Korea faces growing calls to join Quad plus

The escalating U.S.-China strategic competition is resulting in unprecedented diplomatic challenges for Korea. One of the most pressing questions it faces is whether to join the Quad plus. Gettyimagebanks

Korea's bigger role for stability in Indo-Pacific region to be highlighted under the Biden administration

By Do Je-hae

Korea's reticence about joining a possible expansion of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), involving the U.S., Japan, Australia and India, is increasingly being called into question, and triggering concerns that the country could be isolated from the U.S.' Indo-Pacific strategy.

According to White House readouts, U.S. President Joe Biden did not use the term "Indo-Pacific" during his first phone call since taking office with President Moon Jae-in, Feb. 4, instead describing Korea as a "linchpin for peace and prosperity in Northeast Asia." Biden used the term Indo-Pacific in both his calls with the leaders of Japan and Australia.

The need for Korea's participation in a possible "Quad plus" network is gaining attention in the local policy community, particularly as the new Biden administration is expected to expand the Quad as a foundation for its Indo-Pacific strategy and is highly interested in working together with allies to counter China.

New U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, and Kurt Campbell, who is Biden's "Asia czar," are reportedly in favor of expanding the Quad. Regarding this, Sullivan said during a virtual event; "I think we really want to carry forward and build on that format, that mechanism which we see as a foundation upon which to build substantial American policy in the Indo-Pacific region."

The possible expansion of the Quad under the Biden administration is presenting a fresh diplomatic challenge for Korea, which wants to solidify the alliance with the U.S. but also wants to improve relations with China. Bilateral relations have yet to fully recover from the dispute over the deployment of a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), a U.S. anti-missile defense system, on Korean soil a few years ago. The Moon administration has placed high priority on improving relations with China, as shown in his phone call with President Xi Jinping, Jan. 26, even before the Korean leader had a chance to speak with the new U.S. president.

More experts are saying that it is time for Korea to end its policy of ambiguity on the Quad and to start playing a bigger role for stability in the Indo-Pacific region.

"Korea should do more with like-minded states to reinforce stability in the Indo-Pacific," Michael J. Green, senior vice president for Asia and Japan at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), told The Korea Times.

"'Strategic ambiguity' is not a winning strategy for Seoul since it looks like weakness to Beijing. If Korea joins the Quad, the Biden administration would be impressed and indebted to Korea. China will be unhappy but Seoul would need to stand firm. If Korea cannot find a way to stand up to Chinese pressure now, it will find itself in a much weaker position later when Beijing makes even bigger demands ― for example, when China insists on a neutral Korea with no alliances after unification."

Brad Glosserman, senior advisor to Pacific Forum, underlined that Korea should absolutely participate in an expanded format of the Quad upon a U.S. request, which would enable the middle power to play a role commensurate to its global stature while engaging in broader cooperation with participating nations.

President Moon Jae-in speaks on the phone with U.S. President Joe Biden, Feb. 4. The new U.S. leader did not mention Korea's role in the "Indo-Pacific" during their first phone call since Biden's inauguration last month. Courtesy of Cheong Wa Dae

"The Quad is intended to support the rule of law, regional stability and security," Glosserman told The Korea Times. "Joining the group would allow South Korea to participate more fully in regional security mechanisms and play a role commensurate to its status and capability. It signals Seoul's respect for a rules-based order and its readiness to support and sustain it. Inclusion in the Quad would also promote cooperation more broadly with participating nations."

Other experts said joining the Quad plus is a good idea for Korea, given the framework focuses primarily on cooperation among like-minded partners rather than being openly anti-China.

"I think that it would make sense for Korea to join an expanded Quad if it isn't openly anti-China. The Quad plus format, for example, has not been anti-China but rather pro-cooperation among its members," Ramon Pacheco Pardo, KF-VUB Korea chair, Institute for European Studies, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, told The Korea Times. "Thus, if the Biden administration presents the expanded Quad as an initiative to cooperate among those countries that share similar views about the future of Asia and the Indo-Pacific, I think that it would make sense for Korea to join. Also, an expanded Quad including Korea and others such as, for example, New Zealand, and perhaps Indonesia would look less anti-China than the current Quad. This is because these countries have a more balanced approach toward Beijing, instead of being antagonistic toward it. In a sense, a Quad plus could be an Asian version of the expanded G7, which isn't openly anti-China but rather pro-cooperation among like-minded partners."

China factor

A major consideration hampering Korea's decisiveness on joining the Quad plus is how it will affect relations with China.

China has protested the Quad and has been keen to ensure that Korea does not become a part of U.S.-led anti-China coalition in Asia. In this regard, China has made an unprecedented level of diplomatic outreach to Korea, sending two of its top diplomatic policymakers ― Yang Jiechi, a member of China's Politburo and a senior advisor to Chinese President Xi, and State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi ― to Korea last year despite the COVID-19 pandemic.

Under the intensifying U.S.-China competition, Korea has shunned making a clear position on the Quad. Korea participated in a meeting of Quad members and a few other countries in May 2020 on a COVID-19 response, but has generally been reluctant about the Quad concept so as not to provoke China.

"South Korea has already participated informally in discussions with Quad country members which have been dubbed the Quad plus so Seoul has not rejected the Quad entirely. A key concern for South Korea is if its participation in a more formalized Quad plus that focuses directly on China will result?in repercussions from Beijing. Of course, the U.S. would most welcome Seoul's participation," Andrew Yeo, professor of politics and director of Asian Studies at The Catholic University of America in Washington, D.C., told The Korea Times.

"China may express displeasure with Seoul's participation in the Quad, but even if South Korea stays out of the Quad, China might still exercise economic coercion and advance its interest at the expense of South Korea anyway. The concern with Chinese influence in the maritime domain is not just a South Korea concern, but a regional one."

President Moon Jae-in receives Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi at Cheong Wa Dae, Nov. 26, 2020. China has made an active diplomatic outreach to Korea amid its escalating strategic competition with the U.S. Courtesy of Cheong Wa Dae

Some experts underlined that Seoul should not be intimidated by Beijing when making a decision for its national interest.

"China of course would be unhappy with South Korea's participation, just as Beijing will be unhappy with any country that joins the Quad," Glosserman said. "China sees the coalition as aimed at containing it and will do all that it can to undermine the group's effectiveness. As in the case of the THAAD deployment, Beijing will seek to punish South Korea for such action. But as in that case, South Korea should not be intimidated, should prove to China that coercion will not work and South Korea will defend its own national interests as it defines them."

Others point out that joining the Quad plus not have significant impact on bilateral relations, given Japan, a Quad member, and China enjoy relatively sound relations on the diplomatic and trade fronts. The Chinese president considered a visit to Japan early last year.

"If an expanded Quad is presented as a means to contain China, then I would expect relations between Seoul and Beijing to suffer. But if the expanded Quad isn't presented as a vehicle to contain China, I wouldn't expect relations to take a significant hit," Pardo added.

"After all, Japan enjoys fairly good relations with China in spite of its role in the Quad. And Japan has signed the RCEP together with China and indicated that China could potentially join CPTPP as well, also in spite of its role in the Quad. With relations between Korea and China improving in recent years, I think that membership of an expanded Quad that isn't openly anti-China should therefore not affect relations, in the same way that Korea joining an expanded G7 hasn't resulted in a worsening of bilateral relations with Beijing."