkups for conscription at the Seoul Regional Military Manpower Administration in Yeongdeungpo District, Seoul, in this Feb. 3, 2020 photo. Korea Times file

However, the prospects look dim as the population in the relevant demographic is expected to drop below 240,000 starting in 2025. The military would still be able to manage to keep the number of active service members at 500,000 by utilizing the existing surplus manpower or reducing the demand for alternative service members. But further measures will be needed, as the demographic segment is forecast to drop to less than 200,000 by 2037. A fundamental solution is needed by then, as the situation will quickly get worse, with the demographic segment being expected to drop to 120,000 to 146,000 in 2041.

Debates underway over conscripting women, moving to volunteer military system

Debates have already been started as to how to deal with the projected shortage in military conscripts. Among the suggested solutions are introducing mandatory military service for women or making the move to a volunteer military system.

Such debates have actively been made in in the political sphere, especially starting earlier this year ahead of the next presidential election slated for next March. Among those who made their bids for the presidential race, some relatively young politicians, including 50-year-old Rep. Park Yong-jin of the ruling Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) and 53-year-old Rep. Ha Tae-keung of the main opposition People Power Party (PPP), have claimed that the current conscription system needs to be changed to encompass both men and women, although they differ in the details, such as the service period.

Noncommissioned officers joining the Republic of Korea Army in the second half of 2021 attend their induction ceremony at the Korea Army Non-Commissioned Officer Academy in Iksan, North Jeolla Province, Aug. 27. Courtesy of the Republic of Korea Army.

But their proposals for mandatory military service for women faced criticism that the two politicians were trying to draw support from young men while instigating a gender conflict by saying that it is to reduce the “negative impact of forcing young men to spend a year and a half in mandatory military service.” Critics also said that the military is not yet ready to embrace more female service members, as seen in recent high-profile sexual assault incidents in all branches of the military.

Following criticism that the military's macho hierarchical culture is to blame for past and ongoing sex crimes against women in the military, debates on mandatory military service for women have lost momentum. Reps. Park and Ha also failed to advance in their respective parties' primaries. But the matter is still considered an issue for the next presidential election.

While the presidential hopefuls are divided over the issue of introducing mandatory military service for women, many of them say they would consider a partial or full-scale move to a volunteer military system.

However, the Ministry of National Defense has kept a cautious stance on the issue.

As to a volunteer force system, the ministry says that there are some preconditions, such as drawing a social consensus, securing enough in terms of finances, and guaranteeing peace on the Korean Peninsula. It also said a prudent approach is needed because the transformation, once done, would be irreversible.

Members of the Republic of Korea Armed Forces give a demonstration of a joint landing operation during the 73rd Armed Forces Day Ceremony in Pohang, North Gyeongsang Province, Oct. 1. Pohang was the location where the United Nations forces made their first landing operation during the 1950-53 Korean War. Korea Times file

If the military adopts a volunteer force system, social conflicts over the matter of evading mandatory military service are expected to be reduced, but the maintenance costs are expected to increase considerably.

As to the matter of conscripting women, the ministry said it also needs a careful approach, as it is not only about the military personnel shortage but also about gender equality.

In the meantime, the ministry is planning to increase the ratio of female noncommissioned and commissioned officers, as well as the total ratio of both male and female officers. It is also planning to increase the percent of civilian staff in the military so that its armed forces can focus more on military-related tasks rather than administrative work.

In its mid-term plan for 2022 to 2026, announced in early September, the ministry said it will increase the current 201,000 noncommissioned and commissioned officers to 202,000 by 2026, while increasing its civilian staff from the current 53,000 to 62,000.

But critics said that the ministry's plan is not a fundamental solution for the projected personnel shortage.