3 risk factors for COVID-19 before vaccination begins

Quarantine officials in protective gear disinfect themselves at a nursing home in Incheon, Monday, following coronavirus infections there. Yonhap

By Bahk Eun-ji

Health experts have warned of the government's overly optimistic view on its fight against COVID-19, after the administration said that once vaccines are introduced, as early as February, the rate of critically ill patients will drop.

They say there are three risk factors for now ― variants from other countries, mass infections involving prisons and nursing homes, and the cold weather.

The nation reported 1,020 new COVID-19 infections for Sunday, according to the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency, Monday, which was a sharp rise from 657 for Saturday. Although the number of daily infections is usually smaller on weekends due to less testing, it was not the case for Sunday mainly because of soaring infections in a Seoul prison and nursing homes across the country.

“If we do not reduce the number of virus patients now, we may experience a fourth pandemic after the Seollal holiday,” said Kim Woo-joo, an infectious disease specialist at Seoul's Korea University.

Seollal, or the Lunar New Year, is one of the nation's biggest holidays involving family gatherings. The holiday falls from Feb. 11 to 14 this year.

Experts say one of the risk factors before the vaccine rollout is the mutant strain originating from the United Kingdom. The mortality rate of the mutant virus has yet to be clarified, but it is known that the strain is 1.7 times more transmissible.

Korea has reported nine cases of the U.K. coronavirus variant so far, as well as one case of another South Africa-linked variant.

To cope with any further spread, health officials are tightening restrictions on the entry of foreign nationals. Starting Friday, foreigners arriving at airports in the country must present a negative coronavirus test taken within 72 hours before their departure for Korea.

A series of infection clusters at vulnerable facilities such as geriatric hospitals and nursing homes is another risk factor.

Cases at nursing homes have explosively increased recently, and the death toll has also increased significantly. In the case of a geriatric hospital in Bucheon, Gyeonggi Province, where the largest number of COVID-19 patients was reported, the cumulative death toll reached 47 as of Sunday.

“Patients in nursing homes are usually elderly people suffering chronic or underlying illnesses, so they are more vulnerable to group infections and are likely to suffer severe symptoms that can lead to death,” Kim said. “However, the patients are not being transported to hospitals immediately due to cohort isolation measures, leaving the infected and non-infected together.”

In December alone, 14 nursing hospitals were put under cohort isolation, or group quarantine, and 996 infections and 99 deaths took place in those hospitals.

The last is a seasonal factor. As temperatures drop and the weather becomes colder, people tend to gather indoors, and this prevents them from keeping a physical distance from others. In addition, the coronavirus becomes more active when the temperature drops, and its survival period is extended.

Experts stressed that these three risk factors should be controlled to curb the current increasing trend of infections.

“Even if vaccinations start in February, it takes a certain amount of time for antibodies to develop. It should also be taken into account that influenza usually hits again around March or April,” said Chon Eun-mi, director of the respiratory center at Ewha Womans University Mokdong Hospital.