Skepticism prevails over North Korea economic projects

President Moon Jae-in, left, and North Korea's leader Kim Jong-un speak in private during their first summit held at the truce village of Panmunjeom, April 27, 2018.

By Jung Da-min

While some have been hopeful about the resumption of inter-Korean projects after the South Korea-U.S. summit slated for April 11, many remain skeptical on the issue.

After the breakdown of the U.S.-North Korea summit in Hanoi in late February, the discussions on inter-Korean economic cooperation as well as the denuclearization negotiations have seen little progress.

But shares of the inter-Korean projects had been on the rise again recently, with expectations that President Moon would present a "small deal" to U.S. President Donald Trump, partial sanctions relief and gradual or step-by-step denuclearization of North Korea.

International relations experts, however, remain skeptical that Moon's small-deal approach will bring any substantial results while the Trump administration is sticking with its "all-or-nothing" strategy.

Ko Yu-hwan, professor of North Korean Studies at Dongguk University. Korea Times file

Koh Yu-hwan, a professor of North Korean Studies at Dongguk University, said it would be difficult to get tangible or specific results from this South Korea-U.S. summit, as the gap between the U.S. and North Korea over the scope of sanctions relief and denuclearization was too big and the two sides have shown little change in their stances.

"There is the possibility that South Korea will seek to negotiate with the U.S. on its own roadmap that could narrow the gap between the U.S. and North Korea, but the U.S. is keeping its principle that it will maintain sanctions on the North before its complete denuclearization," Koh said.

"South Korea is not in a position where it can ask for partial exemption of sanctions for inter-Korean projects, nor is it what North Korea is aiming for."

Koh said the kind of approach the South is seeking is not what North Korea has wanted, as the country seeks bigger benefits to revive its economy and overcome the losses caused by international sanctions.

"The South Korean side, when it comes to inter-Korean projects, talks as if it would be a great help for the North Korean side, when it does not really have a great impact on the North's economy," he said.

Cha Du-hyeogn, visiting research fellow at Asan Institute for Policy Studies. Korea Times file

Cha Du-hyeogn, a visiting research fellow at Asan Institute for Policy Studies, also expressed a dim view over the resumption of inter-Korean projects.

Cha said South Korea, if it wants to fulfill its role as facilitator between North Korea and the U.S., should hear from both sides first on what they want and will likely get no results from the discussions on inter-Korean projects before it.

"This kind of wishful thinking was prevalent before the second U.S.-North Korea summit in Hanoi and has continued until this South Korea-U.S. summit," Cha said. "But I would say the South is thinking only in the way it wants, without considering what Washington is thinking."

Cha said South Korea should take a different approach to be an honest broker, seeking changes in the North's attitude and persuading the U.S. side based on that.

He also pointed out the North was not responding to the existing agreements with the South, such as the Sept. 19 Comprehensive Military Agreement and Gaeseong liaison office.

He said South Korea should check the progress of implementing those agreements with the North first, before persuading the U.S. to take action.

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