Halting joint military drills is 'good decision to build trust'
By Kim Jae-kyoung
Skepticism about North Korea's complete denuclearization still prevails both at home and abroad.
With a history of breaking promises over the past 25 years, the reclusive regime has not taken any tangible actions toward denuclearization since the historic summit between the United States and North Korea in Singapore on June 12.
Skeptics say that the North's recalcitrant leader will never give up nuclear weapons but Joseph DeTrani, a former special envoy for the six-party talks with North Korea, remains optimistic about the ongoing and future negotiations.
DeTrani, currently a professor at Missouri State University's Graduate Department of Defense and Strategic Studies in Fairfax, Virginia, believes that this time will be totally different from the past in three aspects.
3 reasons to be optimistic
The first thing that he thinks we should pay attention to is that the ongoing movement has been spearheaded by the top two leaders ― U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, not negotiators.
"The difference is that the two leaders are talking about these critical issues and coming up with the path to resolve it. It's their words and commitment. That changed the equation," he said in an interview with The Korea Times at The Shilla hotel in Seoul on June 28.
"In the past we were working through negotiators and looking for approval of leadership. It has been reversed productively. So it's a different equation," he added. "Literally, Kim, President Trump, Moon and Xi Jinping all are saying the same thing. We have never had this before."
The second reason he cited for his optimism is that the North's economy is in a dire situation.
According to DeTrani's assessment, without sanctions relief, Kim won't be able to push for economic developments he has promised to his people so he has made a strategic decision to denuclearize the isolated country.
"The key here is economic development. Kim has said that he had to do more for the people and we see elements of economic reform going on now. This is the path seemingly he wants to take," he said.
"If he has crushing sanctions and intimidating joint military exercises, (it means) total isolation. So I think he has made strategic decision to change that equation."
The third reason behind his optimism is his belief that Kim, who studied in Switzerland, is a different person from his father or grandfather.
"Recently, North Korea had worked with UNICEF. That's significant. I think he is a different leader and he wants to do more for the people," he said.
The former U.S. mission manager for North Korea, who helped broker a 2005 agreement on North Korea's nuclear program, said that since he has nuclear weapons, Kim might seek to prove himself by focusing on economic development.
"I think he wants to bring economic development to the North Korean people. I'm not saying he wants to lose central control but I believe he wants to open the economy up to improve the livelihood of the people. He knows he has to give up nuclear weapons to do that."
Why past deals failed
To dismiss rampant skepticism, the career U.S. diplomat stressed that the Trump administration should ensure two things first ― declaration of North Korea's all nuclear facilities, including non-declared and suspect ones, and coming up with verification protocols.
He said that declaration should be complete and totally comprehensive on nuclear weapons, plutonium facilities, uranium management facilities, how many and where they are, and persons who work in those facilities.
"To go forward, you really can't monitor anything until you know what you are monitoring. Once you know what you are monitoring, then you need North Korea to agree to let monitors visit non-declared, suspect sites," he said.
"This is where we failed with the joint statement in 2005. North Korea was not prepared to sign verification protocol," he added. "IAEA monitors routinely do this but we couldn't get the North in 2008 to sign this agreement. Now we need that."
One thing that he believes we have to be very mindful of is the pace of lifting sanctions because they are part of the calculus that got Kim to make his strategic decision
"If we start lifting sanctions prematurely I don't think that would be a smart move. I think we just need to keep everything in place," he said.
"The only way they get those sanctions removed is if they progress on denuclearization."
Regarding the U.S. and South Korea's move to halt joint military exercises, the Washington-based expert said that it was a step in the right direction to build confidence for the North's further actions.
"I think it was a good decision. Trump was making it very clear to Kim that we are sincere about security assurances," he said. "I think that the decision will give Kim assurances that we care about security."
In particular, he emphasized that focus should be placed on "halt."
"If North Korea is not implementing denuclearization they (joint drills) can be restarted," he said.
"I think we should speed it up but we also have to look at his base. I don't think that it depletes or diminishes our capabilities."
Moon deserves credit
The former director of the U.S. National Counter Proliferation Center said that there is no crystal ball but he thinks that the key reason Kim came to the negotiating table was to get rid of the sanctions, normalize relations with the U.S., and to get foreign direct investment.
"I believe that Kim is sincere and serous about denuclearization and economic developments," he said.
"If not, I don't think he would have met with Moon Jae-in on April 27, then President Trump on June 12 and three meetings with Xi Jinping," he added.
In order to show his sincerity, DeTrani said that Kim has got to move on to the nuclear issue.
"Returning the remains of POWs and reuniting separated families are all good but the core issue is the nuclear issue," he said.
He said that President Moon and his administration deserve credit for having Kim move toward denuclearization.
"I have a lot of respect for Moon. I personally think part of Kim's strategic decision was knowing he would be working with President Moon and the liberal government here that would be receptive," he said.
"So I give a lot of credit to President Moon for where we are now. I applaud everything he has done."
However, the veteran negotiator called on Moon to keep the alliance with the U.S. tight all the time.
"Having looked at these issues and worked with these issues since 2003, I always thought back that the North would always love to put a wedge between the U.S. and South Korea," he said.
"We can never permit that to happen. Regardless of how fast we move forward with denuclearization, that alliance has to be tight because we want peace and stability in the region."
DeTrani was the U.S. Representative to the Korea Energy Development Organization and president of the Intelligence and National Security Alliance.
By Kim Jae-kyoung
Skepticism about North Korea's complete denuclearization still prevails both at home and abroad.
