South Korea has few options to calm North Korea over combined drill

U.S. Forces Korea Commander Gen. Robert Abrams, third from left, inspects a joint military exercise between South Korea and the United States in this October 2019 photo. / Korea Times file

By Kang Seung-woo

While North Korea is expected to respond strongly to an envisaged combined military drill between South Korea and the United States, including a show of force, Seoul has few options to properly tame Pyongyang's anger which will likely lead to heightening tensions on the Korean Peninsula, according to diplomatic observers, Monday.

However, they say it is a silver lining that the North's possible provocation would not be enough to spoil the South Korean government's peace initiative as the totalitarian state also remains cautious about its acts negatively affecting the new U.S. administration's review of policy toward it.

The allies are now discussing holding the annual springtime drill, which will be proceeded under the form of computer-simulated command post training, in the second week of March, with them fine-tuning the details such as how to program it, according to military officials.

However, given that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un warned against the "war game," it is highly likely that the North Korean regime will stage a military provocation. The Kim regime denounced the joint exercise as a rehearsal for an invasion.

"There is not any good way to stop North Korea from taking more belligerent actions in response to the combined drill even if the South Korean military keeps it as low-key as possible," said Park Won-gon, a professor of international politics at Handong Global University.

Park added the lone solution to keeping North Korean provocations at bay could be U.S. President Joe Biden's State of the Union address, scheduled for later this month, where he could deliver a conciliatory message to the North stressing the need for dialogue to settle the issue of the North's nuclear weapons program.

"While holding a military exercise, the U.S. State Department may offer unconditional negotiation, which cannot be accepted by the North due to its leader's strong warning against the drill," Park said.

Cho Han-beom, a senior researcher of the Korea Institute for National Unification, also said the North's strong response is likely due to the proclamation of its "supreme dignity" during its recent party congress.

"As Kim Jong-un made it clear during the eighth party congress last month that he stands against the joint exercise, the North will not sit back during the drill," Cho said.

He suggested its response could start with a denunciation of the training from Kim Yo-jong, the North Korean leader's younger sister and de facto No. 2 in the reclusive state, who is in charge of the country's foreign and inter-Korean policies.

"According to circumstances, the North can stage a counter military exercise," he added.

The combined drill comes as South Korea is seeking to regain wartime operational control (OPCON) of South Korean troops from Washington, which requires frequent military exercises to test and prove the South Korean military's preparedness.

Cho said the South Korean government needs to use the inter-Korean military joint committee to temper the North's fiery response, fully explaining the necessity of the training for the OPCON transition. President Moon Jae-in said during his New Year press conference in January that he can consult on the issue with the North via the channel if necessary.

However, the experts concurred that North Korea will not cross the U.S. "red line" to keep the Biden administration's dialogue-first policy toward the country intact without adversely affecting President Moon's Korean Peninsula peace process.

"Even if North Korea opts for military provocations, it could be limited to using short-range missiles or costal artillery near the Northern Limit Line against South Korea without provoking the U.S. government," Park said.

Cho added, "The Kim regime would also control the level of military provocations as the Biden administration is still reviewing its policy toward the country."

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