Is Moon becoming a lame duck president?

Moon losing support base amid key policy failures

By Jung Da-min

Most previous presidents who have led the country since the direct presidential election system was introduced in 1987 have experienced political challenges in their fourth year with their tenure slipping into a lame duck period.

With President Moon Jae-in, who took office in May 2017, entering his fourth year there are signs that he could follow in the footsteps of his predecessors.

Some political watchers say signs of a political slump for Moon have already emerged, citing the continuous fall in his approval rating and hints of defiance among his supporters over key policies ― two important characteristics of a lame duck presidency.

The support rate for Moon, which hovered over 70 percent in early May following the nation's good response to the COVID-19 pandemic and the ruling Democratic Party of Korea's (DPK) landslide victory in the April 15 general election, has been on a steep decline, falling to 39 percent in a Gallup Korea poll, Friday.

The drop has become clearer in recent weeks amid criticism of the government's latest real estate policy, which produced the opposite result of its intention of preventing speculative purchases and stabilizing the housing market. Public sentiment became even more negative as some senior Cheong Wa Dae officials owning multiple homes were reluctant to sell their properties despite the presidential chief of staff's recommendation to do so.

Kim Hyung-joon, a professor at Myongji University, pointed to several signs indicating a political slump for Moon.

“The core situation of the political slump in a president's fourth year is the loss of support from their base,” Kim said. “In Moon's case, women, people in the capital area and those in their 30s or 40s were his core base, but they have broken away from him because of his policy failures.

“The thing is when Moon is being criticized over the failure of his real estate policies in particular, there are no alternatives he can present, because it is hard for real estate policies to take effect within a short time.”

Kim said the lame duck situation has been common for previous presidents and Moon will be no exception, adding there are several common features of fourth-year slumps that emerged in the past.

“One of the striking features of the political slumps in the previous administrations was a clash with the already-established powers-that-be and the future-oriented powers, which means that members of the ruling bloc who are seeking to run in the next presidential election want to differentiate themselves from the incumbent administration,” Kim said.

He added that criticism of the Moon government would arise from within the ruling party because public opinion toward the incumbent administration is already deteriorating. He also said the bureaucracy would turn its back on the administration as there is a tendency not to risk challengeable policies toward the end of a presidency.

Some DPK members have already started to criticize the hesitancy of Cheong Wa Dae secretaries to sell their homes, claiming this made the public lose their trust in government policies.

“How fast and how strong a lame duck situation comes to pass is the central issue. The ruling bloc's solidarity appears to be strong with the DPK securing about 180 seats out of the 300-strong National Assembly, but this solidarity is rather like a crystal in that it can always be shattered,” Kim said.

Political analysts say concerns of Moon becoming a lame duck have already been raised since earlier this year, but the government's successful dealing with the COVID-19 situation delayed action on them and resulted in high support ratings for Moon and the ruling bloc in the April general election.

However, the situation has since changed and the approval ratings for Moon and the DPK have been falling amid controversies over the ruling bloc's key policies, including employment and real estate, as well as poor performances on national security and diplomacy with North Korea. Its unilateral push to pass controversial bills on the real estate policies despite strong protests from the main opposition United Future Party (UFP), in particular, has also contributed to the downward trend in the ratings.

Now, the UFP has overtaken the DPK, with the release Monday of a survey conducted by Realmeter on 2,515 adults that showed 36.3 percent supported the UFP, while 34.8 percent expressed support for the DPK. This was the first time since October 2016 for conservatives to overtake liberals in the ratings.

Hwang Tae-soon, a political commentator, said the ruling bloc managed to put off the timing of its political slump with its victory in the April 15 general election, but now faces strong protests from people over the controversial real estate policy.

He said this would make the DPK want to distance itself from the incumbent President, because the party's ultimate goal is to create the next administration.

“When the people want to judge the incumbent ruling bloc for its policy failures, the ruling party diverts all such criticism onto the President, while it elects new leaders seeking to differentiate the party from the incumbent administration,” Hwang said.

Political watchers also said the DPK's national convention set for Aug. 29, at which the party will elect its new leadership, will also affect the political map. Former Prime Minister Rep. Lee Nak-yon, former four-term lawmaker Kim Boo-kyum and two-term Rep. Park Ju-min are competing for the party chairmanship.

Prof. Kim said the ruling party could be divided if Lee, who has been leading surveys of potential presidential candidates for more than a year, is elected as party leader. He said that while some members would remain firm in supporting Moon, others would want to shift support to the “new power” represented by Lee.

But other political watchers say Moon still has an opportunity to win the support of the people.

“The lame duck situation is inevitable for the Moon government, but it is still in a favorable situation compared to previous administrations in that the ruling party won an overwhelming victory in this year's general election,” said Choi Young-il, a political commenter and adjunct professor at Kyung Hee Cyber University.

“Although there are side effects from the ruling party's unilateral control of the National Assembly, it is better than having less power than the main opposition. Besides, Moon's approval ratings hovering around 40 percent show he still has a solid support base.”

Choi also said it had yet to be seen whether Lee will be elected as the new DPK leader and whether this will make the party break from Moon.

“If Lee seeks to run in the next presidential election, what matters for him is how he can build a solid support base within the party. In this process, Lee could choose to keep on good terms with Moon as he did while serving as prime minister, while there could be situations in which Lee and Moon's supporters cooperate.”