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| Jeong Eun-bo, left, Korea's chief negotiator in defense cost-sharing talks with the United States, and his U.S. counterpart Donna Welton hold the latest round of negotiations in Washington, D.C., Sunday. Courtesy of Ministry of Foreign Affairs |
By Kang Seung-woo
Although Korea and the United States have finally closed a long-delayed defense cost-sharing deal hardly favorable to Korea, it is not just something Seoul can sit back and enjoy, according to diplomatic observers, as it is now expected to face demands from Washington in return to play a certain role as a long-time ally, such as participating in the U.S.-led anti-China coalition.
According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the U.S. State Department, Monday, the two sides have reached an agreement in principle on a new Special Measures Agreement (SMA) that determines Korea's contribution to the upkeep of the 28,500-strong U.S. Forces Korea (USFK). Although exact terms were not disclosed, the deal is likely to be a multi-year agreement to cover the U.S. military presence here, with a hardly favorable to Korea ― something it had continuously proposed previously.
"Thanks to the agreement, Korea now can be free of the burden of protracted SMA negotiations. However, in accepting the Korean government's proposal, the Joe Biden administration will want Korea to expand its role in the region," said Shin Beom-chul, the director of the Center for Diplomacy and Security at the Korea Research Institute for National Strategy.
"In that respect, the government will have to determine how to contribute to what the U.S. wants from it as an ally."
Kim Yeoul-soo, chief of the Security Strategy Office at the Korea Institute for Military Affairs, said the U.S. will increase its calls for Korea to join in its anti-China campaign.
"The Biden administration's policy is alliance-first and based on it, the U.S. is expected to demand that Korea play more of a role in the Indo-Pacific region," he said.
The SMA comes as U.S. State Secretary Antony Blinken and U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin are anticipated to visit Korea next week, raising speculation that the two countries will hold a 2+2 ministerial meeting for the first time in five years.
Kim expects that during the ministerial meeting, the U.S. will request Korea's participation in its anti-China coalition.
"The U.S. may discuss Korea joining the so-called Quad Plus or a semiconductor alliance, both of which are against China. It remains to be seen whether the Moon Jae-in administration will respond to the call," he added.
The Clean Network program, initiated by the previous Donald Trump administration, seeks to publicly rally countries and network operators against Chinese vendors. In addition, the U.S. government is also urging its allies to form a semiconductor alliance to counter China's technology push.
Given that China is Korea's largest trading partner, the government has been seen to be leaning toward Beijing over Washington in some matters, but Kim said that should Korea continue to neglect the U.S.' calls, it may face mounting pressure that would be difficult to deal with.
It has been also speculated that Seoul convinced Washington to accept its 13 percent increase proposal by offering to purchase U.S. military equipment.
However, Shin Jong-woo, a senior researcher at the Korea Defense and Security Forum, said the defense cost-sharing deal and military equipment purchases are two separate things.
"When Trump wanted Korea to hugely increase its contribution to the U.S. military presence, Korea's foreign and defense ministries floated the proposal, hoping that it would offset the U.S.' demand.
However, we were mistaken," Shin said.
"A country purchases military equipment because it needs it. … It is too naive to believe that the U.S. would lower its demand for Korea's share in costs for the USFK."
Although the SMA negotiations for 2020's share began in September 2019, negotiations had been deadlocked due to Trump's demand for a fivefold funding increase from Korea, or $5 billion (5.6 trillion won) per year. Later, the U.S. lowered the demand to $4 billion, but it was still far higher than Korea's request for a 10 percent rise from the previous agreement of $870 million.
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