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| EPA-Yonhap |
By Kang Seung-woo
The U.S. presidential election remained still too early to call as of 5 p.m., Wednesday, keeping South Korea on its toes due to the rival candidates' sharply different views on foreign policy linked to its Asian ally.
Diplomatic experts believe that President Donald Trump spending four more years in office may seek to further force South Korea into following his "America First" policy, while a Joe Biden administration would mean returning to traditional alliance management.
The Trump administration has been under fire for straining Washington's relationship with its allies, including South Korea, over the past four years, as evidenced by his demand for a hefty hike in Seoul's contribution to the stationing of the U.S. Forces Korea, and pressure on the country to jump on the anti-China bandwagon despite Seoul's economic ties with Beijing.
"A Trump Administration would once again continue its demands for a big raise in Seoul's contribution to the U.S.-ROK alliance joint military costs," Harry Kazianis, the senior director of Korean studies at the Center for the National Interest, told The Korea Times. The ROK refers to the Republic of Korea, the official name of South Korea.
The allies have yet to finalize the cost-sharing negotiations for the USFK despite more than a year of negotiations. Trump has demanded a 50 percent increase in the South's share from last year, or $1.3 billion (1.47 trillion won), while Korea has maintained its position of a 13 percent increase.
"Seoul may need to find another way to satisfy Trump, perhaps by a purchase of needed military goods that could offset some of what Trump is demanding," he added.
If Trump stays in power for four more year, the Sino-U.S. competition for global influence is expected to further intensify, placing the South Korean government in the hot seat.
Some even predict a Trump victory will lead to his repeated diplomatic push, which may lead Seoul to question the reliability of the decades-long alliance between the two countries.
"If Trump stayed in power though, I wouldn't be surprised if South Korea decided to obtain its own nuclear weapons, jettison the alliance, and join the Quad. Sounds radical, but it would be a very different world," Van Jackson, a professor of Victoria University of Wellington and former Pentagon official, told The Korea Times.
On the other hand, a Biden administration is likely to try to restore the teetering alliance with South Korea, the pundits said.
"A Biden administration will definitely work to improve alliance relations and will seek a speedy and fair conclusion to the cost-sharing agreement. He has stated that he values the alliance and will likely follow through on improving relations," Naval War College professor Terence Roehrig commented.
Ramon Pacheco Pardo, an associate professor in international relations at King's College London, echoed Roehrig's view.
"I expect ROK-U.S. relations to dramatically improve if Biden wins the election," Pacheco Pardo said.
Citing Biden's contribution to a local news agency that vowed to strengthen the alliance with South Korea, he added, "He has repeatedly said that he wants to 'work with allies.' Furthermore, the people advising him on Korean and East Asian affairs are all supportive of the ROK-U.S. alliance. Thus, I would expect Biden to move quickly to conclude a new defense cost-sharing deal which is more rational for South Korea."
As for the U.S.-China hegemonic rivalry, South Korea may feel less pressure from its closest ally to stand against its largest-trading partner.
"Biden is less likely to force South Korea to pick a side in the ongoing competition with China, though competition will continue to be a defining feature of the US-China relationship," Jackson said.
North Korea issue
Even though North Korea's nuclear weapons program is a primary issue on the Korean Peninsula, regardless of who wins, the experts concurred that it would not be easily settled in the near future.
"North Korea will not give up its nuclear weapons for the foreseeable future ― not to Donald Trump, to Joe Biden or anyone," Kazianis said.
"However, if Donald Trump is reelected, I do think there is a better chance at creating the conditions for peaceful coexistence with a nuclear North Korea, while keeping denuclearization as the long-term goal, even if it is aspirational in nature."
"North Korea is not about to give up its nuclear program anytime soon until it has a peace agreement and substantial sanctions relief. Even after that, it will want to have a notional deterrent," said Ken Gause, director of the Adversary Analytics Program at CAN.
Even under a Biden administration, which is expected to focus more on the COVID-19 pandemic and economic matters than the North Korean nuclear issue, the Kim Jong-un regime may opt for a military provocation to bring it back into focus for the new administration.
"My gut tells me Kim would feel a lot pressure to raise the stakes, meaning Biden would do the same ― and would be back to the same old pressure for pressure crisis we always see every few years, and that could be quite dangerous," Kazianis said.
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