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| A man enters the Credit Suisse offices in the Manhattan borough of New York City, in this file photo. Reuters-Yonhap |
By Anna J. Park
Major Asian countries will experience key demographic changes consisting of a shrinking and fast-aging population, while the proportion of their workforces and capital provision, as well as productivity in the global market, are likely to decline further in the near future. This is according to the latest report by the Credit Suisse Research Institute (CSRI), titled "The global effects of Asia's aging population," which surveyed 6,000 people from the six most populous Asian countries out of 10 major regional economies.
The report stated that the 10 Asian countries made up 50 percent of aggregated global GDP during the past 10 years from 2009 to 2019. They also took up 60 percent of incremental goods exports during the period, while providing $5 trillion to the rest of the world, functioning as a key part of the global economy.
However, Asian countries are seeing these major demographic shifts coming faster than their economic transitions. The report stated that while their economies have grown two to three times faster than the pace at which the EU and the U.S. grew ― at similar income levels ― the drop in their fertility levels has been five to seven times faster. They're also aging faster.
"Whereas the average age in the EU and U.S. rose from 30 to 40 over half a century, this occurred in just 17 years in South Korea and 22-24 years in Japan, China and Thailand," the report reads.
The global workforce proportion of these countries is forecast to shrink by 2032, although they have made up more than half of the entire global working-age population since 2010.
The report went on to state that the future risks to the 10 major Asian countries' growth are related less to labor supply, and more to sluggish growth in capital deployment. Furthermore, many of the countries have been witnessing their total factor productivity growth ― or efficiency of use of labor and capital ― fall in recent years, creating a headwind for global growth.
