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| A recent joint study by Harvard and three universities from England has found that about 8.7 million deaths from 2018, or one in every five deaths, was caused by fossil fuel air pollution, more than double the previous estimate. Korea Times file |
By Ko Dong-hwan
With the help of a tech-savvy 3-D model of atmospheric chemistry with a high spatial resolution that analyzed pollution globally and found clues leading to its impact on human health, a recent joint study by universities discovered that one in five deaths from 2018 ― that is, 8.7 million ― was caused by fossil fuel air pollution.
The study subverted a previously believed hypothesis that pollution driven by the burning of coal, petrol and diesel might be just as harmful as the effect of indoor secondhand smoke exposure. The study instead proved that fossil fuel combustion's health impact could be worse than that.
The findings add weight to a recent study from Asia that said comparing fossil fuel air pollution to secondhand smoke exposure substantially underestimates the risk of high concentrations of outdoor air pollution.
"Often, when we discuss the dangers of fossil fuel combustion, it's in the context of carbon dioxide and climate change, and overlooks the potential health impacts of pollutants co-emitted with greenhouse gases," said Joel Schwartz from Harvard University's Environmental Health Department. He is one of the six authors of the article, "Global Mortality from Outdoor Fine Particle Pollution Generated by Fossil Fuel Combustion," that was published in the journal, Environmental Research.
"We hope that by quantifying the health consequences of fossil fuel combustion, we can send a clear message to policymakers and stakeholders of the benefits of a transition to alternative energy sources."
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| Water vapor rises from the cooling towers of the lignite-fired Boxberg Power Station of the energy company, LEAG, in Boxberg, Germany, in October 2017. EPA-Yonhap |
The study used "GEOS-Chem," a global three-dimensional model of atmospheric chemistry, led by researchers at Harvard's John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences (SEAS). The model, which does a detailed simulation of the oxidant-aerosol chemistry of the troposphere, has been used by more than 80 groups worldwide to simulate the health impacts of particulate matter. Its results have been validated against other observations around the world that were surface-, aircraft-, and space-based.
GEOS-Chem uses a high spatial resolution to divide the globe into a grid with boxes as small as 50 kilometers-by-60 kilometers and to look at the pollution levels in each box. To model the concentrations of PM2.5 ― airborne particulate matter with a diameter of 2.5 micrometers or less ― generated by fossil fuel combustion, the researchers plugged into GEOS-Chem estimates of emissions from multiple sectors, such as the power, industry, ships, aircraft and ground transportation sectors, and simulated the detailed oxidant-aerosol chemistry driven by meteorology from the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office.
The researchers ― from Harvard as well as the University of Birmingham, the University of Leicester and University College London ― said the model is better than previous studies that had relied on satellite and surface observations, because they can't tell the difference between particles from fossil fuel emissions and those from dust, wildfire smoke or other sources.
"With satellite data, you're seeing only pieces of the puzzle," said Loretta Mickley from the SEAS, and co-author of the study. "It is challenging for satellites to distinguish between types of particles, and there can be gaps in the data."
Karn Vohra, a graduate student at the University of Birmingham and co-author of the study, also dismissed traditional satellite results. "Rather than relying on averages spread across large regions, we wanted to map where the pollution is and where people live, so we could know more exactly what people are breathing," Vohra said.
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| In this photo from Nov. 28, 2018, Greenpeace Korea calls for Korean banks and state companies to stop investing in building coal power plants in other countries, with a large-scale air balloon in shape of carbon emissions from power plant stacks, in front of Gwanghwamun Square in central Seoul. Korea Times photo by Shim Hyun-chul |
To link GEOS-Chem's estimates to assessments about their impact on human health, Schwartz and another co-author, Alina Vodonos, from Harvard's Environmental Health Department, developed a new risk assessment model. With the model, they found that globally, exposure to particulate matter from fossil fuel emissions accounted for 21.5 percent of total deaths in 2012, which fell to 18 percent in 2018, due to tightening air quality measures in China ― the country with the world's most fossil fuel emissions, alongside India and regions in eastern North America, Europe and Southeast Asia.
The joint study came after the previously written "Global Burden of Disease Study," the largest and most comprehensive study on the causes of global mortality, most recently stated that the total deaths from outdoor airborne particulate matter ― including dust and smoke from wildfires and agricultural fires ― were 4.2 million, less than half the figure from the latest study.
"Our study adds to the mounting evidence that air pollution from ongoing dependence on fossil fuels is detrimental to global health," said Eloise Marais from University College London's Department of Geography and co-author of the study. "We cannot in good conscience continue to rely on fossil fuels, when we know that there are such severe effects on health and viable, cleaner alternatives."
Climate Media Hub, a Seoul-based climate action advocacy organization, relates the joint study's significance to Korea, as the country has a high rate of death due to fossil fuel air pollution. An average of 80,962 people die each year due to this pollution, which is 30 percent of the total deaths in the country, according to the organization's head Kim Tae-jong.
"Thirty percent is the fourth highest rate in the world, behind Bangladesh, China and India, and that is only natural when South Korea boasts the world's highest concentration rate of coal power plants (on land)," Kim told The Korea Times. "The country must immediately reduce the use of coal-burning plants, which not only worsen particulate matter-bound air pollution, but also speed up the impact of climate change. We must hurry up with the transition to renewable energy, as it is safer".
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