By Kang Seung-woo
U.S. President Donald Trump's COVID-19 diagnosis has "unexpectedly" eased diplomatic challenges for Korea, stuck in the middle of the struggle between the United States and China for supremacy, after it canceled a top American diplomat's trip to Seoul, which would have brought his counterpart from Beijing here and consequently dragged Korea into the hegemonic rivalry.
In the wake of Trump's coronavirus infection last week, U.S. State Secretary Mike Pompeo scrapped his planned visit to Korea and Mongolia, although he is now pushing ahead with a trip to Japan for a Quad Meeting with his counterparts from Australia, India and Japan. Quad refers to the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, which is a strategic forum established in 2007 to counter China's increasing power.
Pompeo's shortened trip to Asia may have delivered a blow to the Korean government, which wanted to promote President Moon Jae-in's drive for the end-of-Korean War declaration, but the cancellation also has a silver lining, meaning Korea will not be placed ― for the time being ― under pressure from the U.S. and China to pick a side. The U.S. is Korea's long-time security ally, while China is its top trading partner.
While Korea and the U.S. were arranging Pompeo's visit, initially scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday, rumors were flying around that the Chinese government was in talks with its Korean counterpart to send its Foreign Minister Wang Yi to Seoul as well, raising speculation that China was going tit-for-tat over Pompeo's visit. The Korean foreign ministry has yet to confirm Wang's visit.
"Korea has narrowly avoided finding itself in an awkward position following the trip cancellation," said Park Won-gon, a professor of international politics at Handong Global University.
According to Park, both Pompeo and Wang would have come to Korea with clear-cut agendas, with the U.S. wanting Korea to participate in its own Clean Network program and China cajoling Seoul into its own Global Initiative on Data Security.
The Clean Network program is the Trump administration's comprehensive approach to exclude Chinese tech firms from internet infrastructure used by the U.S. and other nations, while the Chinese initiative is aimed at countering the U.S. move.
"Pompeo's goal of the visit was to urge Korea to join the anti-China alliance and in that respect, the cancellation is giving leeway to the Korean government," Park said.
While announcing the trip cancellation, the U.S. State Department said Pompeo "expects to be traveling to Asia again in October," which does not seem feasible.
"As Trump is sick and the U.S. presidential election will be held on Nov. 3, Pompeo would not be able to rearrange his visit to Korea so soon, helping the country buy time at least until after the election," Park said.
With the Pompeo visit put on the shelf, it remains to be seen whether the Chinese foreign minister will visit Korea.
"I expect Wang to visit here," said Shin Beom-chul, director of the Center for Diplomacy and Security at the Korea Research Institute for National Strategy.
"However, his visit is more likely to focus on Chinese President Xi Jinping's trip to Korea."
Since President Moon last visited China in 2017, Korea has sought Xi's reciprocal visit to Seoul within this year to address remaining economic retaliatory measures imposed by China on Korea following the deployment of a U.S. anti-missile Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system here.
However, some analysts believe Pompeo's trip cancellation is an expression of frustration over Korea's still-ambivalent stance between the two powerhouses.
"I think Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha's skeptical remarks on the Quad may have impacted the U.S. decision," Shin said.
"Even if Pompeo had come here, he would not have gotten the answer the U.S. wants regarding the Quad. In that respect, there is no need for him to visit Korea."
Last month, Kang said in a virtual seminar that it was not a good idea to join the Quad to constrain China, which Shin believes is a diplomatic failure.
"We don't think anything that automatically shuts out, and is exclusive of, the interests of others is a good idea," Kang said.
Kim Yeoul-soo, chief of the Security Strategy Office at the Korea Institute for Military Affairs, expressed a similar view.
"Recently, senior government officials, including Deputy National Security Adviser Kim Hyun-chong, traveled to Washington, D.C., and they may have discussed issues related to the U.S.-China diplomatic row. Nonetheless, Pompeo did not come to Korea, which means the allies are not in the same boat on the matter," Kim said.
U.S. President Donald Trump's COVID-19 diagnosis has "unexpectedly" eased diplomatic challenges for Korea, stuck in the middle of the struggle between the United States and China for supremacy, after it canceled a top American diplomat's trip to Seoul, which would have brought his counterpart from Beijing here and consequently dragged Korea into the hegemonic rivalry.
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| U.S. State Secretary Mike Pompeo / Korea Times file |
Pompeo's shortened trip to Asia may have delivered a blow to the Korean government, which wanted to promote President Moon Jae-in's drive for the end-of-Korean War declaration, but the cancellation also has a silver lining, meaning Korea will not be placed ― for the time being ― under pressure from the U.S. and China to pick a side. The U.S. is Korea's long-time security ally, while China is its top trading partner.
While Korea and the U.S. were arranging Pompeo's visit, initially scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday, rumors were flying around that the Chinese government was in talks with its Korean counterpart to send its Foreign Minister Wang Yi to Seoul as well, raising speculation that China was going tit-for-tat over Pompeo's visit. The Korean foreign ministry has yet to confirm Wang's visit.
"Korea has narrowly avoided finding itself in an awkward position following the trip cancellation," said Park Won-gon, a professor of international politics at Handong Global University.
According to Park, both Pompeo and Wang would have come to Korea with clear-cut agendas, with the U.S. wanting Korea to participate in its own Clean Network program and China cajoling Seoul into its own Global Initiative on Data Security.
The Clean Network program is the Trump administration's comprehensive approach to exclude Chinese tech firms from internet infrastructure used by the U.S. and other nations, while the Chinese initiative is aimed at countering the U.S. move.
"Pompeo's goal of the visit was to urge Korea to join the anti-China alliance and in that respect, the cancellation is giving leeway to the Korean government," Park said.
While announcing the trip cancellation, the U.S. State Department said Pompeo "expects to be traveling to Asia again in October," which does not seem feasible.
"As Trump is sick and the U.S. presidential election will be held on Nov. 3, Pompeo would not be able to rearrange his visit to Korea so soon, helping the country buy time at least until after the election," Park said.
With the Pompeo visit put on the shelf, it remains to be seen whether the Chinese foreign minister will visit Korea.
"I expect Wang to visit here," said Shin Beom-chul, director of the Center for Diplomacy and Security at the Korea Research Institute for National Strategy.
"However, his visit is more likely to focus on Chinese President Xi Jinping's trip to Korea."
Since President Moon last visited China in 2017, Korea has sought Xi's reciprocal visit to Seoul within this year to address remaining economic retaliatory measures imposed by China on Korea following the deployment of a U.S. anti-missile Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system here.
However, some analysts believe Pompeo's trip cancellation is an expression of frustration over Korea's still-ambivalent stance between the two powerhouses.
"I think Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha's skeptical remarks on the Quad may have impacted the U.S. decision," Shin said.
"Even if Pompeo had come here, he would not have gotten the answer the U.S. wants regarding the Quad. In that respect, there is no need for him to visit Korea."
Last month, Kang said in a virtual seminar that it was not a good idea to join the Quad to constrain China, which Shin believes is a diplomatic failure.
"We don't think anything that automatically shuts out, and is exclusive of, the interests of others is a good idea," Kang said.
Kim Yeoul-soo, chief of the Security Strategy Office at the Korea Institute for Military Affairs, expressed a similar view.
"Recently, senior government officials, including Deputy National Security Adviser Kim Hyun-chong, traveled to Washington, D.C., and they may have discussed issues related to the U.S.-China diplomatic row. Nonetheless, Pompeo did not come to Korea, which means the allies are not in the same boat on the matter," Kim said.
