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Wed, February 1, 2023 | 01:32
Economy
BOK under pressure to cut key rate further
금융당국 "시장 불안 완화"…불확실성 장기화 경계
Posted : 2016-06-27 17:15
Updated : 2016-06-27 19:14
Nam Hyun-woo
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Bank of Korea Governor Lee Ju-yeol enters an elevator at the bank in central Seoul, Monday. Lee was scheduled to return to Korea Tuesday but came back a day earlier, Monday, to discuss measures for containing any domestic economic fallout from the U.K.'s choice to leave the European Union. / Yonhap
Bank of Korea Governor Lee Ju-yeol enters an elevator at the bank in central Seoul, Monday. Lee was scheduled to return to Korea Tuesday but came back a day earlier, Monday, to discuss measures for containing any domestic economic fallout from the U.K.'s choice to leave the European Union. / Yonhap

Gov't to unveil extra budget plan today


By Nam Hyun-woo

Bank of Korea (BOK) Governor Lee Ju-yeol is facing growing pressure to cut the central bank's key rate further to help contain the fallout of Britain's exit from the European Union, analysts said Monday.

The BOK unexpectedly cut the benchmark rate to a record low 1.25 percent earlier this month to cope with increased downward risks that have come amid plunging exports and the ongoing massive corporate restructuring.

Analysts say the Brexit decision will force the U.S. Federal Reserve to delay a planned rate hike, and market interest rates already reflect expectations of another rate cut from the central bank.

"On Monday, the interest rate of the three-year Korea Treasury Bond plunged below 1.25 percent, which is lower than the policy rate," said Lim Dong-min, an economist at Kyobo Securities. "This signals that the market is already expecting an extra rate cut."

He said increased downside risks for the Korean economy and prospects of weaker exports will add pressure to the BOK to act. "The slowdown in exports will likely continue, while domestic consumption will likely remain stagnant and the Brexit will anyhow affect the country's economy," Lim said. "Given that this will force the central bank to increase liquidity in the market, it will likely conduct a serious review over lowering the key rate."

Foreign analysts echoed Lim's view. Morgan Stanley said in a report: "We think the BOK could engage in further policy rate cuts to mitigate downside risks."

Bank of America Merrill Lynch also said that the possibility of a rate cut has been increased as the Fed may delay a rate hike until next year.

However, Lee said Monday that the financial entities should be more prudent.

Brexit gives wake-up call to politicians here
2016-06-28 19:01  |  National
Brexit to exert mixed influence on Korean industries
Brexit to exert mixed influence on Korean industries
2016-06-28 14:16  |  Companies
Seoul stocks open lower on Wall Street losses
Seoul stocks open lower on Wall Street losses
2016-06-28 09:28  |  Economy
Uncertainties keep market volatile
Uncertainties keep market volatile
2016-06-27 17:16  |  Economy
"The Korean economy, which is vulnerable to external factors, has no option to avoid negative effects from Brexit, but I believe financial entities do not have to respond too sensitively to short-term changes."

Extra budget in the pipeline

The fallout of Brexit also props up the necessity for the government to set up a larger supplementary budget.

The financial authorities have been wavering over implementing aggressive fiscal policies including a supplementary budget, but last week's Brexit decision led the government to lean on expanding its budget, while a number of research institutes are backing up the move with their timid growth outlook for this year.

The government will announce its economic policy guidelines for the second half of the year today. The announcement will include whether it will decide on a supplementary budget and how large it will be.

Though the popular opinion is that Korea's economy is "moderately exposed" to Brexit fallout — given its 1.4 percent reliance on U.K.-bound exports — analysts say increased uncertainties and downside risks will force the government to place a budget increase in the pipeline.

The government recently lowered its economic growth outlook this year from 3.1 percent to 2.8 percent. However, research institutions still doubt whether the country can meet the lowered target and voice the necessity of a super-sized supplementary budget.

Hyundai Research Institute said Sunday that there is "an urgent need for a supplementary budget" given that external factors including Brexit are affecting the Korean economy, which already is contending with massive corporate restructuring. It stressed the government needs to spend up to 26.6 trillion won.

Along with Hyundai Research Institute, private researchers have already released their growth outlooks that are lower than the government's 2.8 percent, stressing the necessity of the supplementary budget. Foreign researchers also echoed the domestic view, with Citigroup expecting 15 trillion won to 20 trillion won in extra spending to offset the fallout of Brexit, and thus improving Korea's growth outlook by 0.1 percentage points in the second half and 0.2 percentage points next year.

