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Sat, January 28, 2023 | 21:38
Economy
'THAAD won't affect exports to China'
중국, 경제보복 카드 꺼낼까…증권가 '사드' 설왕설래
Posted : 2016-02-22 17:11
Updated : 2016-02-22 21:26
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By Yoon Ja-young

The proposed U.S. deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system in South Korea is not likely to affect the country's exports to China, Minister of Trade, Industry and Energy Joo Hyung-hwan said Monday.

"The economy and political concerns are likely to be separate issues. There is no sign of THAAD affecting exports," said Joo during a meeting with reporters. He was talking about the growing concern that the deployment of the system on South Korean soil may prompt the Chinese government to take economic retaliation against Seoul.

He noted that exports have slowed since 2012, posting an 18.5 percent fall in January compared with a year ago, the biggest plunge since 2009 August.

Korea saw all of its 13 major export items decrease in volume, including semiconductors, steel and ships, for the first time in history. There is seemingly no immediate rebound as exports have fallen 17.3 percent so far this month.

"This is a global phenomenon caused by the slowdown in China and emerging countries, declining oil prices and oversupply," he said. As global oil prices fell below $30 per barrel, Korea's export of oil products and petrochemical products is decreasing. The Chinese slowdown is hitting emerging markets that rely on the export of resources to China.

However, he added there are internal problems such as a weakening competitive edge of major industries as well as a failure to quickly find alternative industries.

"After the 2000s, exports to China increased notably. Korea should have maintained its market share in the United States, EU and Japan, but it seems to have slowed in those countries as Korea has concentrated on the Chinese market."

He pointed out that China is narrowing the technology gap with Korea as well as shifting its growth strategy to consuming and services from exports and investment. "Korea should have developed high-end service and consumer industries to cope with this."

Joo said that the government will focus on mid-tier companies. "Exports by conglomerates decreased 11 percent and small companies saw a 6 percent drop, but mid-tier companies expanded exports by 3.2 percent as they have a competitive edge. They are component and material firms and consumer goods companies. We plan to focus on them," he said, adding that it will expand its support of new products for export such as cosmetics, infant goods and foods.

Experts maintain that Korea should nurture the consumer goods industry. According to a report by KPMG, consumer goods amounted to 54.5 percent of Korea's exports in 1988, but the ratio fell to 15.6 percent last year. The report thus urges that Korea should pick high growth consumer goods in each sector, developing tailored products for each export destination and engage in marketing activities.

The minister said that the government will focus on deregulation and providing platforms for diverse industries. "Electric car companies, telecommunication firms and insurance businesses, for instance, may meet to discuss new business models. The government will help them work together."


중국, 경제보복 카드 꺼낼까…증권가 '사드' 설왕설래

고고도미사일방어체계(사드)를 둘러싼 설왕설래가 증권가에서 난무하고 있다.

향후 사드를 둘러싼 갈등이 심화될 경우 중국의 보복이 있을지, 그에 따른 영향이 어떨지가 핵심 주제다.

21일 증권업계에 따르면 아직 사드 배치 논의에 따른 직접적인 영향은 주식시장에서 크게 불거지지는 않은 상황이다.

다만, 화장품주 등 일부 중국 관련 소비주가 불안 심리의 영향을 받기는 했다.

문제는 실제로 사드가 배치되고 한중 양국간 긴장이 더 고조되는 상황이다. 이 경우 중국이 경제 보복에 나설 가능성을 배제할 수 없다는 게 증권가의 우려 사항이다.

증권사 연구원들은 사드를 둘러싼 불확실성을 이미 리스크 요인로 간주하고 있다.

한 증권사 연구원은 '펀드매니저들도 궁금해하는 사안이어서 내부적으로는 들여다본다'며 '다만, 정치적인 사안으로 향후 한중 양국의 긴장이 어떻게 전개될지 단정하기 어렵고 조심스러운 부분도 있어서 보고서는 내지 않고 있다'고 말했다.

