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| U.S. Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats testifies during a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing on Worldwide Threats on Capitol Hill in Washington, Jan. 29. (local time). AP-Yonhap |
By Kim Yoo-chul
North Korea is unlikely to give up its nuclear program and nuclear weapons capabilities despite North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's repeated promises to dismantle the regime's nuclear arsenal, senior U.S. intelligence officials said early Wednesday (KST).
In testimony to the Senate Intelligence Committee, U.S. Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats said his agency assesses that North Korea will seek to retain its weapons of mass destruction because its leaders "ultimately view nuclear weapons as critical to regime survival."
Coats said the assessment was bolstered by observations of some activity that was inconsistent with full denuclearization.
CIA Director Gina Haspel also told the Senate that the diplomatic objective was still to insist that North Korea fully disclose and dismantle its nuclear program.
The testimony by U.S. intelligence officials suggests the U.S. may take a realistic approach to reduce threats from North Korea's nuclear weapons in upcoming nuclear talks, according to analysts in Seoul.
They said the U.S. may play out a "small deal" toward dismantling North Korea's nuclear program at the summit between their leaders.
"Among possible scenarios that could play out between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un at their upcoming summit, the most likely is that they could agree to a broad framework for a nuclear deal and then allow negotiators to work out the details over a longer period," Cho Sung-ryul, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Strategy, said.
Cho, who is also a member of the advisory group for President Moon Jae-in, said a mutually agreed outline for how the process moves forward and a sense of more specific nuclear details, with Trump relaxing some economic sanctions placed on the North, would be a "diplomatic win" for both sides.
"Neither leader will want to leave the meeting empty handed," Shin Bum-cheol, director of the Center for Security and Unification at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul, said. "Both Trump and Kim will offer up a symbolic concession to kick-start a much longer process, helping both countries negotiate an end to the nuclear standoff and avoid a terrible outcome."
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| CIA Director Gina Haspel testifies at a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing on "Worldwide Threats" Jan. 29 (local time) in Washington. AP-Yonhap |
Moon Sung-mook, head of the Korea Research Institute's National Unification Strategy Center, said Coats' comments were broad thoughts in Washington and North Korea may agree to freeze or reduce its nuclear arsenal, including inter-continental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), but not "entirely dismantle" its weapons program.
"Allowing international inspectors in North Korea to ensure that the regime has stopped improving its nuclear and missile programs does make sense as Washington regards ICBMs as a direct threat to the U.S. mainland," Moon said, adding possible U.S. reciprocal measures would include a combination of financial assistance, security guarantees and a path toward the normalization of relations.
North Korea is said to have several ICBMs. The Hwasong-15 is the North's longest-range ballistic missile, and is capable of carrying a nuclear payload to the U.S. mainland.
Pyongyang continues not only to produce ballistic missiles capable of threatening the United States, but also fissile material to create new warheads.
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