Amid increasing downside risks and ongoing corporate restructuring in the challenged shipbuilding and shipping industries, the government has been considering expanding its budget, but is making prudent gestures. One of the reasons is relevant laws state that such a budget can only be established when the economy is affected by a major crisis, including war, natural disaster or massive unemployment.

The current administration has come up with a supplementary budget twice, when the ferry Sewol sank resulting in the deaths of 304 people in 2014, and during the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome outbreak here last year.

However, as a report from Statistics Korea on June 15 showed an increasing unemployment rate, pundits say "the conditions are set" for another bout of spending.


금융당국 "시장 불안 완화"…불확실성 장기화 경계

국내 금융시장을 강타한 '브렉시트'(영국의 유럽연합 탈퇴) 공포는 27일 잦아드는 모습이다.

정부와 한국은행 등 금융당국은 이날 주식시장과 외환시장의 불안이 일단 진정됐다고 안도하면서도 브렉시트로 인한 불확실성에 경계심을 늦추지 않고 있다.

이날 코스피는 전 거래일보다 1.61포인트(0.08%) 오른 1,926.85로 장을 마쳤다. 

브렉시트가 영국의 국민투표로 결정된 지난 24일 61.47포인트(3.09%) 내렸지만, 다음 거래일에 곧바로 반등에 성공한 것이다.

지난 주말 미국, 일본, 독일 등 30개국 중앙은행들이 국제결제은행(BIS) 세계 경제회의에서 시장 안정을 위해 협조하기로 합의하는 등 각국이 정책 공조 의지를 드러내면서 안도감이 퍼졌기 때문으로 풀이된다.

서울 외환시장에서 원/달러 환율 종가는 달러당 1,182.3원으로 전 거래일 종가보다 2.4원 올랐다.

장중 원/달러 환율은 높은 변동성을 보였지만 지난 24일 29.7원 오른 급등세는 일단 꺾인 것으로 보인다.

이주열 한국은행 총재는 이날 긴급간부회의에서 '우리나라와 아시아 주요국의 오늘 금융시장 상황을 보면 다행히 가격 변수의 변동성이 지난 주말에 비해 많이 축소되는 등 다소 완화되는 모습을 보이고 있다'고 긍정적으로 평가했다.

그러면서 '경제 주체들이 단기적인 상황 변화에 너무 민감하게 반응할 필요는 없다'며 차분한 대응을 당부했다.

정부도 비슷한 분위기다.

기획재정부 관계자는 '외환시장과 증시 모두 크게 문제가 되지 않은 것 같다'며 '증시는 초반에 하락했다가 반등했고 원/달러 환율은 변동성을 보였지만 걱정하는 수준으로 많이 오르지 않았다'고 말했다.

다른 기획재정부 관계자는 '오는 28∼29일 유럽연합(EU) 정상회의를 앞두고 금융시장이 관망세를 보인 것 같다'고 분석했다.

금융위원회 관계자도 '코스피가 상승한 것을 보면 시장은 브렉시트가 심각하게 큰 불안요인이 아니라고 인식한 것으로 보인다'며 '지난 24일에는 예상치 못한 결과가 나오면서 시장이 과도하게 반응했던 측면이 있었다'고 말했다.

시장에서는 금주 초반이 브렉시트로 인한 충격의 완화 여부를 가늠하는 고비가 될 것이라는 예상이 많다.

정부와 한은은 브렉시트가 전 세계에 정치·경제적으로 장기간 부정적 영향을 가져올 수 있는 변수이고 불확실성이 여전히 높은 만큼 적극적인 대응에 나설 계획이다.

이주열 총재는 긴급간부회의에서 '브렉시트의 파급 영향이 매우 불확실하고 장기간 지속할 가능성이 있다'며 직원들에게 경계심을 계속 가져 달라고 당부했다.

한은은 금융시장 안정을 위해 이번 주 통화안정증권 발행, 통화안정계정 예치, 환매조건부채권(RP) 등의 공개시장운영으로 3조원 이상의 단기 유동성을 시중에 확대 공급하기로 했다.

정부는 금융시장에 대한 24시간 모니터링 체제를 유지하는 한편, 필요하면 '컨틴전시 플랜'(비상계획)에 따라 신속하게 대응한다는 방침이다.

임종룡 금융위원장은 '불안 심리가 일정 수위를 넘어서면 단계적인 시장안정조치를 시행할 것'이라고 강조했다. (연합뉴스)
Emailnamhw@ktimes.com Article ListMore articles by this reporter
 
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