With a history of breaking promises over the past 25 years, the reclusive regime has not taken any tangible actions toward denuclearization since the historic summit between the United States and North Korea in Singapore on June 12.
Skeptics say that the North's recalcitrant leader will never give up nuclear weapons but Joseph DeTrani, a former special envoy for the six-party talks with North Korea, remains optimistic about the ongoing and future negotiations.
 |
| Joseph DeTrani, a former U.S. special envoy for the six-party talks with North Korea, speaks to The Korea Times during an interview at The Shilla in Seoul on June 29. / Korea Times photo by Choi Won-suk |
DeTrani, currently a professor at Missouri State University's Graduate Department of Defense and Strategic Studies in Fairfax, Virginia, believes that this time will be totally different from the past in three aspects.
3 reasons to be optimistic
The first thing that he thinks we should pay attention to is that the ongoing movement has been spearheaded by the top two leaders ― U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, not negotiators.
"The difference is that the two leaders are talking about these critical issues and coming up with the path to resolve it. It's their words and commitment. That changed the equation," he said in an interview with The Korea Times at The Shilla hotel in Seoul on June 28.
"In the past we were working through negotiators and looking for approval of leadership. It has been reversed productively. So it's a different equation," he added. "Literally, Kim, President Trump, Moon and Xi Jinping all are saying the same thing. We have never had this before."
The second reason he cited for his optimism is that the North's economy is in a dire situation.
According to DeTrani's assessment, without sanctions relief, Kim won't be able to push for economic developments he has promised to his people so he has made a strategic decision to denuclearize the isolated country.
"The key here is economic development. Kim has said that he had to do more for the people and we see elements of economic reform going on now. This is the path seemingly he wants to take," he said.
"If he has crushing sanctions and intimidating joint military exercises, (it means) total isolation. So I think he has made strategic decision to change that equation."
The third reason behind his optimism is his belief that Kim, who studied in Switzerland, is a different person from his father or grandfather.
"Recently, North Korea had worked with UNICEF. That's significant. I think he is a different leader and he wants to do more for the people," he said.
The former U.S. mission manager for North Korea, who helped broker a 2005 agreement on North Korea's nuclear program, said that since he has nuclear weapons, Kim might seek to prove himself by focusing on economic development.
"I think he wants to bring economic development to the North Korean people. I'm not saying he wants to lose central control but I believe he wants to open the economy up to improve the livelihood of the people. He knows he has to give up nuclear weapons to do that."
Why past deals failed
To dismiss rampant skepticism, the career U.S. diplomat stressed that the Trump administration should ensure two things first ― declaration of North Korea's all nuclear facilities, including non-declared and suspect ones, and coming up with verification protocols.
He said that declaration should be complete and totally comprehensive on nuclear weapons, plutonium facilities, uranium management facilities, how many and where they are, and persons who work in those facilities.
"To go forward, you really can't monitor anything until you know what you are monitoring. Once you know what you are monitoring, then you need North Korea to agree to let monitors visit non-declared, suspect sites," he said.
"This is where we failed with the joint statement in 2005. North Korea was not prepared to sign verification protocol," he added. "IAEA monitors routinely do this but we couldn't get the North in 2008 to sign this agreement. Now we need that."
One thing that he believes we have to be very mindful of is the pace of lifting sanctions because they are part of the calculus that got Kim to make his strategic decision
"If we start lifting sanctions prematurely I don't think that would be a smart move. I think we just need to keep everything in place," he said.
"The only way they get those sanctions removed is if they progress on denuclearization."
Regarding the U.S. and South Korea's move to halt joint military exercises, the Washington-based expert said that it was a step in the right direction to build confidence for the North's further actions.
"I think it was a good decision. Trump was making it very clear to Kim that we are sincere about security assurances," he said. "I think that the decision will give Kim assurances that we care about security."
In particular, he emphasized that focus should be placed on "halt."
"If North Korea is not implementing denuclearization they (joint drills) can be restarted," he said.
"I think we should speed it up but we also have to look at his base. I don't think that it depletes or diminishes our capabilities."
Moon deserves credit
The former director of the U.S. National Counter Proliferation Center said that there is no crystal ball but he thinks that the key reason Kim came to the negotiating table was to get rid of the sanctions, normalize relations with the U.S., and to get foreign direct investment.
"I believe that Kim is sincere and serous about denuclearization and economic developments," he said.
"If not, I don't think he would have met with Moon Jae-in on April 27, then President Trump on June 12 and three meetings with Xi Jinping," he added.
In order to show his sincerity, DeTrani said that Kim has got to move on to the nuclear issue.
"Returning the remains of POWs and reuniting separated families are all good but the core issue is the nuclear issue," he said.
He said that President Moon and his administration deserve credit for having Kim move toward denuclearization.
"I have a lot of respect for Moon. I personally think part of Kim's strategic decision was knowing he would be working with President Moon and the liberal government here that would be receptive," he said.
"So I give a lot of credit to President Moon for where we are now. I applaud everything he has done."
However, the veteran negotiator called on Moon to keep the alliance with the U.S. tight all the time.
"Having looked at these issues and worked with these issues since 2003, I always thought back that the North would always love to put a wedge between the U.S. and South Korea," he said.
"We can never permit that to happen. Regardless of how fast we move forward with denuclearization, that alliance has to be tight because we want peace and stability in the region."
DeTrani was the U.S. Representative to the Korea Energy Development Organization and president of the Intelligence and National Security Alliance.
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