Korea paying keen attention to US election

President Donald Trump waves from the top of the steps of Air Force One at Andrews Air Force Base in Md., Wednesday, Sept. 2. AP-Yonhap

By Do Je-hae

The U.S. presidential election has emerged as a primary concern for Korean policymakers dealing with foreign affairs and national security.

Above all, the increasingly complex bilateral challenges have highlighted the need for Seoul to establish strategies best suited for maximizing the nation's interests and advancing its alliance with the U.S. in the post-election period. In this regard, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has launched a taskforce team to prepare for the results of the race between U.S. President Donald Trump and his Democratic rival, former Vice President Joe Biden.

New First Vice Minister Choe Jong-kun leads the team consisting of officials from relevant departments in the ministry, including the Office of Korean Peninsula Peace and Security Affairs and the Bilateral Economic Affairs Bureau, according to the ministry, Thursday. The ministry explained that the team was formed to identify the presidential election pledges and policy positions of the two candidates and analyze their possible impacts on diplomacy, security and economy.

As a key presidential aide, Choe was one of the pivotal figures in organizing the summitry between President Moon Jae-in and North Korea leader Kim Jong-un. He spoke on the phone with U.S. Ambassador Harry Harris and U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun this week to discuss key alliance issues.

Choe Jong-kun, right, first vice minister at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, greets U.S. Ambassador to Korea Harry Harris during a meeting at the ministry headquarters in central Seoul, Aug. 31. Yonhap

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A primary reason for Korea's keen interest in the U.S. election has to do with the North Korea issue. The Moon administration wants to advance relations with North Korea, but knows also there are limitations under the U.S. sanctions campaign against Pyongyang and the deadlocked U.S.-North Korea denuclearization talks.

Experts contacted Thursday by The Korea Times said that both candidates present opportunities and risks for Korea's diplomacy and national security.

"If President Trump wins reelection, we can expect continued volatility in the U.S.-South Korea alliance. Trump and his officials will likely continue to have a chaotic, unstrategic approach to many regional problems. This presents both opportunities and risks," said Mason Richey, professor of international politics at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies.

"In particular Seoul will find it hard to navigate between Washington and Beijing. If Biden wins the presidency, I expect he will attempt very quickly to patch up rough alliance relations, including those with the Moon administration. On the other hand, his North Korea policy will likely revert to something like strategic patience 2.0, which would not provide the Moon administration with much opportunity to advance inter-Korean reconciliation."

Democratic presidential candidate former Vice President Joe Biden speaks in Wilmington, Del., Wednesday, Sept. 2, 2020, about school reopenings. AP-Yonhap

Other experts say another four years of Trump may be more suitable for Moon's policy on North Korea, but Korea will continue to be dogged by trade issues and defense costs.

Sean King, senior vice president with Park Strategies, said Trump was the first U.S. president to directly engage a North Korean leader and this suits Moon's Korean Peninsula agenda. "If President Trump's reelected, expect continued direct U.S. engagement with North Korea and a possible peace declaration. Washington, under Trump 2.0, would also keep harassing Seoul over trade and defense costs. Former Vice President Biden, as president, would be less likely to engage North Korea directly while at the same time not badgering South Korea over trade and defense burden sharing. He would also approach North Korea more from an alliance-based perspective and take more seriously Japan's North Korea concerns (e.g. medium- and short-range missiles, abductees, etc.)."

The multi-dimensional diplomatic challenges of the new Cold War between the U.S. and China are expected to be a top concern for Korea regardless of who takes the White House.

"South Korea is an American ally, but it also maintains a strategic partnership with China. It will be extremely difficult for Seoul to take a pro-American balancing strategy or to bandwagon China's rise," Moon Chung-in, special adviser to President Moon for foreign affairs and national security, said in a previous Korea Times interview.

"To get out of this dilemma, South Korea needs to take a more prudent approach to balancing diplomacy. In so doing, Seoul needs to make a major breakthrough in inter-Korean relations. Improved inter-Korean relations will serve as a very valuable buffer to the China-U.S. strategic rivalry on the Korean Peninsula."