September: An important month for inter-Korean relations

North Koreans pay respect to statues of former North Korea leaders Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il in Pyongyang in this Sept. 9, 2019 photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency. Sept. 9 is North Korea's Foundation Day. Yonhap

Events marking joint UN admission, North Korea foundation scheduled

By Nam Hyun-woo

This September will mark an important month for the Moon Jae-in administration, as it is making its final efforts to improve inter-Korean relations before the President's term ends in May.

A series of key events are scheduled, including the 30th anniversary of the simultaneous admission of South and North Korea into the United Nations on Sept. 18, and the third anniversary of the Sept. 19 Pyongyang Declaration, signed by Moon and North Korea leader Kim Jong-un.

These occasions may open opportunities for Moon to send another peace message toward the Kim regime and to expect corresponding responses.

On the other hand, there are chances for the Kim regime to showcase its military strength or heighten bellicose rhetoric in another series of key events, such as North Korea's Foundation Day on Sept. 9 or the Supreme People's Assembly on Sept. 28.

According to Cheong Wa Dae, Wednesday, the presidential office has yet to make a decision on Moon's visit to the U.N. headquarters in New York, for the U.N. General Assembly's General Debate that will start on Sept. 21.

During his New Year speech in January, Moon stressed that this year marks the 30th anniversary of both Koreas' admission into the U.N. and that "the two Koreas should prove together that the peace and prosperity of the Korean Peninsula can be a help to the global community."

Given this remark, Moon is expected to deliver messages of peace to the North, regardless of his visit to New York, and to ask other U.N. members to continue their support for his peace initiative, while urging North Korea to engage in talks.

The third anniversary of the Pyongyang Declaration is also an opportunity for Moon to persuade North Korea to return to talks.

During their summit in Pyongyang three years ago, Moon and Kim shared their views that the Korean Peninsula must be "turned into a land of peace" and agreed to "cooperate closely in the process of pursuing the complete denuclearization" of the peninsula.

As an annex to the declaration, the two sides adopted the Comprehensive Military Agreement, in which the two Koreas would halt all hostile acts against each other and set buffer zones along their air, land and sea borders to reduce tensions and prevent accidental clashes. In doing so, the leaders also agreed to activate the Inter-Korean Joint Military Committee.

However, the committee has yet to have been organized, and the effectiveness of the agreement is being questioned following a number of provocations, such as the North's sudden demolition of the inter-Korean liaison office in Gaeseong last year, as well as continued cyberattacks on strategically important South Korean organizations. Last month, Kim Yo-jong, sister of leader Kim Jong-un, threatened to abolish the agreement in protest against the joint military exercises between Seoul and Washington.

"If Seoul sends messages to the North, it will likely be about requesting Pyongyang to respond to Seoul's calls through communication lines first," said Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies. "And then, it will urge the North to implement the Comprehensive Military Agreement and to activate the Inter-Korean Joint Military Committee."

Soldiers march during a military parade marking the 70th anniversary of the foundation of North Korea in Pyongyang, Sept. 9, 2018. Korea Times file

Against this backdrop, Pyongyang also has a number of key events fixed for this month. On Sept. 9, North Korea will celebrate the 73th anniversary of the regime's foundation, which is expected to be accompanied by various events that could raise tensions.

In the 2016 edition of this anniversary, the North conducted a nuclear detonation test at its Punggye-ri test site, marking its fifth but not final test.

Though experts say that the chances are slim for the North to conduct a nuclear test this year, the situation is building up similarly. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said in an Aug. 27 report that there were signs indicating that North Korea has restarted its nuclear reactor in Yongbyon. The report noted that there were new indications of the operation of a radiochemical laboratory, which is in charge of the reprocessing of nuclear fuels, a process required for producing plutonium.

"Though there were previous military provocations around the Foundation Day, chances are slim for the North to jump to a nuclear test right away, given the current stalemate in inter-Korean and U.S.-North Korea circumstances," Yang said. "Also, there are no signs of the Kim regime preparing a massive military parade right now. If there's any provocation, a test fire of new short-range ballistic missiles might be possible."

The Supreme People's Assembly on Sept. 28 could also be an important event in inter-Korean relations down the road.

The assembly is considered to be an organization that makes decisions on North Korea's internal affairs, such as laws and budgets, but there is a chance of the North using it as an event to reaffirm its commitment to its nuclear program and hardline strategies against the U.S.