New Northern Policy shows some results, but lacks deeper philosophy

Kazakhstan state visit sheds light on Moon's effort looking north

By Kwon Mee-yoo

President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev visited Korea last week, becoming the first foreign head of state to visit Korea since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, underscoring the significance of the Central Asian country in Korea's New Northern Policy.

While reciprocating President's Moon Jae-in's visit to Central Asia in 2019, President Tokayev discussed how the two countries will promote cooperation in the post-COVID-19 era at the Korea-Kazakhstan summit.

Moon emphasized during the summit, held on Aug. 17, that Kazakhstan is an important partner in the administration's New Northern Policy and that the bilateral relationship has a lot of potential in the future.

The New Northern Policy was established by Moon back in 2017 with an aim to strengthen economic and political cooperation with countries to the north of Korea. President Moon also launched the Presidential Committee on Northern Economic Cooperation to engage more actively with countries in the region covered by the policy.

The policy focuses on region-specific technology cooperation to deal with a variety of countries: from those of Eastern Europe to neighboring Russia and China. The focus for the Western Region, including Western Russia, Ukraine and Belarus, is technological cooperation in high-tech industries, while the focus of the Eastern Region, which includes the Russian Far East and the three northeastern provinces of China, is on building more substantial political and diplomatic partnerships with reinforced economic cooperation.

Central Asian countries such as Mongolia are noted in the policy for their great potential in terms of resource development and infrastructure. Based on strong historical and cultural bonds, Korea seeks to expand exchanges with more Central Asian countries, including Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan.

Kazakhstan President Tokayev's statement during his state visit resonates with Korea's efforts in accordance with the New Northern Policy.

"Korea is one of the most important Asian trading partners for Kazakhstan, with more than $6 billion of South Korean funds invested into Kazakhstan's economy. ... In terms of developing our bilateral relations, Kazakhstan has a special interest in Korea's advanced technologies and wants to introduce them into the Kazakh economy," Tokayev said.

The New Northern Policy has substantially increased trade, as well as people-to-people exchanges between Korea and countries in the New Northern region. Major areas of cooperation under the New Northern Policy include infrastructure ― namely the Trans-Korean Railway and Trans-Siberian Railway ― as well as energy, the operation of an innovation platform and other forms of investment.

The overall trade volume with the New Northern countries increased from $16.7 billion in 2016 to $30.5 billion in 2019, but slipped down slightly to $24.2 billion in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Thanks to the spread of hallyu, the Korean Wave, exports of consumer goods such as cosmetics and food have increased considerably, diversifying the export portfolio beyond traditional export items like automobiles, ships and machinery.

Korea also won a number of contracts for large-scale energy and infrastructure projects in the region, strengthening the basis for industrial cooperation. Notable projects include the front-end engineering design (FEED) for the Bukhara Oil Refinery in Uzbekistan, ferro-alloy electric furnace plants in Kazakhstan and the Kiyanly gas chemical complex in Turkmenistan.

The Korean government's Official Development Assistance (ODA) program also targets the New Northern countries of Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Tajikistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan to complement the policy. According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the amount of ODA being provided to New Northern countries jumped 1.65 times, from 47.3 billion won in 2017, to 77.8 billion won in 2021.

The Kazakhstan presidential visit also shed light on new areas of cooperation such as the Fourth Industrial Revolution sectors of digital infrastructure, big data, artificial intelligence and cybersecurity, as Tokayev showed interest in partnering with Korea's high-tech industries.

In March, the presidential committee rearranged the priorities of the New Northern Policy initiatives into eight key areas. Some of the major initiatives are disease control strategy and healthcare, as well as cooperation in the digital and green economies.

Korea's participation in green transition projects in the New Northern countries, such as a pilot project to overhaul aging water pipes and improve the waste management system in Uzbekistan, and a master plan for air quality control in Mongolia, shows where bilateral cooperation could expand in the future.

Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, left, bump fists with Korean President Moon Jae-in during their summit talks at Cheong Wa Dae in Seoul, Aug. 17. Joint Press Corps

Future of New Northern Policy

The New Northern Policy has produced noticeable results over the past four years, but Wi Sung-lac, former special representative for Korean Peninsula peace and security affairs and Korean ambassador to Russia, sees the achievements as partial.

"There were some achievements in bilateral relations with Russia and Central Asian countries, but the bigger, pivotal projects are going nowhere," Wi said in a phone interview with The Korea Times.

Wi was a staff member on Korea's northern diplomacy team decades ago, when Korea established diplomatic relations with Russia and China in the late 1980s and early 1990s.

"Establishing diplomatic ties with Russia and China was a big step for Korea, breaking away from Western-centric diplomacy. However, Korea's diplomatic mindset has remained in the Cold War era, rather than transforming into a global diplomatic strategy balancing among the U.S., Russia and China," Wi said.

He said Korea's diplomacy historically tends to focus on formality, and has made bombastic, unrealistic project proposals in Korea-Russia relations, such as the Trans-Siberian Railway, as well as electric and road infrastructure.

"Korea proposes these plans to Russia periodically, but little has been done. In the New Northern Policy, we can see the problems and limitations of Korea's previous northern diplomacy. To become a true strategic partner with Russia, Korea needs more than just words. The New Northern Policy should be approached with a critical mind and the relevant philosophical background," Wi said.

The New Northern Policy also needs to take another step as a prospective vision of national development, especially in the post-pandemic era of transformation, experts said.

Choi Young-mi, a political science professor at Chonnam National University, suggests improving the New Northern Policy from the perspective of defensive realism, in the study, "Limits and Prospects of Northeast Asia Plus Community of Responsibility: Focusing on the New Northern Policy."

She says that the existing discussions about the potential economic benefits of cooperation with the Northern countries should be upgraded to the level of security cooperation, and that the Moon administration needs to utilize existing regional cooperative institutions, combining them in more efficient ways to deal more concertedly with security threats.

Choi also said the New Northern Policy should not be recognized only as a change in Korea's diplomatic policy, but rather as a strategy toward "open regionalism."