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'Nearly half of Koreans will be elderly in 2070'
By Yi Whan-woo
South Korea's population will shrink to 38 million in 2070, down from roughly 52 million this year, according to Statistics Korea, Monday.
The demographic trend in Asia's fourth-largest economy is in stark contrast to the world population that will increase to 10.3 billion from 7.97 billion during the cited period. The global population estimate is based on the "World Population Prospects: The 2022 Revision" published by the United Nations.
The stats agency forecast that the decline in population will be unavoidable for the entire Korean Peninsula, noting the number of people in North Korea will peak in 2023 and fall afterward.
The South Korean population already has been on a downward trajectory since 2021 when it came down to roughly 52 million ― the first since after the government began to compile relevant data in 1949.
Accordingly, the combined population of the two Koreas will drop to 61 million in 2070 from 78 million in 2022.
The two countries altogether will account for 0.6 percent of the world population in 2070, down from 1 percent in 2022.
For South Korea, its population decline is largely attributed to its chronically lowest fertility rate ― 0.81 births per woman ― compared to the global average of 2.32 as of 2021.
The figure for Korea is the world's second-lowest after Hong Kong's 0.75.
Between 1970 and 2021, the average fertility rate for the world declined 51.9 percent, while Korea saw an 82.2 percent decline.
Under the circumstances, South Korea's population is aging rapidly and it is projected to become the world's most aged country by 2070, according to Statistics Korea.
It said the share of people aged 65 or older will likely reach 17.5 percent of the total population this year and rise to 46.4 percent in 2070.
The global share of those aged 65 or older will rise from 9.8 percent to 20.1 percent during the same period.
By region, the share of the age group will increase from 9.6 percent to 24.4 percent in Asia, 19.6 percent to 30.8 percent in Europe and 3.5 percent to 8.3 percent in Africa.
Concerning productivity, the proportion of the working-age population, or people aged 15 to 64, peaked at 73.4 percent in 2012 in South Korea.
It will decline further to 71 percent in 2022 and then to 46.1 percent in 2070.
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