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| President Moon Jae-in and U.S. President-elect Joe Biden / Korea Times file |
By Kang Seung-woo
Despite growing speculation that the United States may play a mediating role in the ongoing dispute between Korea and Japan under the Joe Biden administration, diplomatic experts suspect that the new American president's brokering efforts will not be as active as some expect.
Tensions between Korea and Japan have shown no signs of abating, sparked by the latter's imposition of export controls on three key materials critical for the semiconductor and display industries here in apparent retaliation for a ruling by Korea's Supreme Court ordering Japanese companies to compensate Koreans who were forced to work for them before and during World War II.
Efforts to address the conflict between the U.S.' crucial allies in Asia were absent under the Donald Trump administration's foreign policy which showed a disdain for traditional alliances, but the president-elect's pledge to restore these is raising expectations that he could attempt to improve ties between the two countries to achieve a stronger trilateral posture.
"I suspect that the Biden administration will be much more active in helping both allies work to improve ties and deal with these contentious issues," Naval War College professor Terence Roehrig told The Korea Times.
But Roehrig added that only Korea and Japan can resolve the thorny issues between them, not the Biden administration, although the U.S. government could broker a rapprochement.
"The U.S. can help to bring both sides together, help to provide political cover for leaders in both countries, and encourage Seoul and Tokyo to pursue paths to manage their disagreements," he said.
"The U.S. can quietly help to remind both allies of the common interests they all have in multiple areas that are undercut by bad relations between Korea and Japan."
Ramon Pacheco Pardo, an associate professor in international relations at King's College London, echoed Roehrig's view of the new U.S. government's expected approach to the matter.
"I think that the Biden administration will try to gently press Korea and Japan to solve the wartime forced labor dispute," Pacheco Pardo told The Korea Times.
"Failing this, I think that the U.S. will try to make sure that the dispute doesn't stop cooperation on other issues such as joint naval exercises, intelligence sharing or global trade governance. With the Biden administration poised to strengthen cooperation with allies, it will try to make sure that Seoul and Tokyo at least cooperate on the many issues in which they share interests."
Usually, the former colonial power is on the receiving end of pressure to atone for its past behavior, according to Pacheco Pardo, as evidenced by the backlash against Japan in Germany or the U.S. when Tokyo has tried to have statues commemorating victims of wartime sexual slavery removed.
"I think that the Biden administration is in a tricky position because it would want to avoid picking sides between South Korea and Japan … But I don't think that the Biden administration will be willing to press Japan to address its history as other former colonial powers have done, including the wartime labor issue," Pacheco Pardo said.
In Korea, some scholars are concerned that the Biden administration may lean toward Japan in the diplomatic feud, as, according to them, the Barack Obama administration did when Biden served as vice president from 2008 to 2016.
However, the experts said it was an "overstretch" to think that the new American administration would side with Japan in improving ties between its allies.
"I don't think the Biden administration will favor one side or the other," Roehrig said, suspecting that Biden will approach these issues carefully with a full understanding of the difficult and delicate nature of Korea-Japan relations.
Pacheco Pardo also said, "I think it is well known that Japan is more willing to simply follow U.S. policy whereas Korea is more independent in its foreign policy. This might mean that the U.S. and Japan cooperate on certain issues where Korea remains more neutral, such as the Indo-Pacific policy.
"But I think that it is an overstretch to think that the U.S. will simply ask Seoul to neglect such an important issue for the sake of better Korea-Japan relations. I actually think that it is very difficult for the U.S. to mediate between South Korea and Japan today. It can try to make Seoul and Tokyo talk, but this isn't the Cold War era when Washington could simply tell allies what to do," he added.
Meanwhile, lawmakers of the three countries held a closed-door virtual meeting, Tuesday, exploring measures to solve the diplomatic row and deal with a rising China en route to strengthening the trilateral alliance.
In particular, they concurred that the three-way defense alliance has been undermined by the worsening of ties over the historical dispute and they need to restore the coalition's health.
The meeting was the second of its kind since the beginning of the 21st National Assembly in May, and a third will be held soon.
