Moon's changing stance on Japan linked to North Korea engagement: experts

President Moon Jae-in speaks during a New Year press conference at Cheong Wa Dae, Monday. / Joint press corps

By Kang Seung-woo

President Moon Jae-in's apparent shift in tone on Japan over the two countries' multiple disputes on historical issues is seen as part of his peace initiative of engaging North Korea, diplomatic experts said Tuesday.

However, his abrupt yet drastic about-face is still drawing skeptical responses from Tokyo, which suspects his sincerity, leaving a question mark over if his "politically-calculated" olive branch will pay off.

Relations between the neighboring countries have slumped to their worst level in years, sparked by Japan's imposition of export controls on three key materials critical for Korea's semiconductor and display industries in apparent retaliation for a ruling by the 2018 Korean Supreme Court ordering Japanese companies to compensate surviving Korean victims of forced wartime labor.

In addition, the Seoul Central District Court ordered Japan to make reparations of 100 million won ($90,000) each to 12 sexual slavery victims, further turning the fractious relations into hostile ones.

During his New Year press conference Monday, Moon recognized the 2015 deal with Japan to resolve the issue of wartime sexual slavery once and for all, and also that it would be undesirable if Japanese companies' assets in Korea were liquidated to fund compensation for the forced wartime labor.

His remarks were in stark contrast to the past. The Moon administration dissolved the 2015 deal, saying the deal, made under Moon's predecessor Park Geun-hye administration, was signed without proper consultation with the victims. In addition, it has maintained a stance of neither meddling in court decisions to respect the judicial branch, nor making a "political" decision on such matters.

"The President's remarks on Japan were the most forward-looking since his inauguration in May 2017 and they were aimed at taking advantaging of the Tokyo Summer Olympics as momentum to revive stalled nuclear talks," said Park Won-gon, a professor of international politics at Handong Global University.

According to Park, Seoul is seeking to again reproduce the PyeongChang effect, an improvement in inter-Korean relations based on a successful track record at the PyeongChang Winter Olympics in 2018, in which the reclusive state participated, thereby leading to both improved inter-Korean and U.S.-North relations.

Shin Beom-chul, the director of the Center for Diplomacy and Security at the Korea Research Institute for National Strategy, echoed Park's view, saying it was linked to inter-Korean ties.

"I think Moon is seeking to bring North Korea to high-level talks through the Tokyo Olympics," he said.

Along with the consideration for an advancement in relations between the two Koreas, Shin also said Moon pre-emptively responded to possible pressure from the incoming Joe Biden administration, which is expected to urge Korea to mend ties with Japan for its trilateral alliance to contain China.

According to Shin, Kurt Campbell, Biden's Indo-Pacific coordinator, and Jake Sullivan, the national security adviser, worked together for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and based on their past careers, they may seek to restore soured relations between Korea and Japan.

Despite the drastic change in Korea's attitude toward Japan, the Japanese government is not issuing positive responses.

After Moon's press conference, Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi urged Korea to stop making illegal demands linked to compensation for the sex slavery and forced labor issues, throwing cold water on Korea's conciliatory gesture.

"Although Korea is increasing its voice for rapprochement with Japan, there have been no practical actions from either the government or the ruling party, making Japan still hesitant," Park said, adding that Tokyo wants Seoul to enact a law to stop the recurrence of such tense issues.

Japan claims that the issues were settled under the 1965 pact between the two nations for the normalization of ties, in which Korea received grants and economic cooperation loans.

Shin also said, "The two countries have not had a serious discussion about the pending thorny issues, but the olive branch from Korea came out of nowhere. As a result, the Japanese side is questioning whether his remarks were sincere or politically calibrated."

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