Biden could restore broken alliance with Korea

Democratic Presidential candidate Joe Biden speaks at the Chase Center in Wilmington, Del., Wednesday. / AFP-Yonhap

By Kang Seung-woo

A change of administration from Donald Trump to Joe Biden means that South Korea, a crucial Asian ally of the United States, will finally get the respect it deserves but has been sorely missing for the last four years under Trump, according to diplomatic experts, Thursday.

The two nations may quickly wrap up deadlocked negotiations on pending bilateral issues, including the defense cost-sharing deal for the stationing of the U.S. Forces Korea (USFK), while Seoul could shake off the burden inflicted by the power struggle between the U.S. and China.

However, when it comes to North Korea's nuclear weapons program, it will take more time before the new administration become fully committed to the issue, which may see Pyongyang engaging in military provocations to once again elevate tension on the Korean Peninsula.

Biden was projected to have secured at least 253 electoral votes, just 17 short of the 270 needed to win the White House as of 5 p.m.

"Biden will attempt to return to traditional alliance management, which will ensure that the ROK and U.S. maintain a close relationship," Ken Gause, the director of the Adversary Analytics Program at CNA, told The Korea Times. ROK refers to the Republic of Korea, the official name of South Korea.

Ramon Pacheco Pardo, an associate professor in international relations at King's College London, also said ROK-U.S. relations will dramatically improve under a Biden administration that will seek to win back the trust of America's allies.

Biden recently sent a contribution to a Korean news agency, vowing to strengthen the alliance with South Korea rather than extorting Seoul with reckless threats to remove U.S. troops.

"His op-ed is a clear attempt to build bridges with South Korea. Furthermore, the people advising him on Korean and East Asian affairs are all supportive of the ROK-U.S. alliance," Pacheco Pardo said.

The allies have yet to finalize the cost-sharing negotiations for the USFK presence on the peninsula, with the deal being stalled after Trump demanded a 50 percent increase in Seoul's share from last year, or $1.3 billion (1.47 trillion won), while Korea has maintained its stance of a 13 percent increase.

Considering Biden's view of American allies, the two sides may quickly conclude a new defense cost-sharing deal, known as the Special Measures Agreement (SMA), with a more rational amount for South Korea, the experts noted.

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"Biden and his advisers see alliances not in terms of dollars and cents but how they knit important nations to Washington in an international system that has kept the peace broadly between the world's most powerful nations since the end of World War II. These alliances, according to Biden, are what make America a superpower and are Washington's greatest strength, something money can't ever buy, as many alliances like the U.S.-ROK alliance, were forged blood," Harry Kazianis, a senior director at the Center for the National Interest, said.

While the U.S.-China competition for global influence has been playing out, the Trump administration has urged the South Korean government to participate in its U.S.-led anti-China coalition, but the Moon Jae-in administration has been cautious about siding with its biggest ally because a stand against Beijing, Seoul's largest trading partner, could come at a large cost.

With Biden at the helm, South Korea will face less pressure from Washington, according to the pundits.

"A Biden administration would most likely ask Seoul to be wary of China's rise and keep an open mind when it comes to Beijing's intentions, but Biden would not demand some sort of pledge it would side with Washington against Beijing in every sort of dispute or crisis ― and I think that is the right approach," Kazianis said.

Pacheco Pardo also said, "I don't think that this pressure would be as open as it is under Trump right now. Thus, I think that South Korea would be able to maintain its current approach under Biden: a strong alliance with the US, along with strong economic links with China and more or less friendly diplomatic relations."

However, the nuclear talks between the U.S. and the North may remain stalled without a breakthrough, as evidenced by Biden's stance that he will sit down with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un only if the latter promises to abandon his nuclear programs. Most North Korea watchers do not buy into the idea that Pyongyang will halt its nuclear ambitions.

"The Biden administration would set up at least a multi-month pause on anything Korea related as Biden prepares to take power and then begins a two to three month policy review of his overall foreign policy strategy worldwide," Kazianis said.

Some forecast that the Biden victory will lead to the North committing a military provocation to capture the attention of the new U.S. president and seek to get him committed to the nuclear issue.

"I expect Kim Jong-un to test his administration very early with some form of provocative action," Van Jackson, a professor of Victoria University of Wellington and former Pentagon official, told The Korea Times.

"It looks to me like there's a high likelihood?of a nuclear crisis in 2021 because the United States is distracted by much more immediate, existential problems."

Park Won-gon, a professor of international politics at Handong Global University, also said the Biden administration may pay more focus on the COVID-19 pandemic and economic matters rather than the North Korea issue.

"In that respect, to bring its issue back into the focus of attention for the new administration, the North can opt for a provocation, but it may be directed toward the South near the Northern Limited Line (the de facto inter-Korean maritime border), not the U.S., for fear of ruffling the new administration's feathers," Park said.

The South Korean administration is seeking to regain wartime operational control (OPCON) of South Korean troops from the U.S. by 2022, but under the Biden administration, it would not be easy to meet the self-imposed deadline, according to Park.

"Given that President Trump was okay with the OPCON transition because of the cost that he thinks the presence of U.S. troops in South Korea entails, the Korean government has aggressively worked to meet the deadline. However, Biden promised to return the U.S. to its more traditional role on the world stage, so he would listen to the opinions of the field commanders," he said.

USFK Commander Gen. Robert Abrams recently said it would be difficult to complete the OPCON transition by 2022 due to a lack of the South Korean military's preparedness.

"In addition, amid the Sino-U.S. competition, American strategists believe that the U.S. holding up OPCON may work to its advantage. In that respect, it would be a daunting task to take over OPCON by 2022," Park added.