Doubts raised over Moon's efforts on inter-Korean ties

President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un hold hands after signing a joint statement during their summit at the truce village of Panmunjeom, April 27, 2018. / Korea Times file

NK unresponsive as Panmunjeom Declaration marks second anniversary

By Do Je-hae

The second anniversary of the Panmunjeom Declaration today is raising questions about the effectiveness of the Moon Jae-in administration's renewed focus on improving inter-Korean relations following his party's April 15 general election victory.

The main outcome of the first summit between President Moon and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, the declaration was initially seen as a major impetus to significantly improve inter-Korean relations by reaffirming the leaders' resolve to reduce military tension and establish permanent peace on the Korean Peninsula.

"The Panmunjom Declaration was a diplomatic achievement, but its two-year anniversary is marked by disappointment and concern. North Korea has shown little to no willingness for inter-Korean cooperation and now its capability is in doubt with the uncertainty surrounding Kim Jong-un," said Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "Pyongyang could clearly benefit from Seoul's humanitarian assistance. But the Kim regime has demanded larger economic benefits that are not possible as long as North Korea refuses to denuclearize to earn sanctions relief. So Pyongyang is likely to focus on its domestic politics and military capabilities."

Some experts on the Korean Peninsula are pointing out that there is not much to celebrate the second year of the landmark agreement as North Korea remains unresponsive toward Moon's repeated call, irrespective of U.S. disapproval, for joining hands on economic projects.

"The second anniversary of the declaration is, unfortunately, a monument to failed diplomacy. Mostly this is the fault of bad faith by North Korea and incompetence by the Trump administration, but Moon has made mis-steps as well," Mason Richey, a professor of international politics at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, told The Korea Times.

"It is doubly unfortunate because a serious, long-term, well-managed diplomatic process on the Korean Peninsula might not only help lead to an acceptable conclusion on Pyongyang's nuclear weapons, but also create stability, which is a special concern during this tense time of rumors regarding the health of Kim Jong-un."

Election win sets Moon to push harder for NK policy

2020-04-24 10:56 | North Korea

Coming off a major ruling party election victory, the Moon administration has signaled that it will be more assertive with its North Korea policy. Seoul will mark the second anniversary of the Panmunjeom Declaration with a groundbreaking ceremony Monday to build a section of an inter-Korean railway by linking Gangneung on the east coast and the border town Jejin. The Gangneung-Jejin railroad is the South's section of the Donghae Bukbu Line, which was severed during the 1950-53 Korean War. This was one of the projects mentioned in the Panmunjeom Declaration.

U.S-China rivalry and Korean Peninsula

But there are rising concerns against the timing and effectiveness of such an active North Korea policy, particularly amid the rising U.S-China rivalry in the wake of COVID-19.

"U.S.-China relations are becoming more rigid, which will bring negative repercussions to the security situation on the Korean Peninsula in the second half of the year," Kim Sook, a former Korean ambassador to the United Nations, wrote in a recent column. "At such a time, the push for sanctions relief measures, such as tours to Mount Geumgang and economic cooperation, is a misjudgment and will act as a negative factor in the Korea-U.S. alliance."

The mood at Cheong Wa Dae is noticeably subdued, as the Korean Peninsula issue has been sidelined by relevant parties such as North Korean and the U.S. amid the COVID-19 pandemic. "President Moon will not take part in the ceremony, but will send out a message about his thoughts on the anniversary," a presidential aide said last week.

Moon has maintained that improving inter-Korean relations is not only good for the two Koreas but also instrumental in bringing Trump and Kim back to the denuclearization talks. But such line of thinking is increasingly contested amid concerns that Trump may lose interest in North Korea due to COVID-19 and the election season. "Trump is largely fixated on COVID-19, the U.S. economy and, above all, reelection. North Korea is clearly on the back burner, and is likely to stay that way," Richey said.

"It would be good if South Korean enterprise, particularly Hyundai Asan, responsible for much of both the Gaeseong and Geumgang zones, could resume playing a major role in opening up North Korea. Again, however, sanctions, the coronavirus and questions about Kim Jong-un's condition make South Korean investment in North Korea, trade and aid quite difficult at this time," said Donald Kirk, a correspondent and author based in Korea. "His real interest in North Korea is not likely to revive until after the election ― that is, if he wins."