그러나 지난 16일 '사드 갈등이 금융시장에 미칠 파장'이라는 보고서를 낸 하이투자증권의 박상현 상무는 '당장은 아니겠지만 비경제적 혹은 비관세 장벽을 활용한 제재를 가할 가능성을 배제할 수는 없다'고 진단했다.

이와 관련해 그가 요즘 가장 눈여겨 보는 금융시장 지표는 환율이다.

원화 가치가 일본 엔화나 다른 아시아권 주변국 통화에 비해 도드라진 움직임을 보인다는 게 그의 설명이다.

실제 지난 19일 서울 외환시장에서 원/달러 환율은 달러당 1,234.4원으로 마감했는데, 이는 이달 7일 국방부가 주한미군 사드 배치를 공식 협의하기로 했다고 발표하기 전인 5일의 1,197.4원보다 3.1%나 오른 수준이다.

서울외국환중개가 외환시장의 거래량 등을 가중평균해 매일 오전 고시하는 기준환율(매매기준율)도 5일에는 1,202.7원이었으나 19일에는 1,225.7원으로 1.9% 상승했다. 기준환율은 은행이 환전 고객과 거래할 때 기준이 되는 환율이다.

그러나 같은 기간 엔/달러 환율(이하 재정 매매기준율)은 3.0% 떨어졌다.

아시아권 주변국인 인도네시아 루피아화의 미 달러화에 대한 환율도 1.5% 하락했고 태국 바트(-0.1%), 홍콩 달러화(-0.1%) 등도 떨어졌다.

대만 달러(0.7%), 싱가포르 달러(0.3%), 말레이시아 링기트(0.4%), 필리핀 페소(0.2%), 베트남 동(0.3%) 등은 미 달러화에 대한 환율이 올랐지만 원화에 비하면 상승폭은 미미했다.

대신증권 이경민 연구원도 '아직 주식시장에는 큰 여파가 없지만 환율에는 영향이 있는 것 같다'고 평가했다.

NH투자증권의 강현철 투자전략부 이사는 '사드가 배치될 때를 전후로 모종의 제재가 있지 않을까 우려된다'며 '만일 그런 일이 벌어진다면 이른바 중국 소비 관련주인 여행·레저, 음식료 등이 영향을 받을 것'이라고 말했다.

이런 걱정은 중국이 과거 외교문제를 경제 보복으로 대응한 사례가 있기 때문에 더 크게 다가온다.

중국은 2012년 센카쿠(중국명 댜오위다오) 분쟁 상대국인 일본에 희소자원인 희토류 수출을 중단한 바 있고 2010년에는 반체제 인사 류샤오보에게 노벨평화상을 준 노르웨이를 상대로 연어 수입을 중단했다.

2000년에는 이른바 '마늘 분쟁'으로 한국에 대해 휴대전화와 폴리에틸렌 수입을 전면 중단하기도 했다.

그러나 비관세 무역장벽 등 무역보복 가능성은 낮을 것이라는 의견도 나온다.

이베스트투자증권의 정하늘 연구원은 '한반도 내 사드 배치와 중국의 비관세 무역장벽' 보고서에서 '중국이 사드 배치를 자국의 '핵심적 이익'과 결부시킬지에 따라 결정될 것'이라며 '보복 가능성은 낮다'고 예상했다.

'한반도 내 사드 배치가 중국의 영토 주권에 직접적으로 저촉하는 문제가 아니다'라는 판단에서다.

현대증권 한정숙 연구원은 '이번주 주요 20개국(G20) 재무장관회의에서 미국과 중국간 갈등이 완화될 것'이라고 예상하면서 '다만, 그때까지는 중국 관련주들의 단기적인 마찰음을 주시할 필요가 있다'고 말했다. (연합뉴스)
Emailyjy@ktimes.com Article ListMore articles by this reporter
 
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