Moon's proposal to end Korean War faces feasibility questions

President Moon Jae-in addresses the 76th session of the United Nations General Assembly in New York, Tuesday (EST). Yonhap

Unresponsive Pyongyang, Washington-Beijing rivalry stymie talks

By Nam Hyun-woo

President Moon Jae-in once again renewed his call for a formal end to the 1950-53 Korean War in an effort to bring peace to the Korean Peninsula, but the feasibility of his proposal is questionable, given the state of relations between the two Koreas and the U.S.

During a speech at the 76th session of the United Nations General Assembly in New York, Tuesday (EST), Moon proposed a trilateral or quadrilateral declaration to proclaim a formal end to the Korean War.

The war ended in an armistice signed in 1953 by the U.S.-led United Nations Command, China and North Korea, leaving the two Koreas technically still at war.

"Today, I once again urge the community of nations to mobilize its strengths for the end-of-war declaration on the Korean Peninsula, and propose that the three parties of the two Koreas and the U.S., or the four parties of the two Koreas, the U.S. and China, come together and declare that the war on the Korean Peninsula is over," Moon said.

"When the parties involved in the Korean War stand together and proclaim an end to the war, I believe we can make irreversible progress in denuclearization and usher in an era of complete peace," he added.

Unlike a peace treaty, which requires parliamentary level approval, an end-of-war declaration would be a non-binding political statement, thus an easier step for both Washington and Pyongyang.

Due to the relative ease of signing such a declaration, President Moon has been championing the idea since 2018, when inter-Korean relations were at their best in recent years, saying that it would serve as a gateway to peace on the peninsula. He officially proposed the declaration to the international community during last year's U.N. General Assembly. At the time, he did not clarify who should make the declaration, but this time, he specified that the two Koreas, the U.S. and even China could be involved.

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As the President has now specified which countries could be involved in signing the declaration, this proposal is being interpreted as an attempt to find a breakthrough in the inter-Korean stalemate during his presidency, which will end in May next year.

A missile being launched from a train in an undisclosed location in North Korea is seen in this photo released by North Korea's state-run Korean Central News Agency, Sept. 16. Yonhap

However, Moon's proposal seems unfeasible, considering that inter-Korean relations are deadlocked with the North seemingly continuing on with its nuclear program, while remaining silent toward repeated calls for talks from South Korea and the U.S.

Recent developments in the missile programs of both Koreas are also against the peace narrative that Moon is pitching. On Sept. 15, the South Korean Navy successfully test-fired a domestically developed, submarine-launched, ballistic missile, while on the same day, North Korea launched a ballistic missile from a train, signs that the two Koreas are trying to show each other their military strength.

The conservative main opposition People Power Party (PPP) criticized Moon's proposal, saying that peace cannot be achieved through a declaration, but must come through North Korea taking action to show its commitment to denuclearization.

"The North fired cruise and ballistic missiles from a train less than 10 days ago," PPP vice spokesperson Kim Yeon-joo said in a written commentary. "This act reveals that the Korean Peninsula's situation has not changed, despite the three inter-Korean summits and two Pyongyang-Washington summits under the Moon government," Kim said, adding that Moon did not mention anything about the North's missile launches during his U.N. speech.

Rep. Tae Yong-ho of the PPP, who is a former North Korean diplomat, also said that an end-of-war declaration should be considered only after North Korea makes a meaningful move towards denuclearization.

"So far this year, North Korea has begun carrying out its nuclear program as planned by restarting its nuclear facilities in Yongbyon and by test-firing ballistic missiles. With North Korea escalating its nuclear threat, an end-of-war declaration will only cause North Korea to misbelieve that it may see the withdrawal of the U.S. Forces Korea from the Korean Peninsula," Tae said.

U.S. President Joe Biden addresses the 76th session of the United Nations General Assembly in New York, Tuesday. Reuters-Yonhap

Rising tensions between the U.S. and China are also lowering the feasibility of an end-of-war declaration within Moon's presidency, because the Joe Biden administration has been stating that it will not engage in a top-down approach of meeting directly with North Korea leader Kim Jong-un or signing any "grand bargains." Involving China in a quadrilateral, end-of-war declaration is also unlikely, given the intertwined rivalry between Washington and Beijing.

During the U.N. General Assembly, Biden said that the U.S. seeks "concrete progress toward an available plan with tangible commitments that would increase stability on the Korean Peninsula," but did not elaborate further on North Korea issues, showing that Washington's diplomatic interests are currently focused largely on China and Afghanistan.