Is K-pop's popularity waning after reaching its peak?

K-pop juggernaut BTS / Courtesy of HYBE

BTS' temporary absence fuels worries of K-pop's decline

By Dong Sun-hwa

"I am afraid that one day, people will not listen to K-pop anymore," Park Ji-won, CEO of K-pop powerhouse HYBE, said during an interview with Bloomberg News last week.

He added that some people are already concerned about the possible downfall of K-pop, which achieved exponential growth during the COVID-19 pandemic.

HYBE CEO Park Ji-won / Courtesy of HYBE

As Park said, K-pop certainly has boosted its global presence over the past couple of years. According to the Korea Customs Service, the total amount of K-pop album exports stood at $231.4 million ($305.3 billion won) in 2022 ― the highest figure ever. It has more than tripled since 2019, before the pandemic, when the total amount of exports was $74.6 million. Numerous people are known to have fallen under K-pop's spell during the global health crisis, as they came across a tsunami of Korean entertainment content on social media platforms like Twitter and YouTube while staying at home due to social distancing.

But why do some people feel that its popularity is waning? Experts say the temporary absence of phenomenal boy group BTS is one of the biggest reasons.

BTS is a game changer in the K-pop universe that has accomplished many firsts. It is the first K-pop act to reign atop the Billboard main singles chart and earn a Grammy nomination, just to mention a few. Lately, however, its members either started or revealed their plans to begin their mandatory military service, so they will be unable to perform as a septet for the next couple of years.

"K-pop is still enjoying its heyday right now, as evidenced by massive album sales and YouTube views," music critic Kim Do-heon told The Korea Times. "But the K-pop industry should fully prepare for the future to avoid being dethroned by other genres. If it continues to experiment and broaden its horizons further to different fields like metaverse, it will be able to gain more traction as time goes by."

Many people compare K-pop to J-pop, but they have essential differences, Kim explains. J-pop enjoyed its peak in the 1990s thanks to the emergence of prominent stars like X-Japan. But today, its global clout is not as strong as it used to be.

"J-pop relied heavily on Japanese fans, but K-pop has amassed fans across the globe by utilizing social media platforms," Kim said. "The two were born different and have walked different paths to date."

As he pointed out, K-pop has dominated some of the world's most widely used social media platforms. For instance, it generated a whopping 7.8 billion tweets in 2021 on Twitter. A host of K-pop music videos by groups like BTS and BLACKPINK have also garnered more than 100 million views on YouTube.

However, K-pop is not yet mainstream in the U.S. ― the largest recorded music market in the world ― according to Lee Hye-jin, a clinical assistant professor of communication at the University of Southern California. It does have an enormous and influential fandom to ramp up album sales, but still lacks general popularity, she says.

"A comparatively small number of streams is a testament to K-pop's lack of general popularity," Lee said. "When I teach a course on pop culture or media, less than 20 percent of them show interest in K-pop."

Echoing this sentiment, Choi Joo-yeon, a K-pop fan in her 20s, told The Korea Times that the majority of fourth-generation K-pop acts ― especially boy bands ― are not very well known to the general public even in Korea. The term "fourth-generation" is often used to refer to acts that burst onto the music scene in 2018 or later.

"It appears to me that they are living in their own world occupied only by their fans," Choi said.

Speaking of K-pop's future in the U.S., Lee at USC stressed that BTS and BLACKPINK ― the two biggest K-pop acts at the moment ― are the "determining factors."

"Whether all BTS members will be able to reunite in 2025 (as HYBE said), and whether all four members of K-pop girl group BLACKPINK will renew their contracts with their record label YG Entertainment to continue their group activity are the two major issues that can drop hints about the near future of K-pop in the U.S.," she said. "All eyes of Koreans are currently fixed on the possible collaboration of HYBE and SM. But this team-up is less likely to have an overarching impact on the popularity of K-pop in the U.S. market right now, although it may have an influence in the long run."

SM Entertainment founder Lee Soo-man, left, and HYBE Chairman Bang Si-hyuk / Courtesy of SM Entertainment, HYBE

HYBE recently became the largest shareholder of its rival SM after purchasing a 14.8 percent stake in the company from its founder Lee Soo-man. The 70-year-old founder sold his stake after ending his contract with SM as a chief producer. HYBE is currently engaged in a tug-of-war with tech behemoth Kakao ― the second-largest shareholder ― over management control of SM.

"What matters more than the HYBE-Kakao battle is the cultural landscape of the U.S. market in the future," Lee added. "How the musical tastes of U.S. listeners will shift and how different social media platforms will function may decide the future of K-pop. These days, it is even challenging for U.S. singers to win the hearts of the general public, so for K-pop stars, the task is going to be even more daunting."

Missions for K-pop

Lee believes K-pop should continue to set its sights on the Southeast Asian market.

"Once a K-pop group builds a strong fandom in Southeast Asia and proves its international popularity with the high views on YouTube or other quantitative accomplishments, it may be able to pique the interests of people in the U.S. as well," she said.

It is also crucial for the K-pop industry to understand international fans, who have different demands and interests.

"In a culturally diverse country like the U.S., the young generation usually expects celebrities to speak for themselves and weigh in on various social issues ranging from human rights to environmental problems," Lee noted. "They are not like Korean fans, who just want their singers to stay away from trouble and pay attention to their music. I think these differences should be meticulously considered for K-pop to further raise its profile on the international stage."

K-pop girl group BLACKPINK / Courtesy of YG Entertainment

Kim, the music critic, added that K-pop management companies have to take better care of their idol trainees and develop a more advanced system to incubate them.

"They need a system that can help idol trainees become talented and independent artists," Kim said. "Many people still point out that K-pop agencies have too much control over their singers (in terms of music and their personal lives)."

K-pop labels, indeed, have long been noted for "babysitting" their singers regardless of their age. The majority of them produce music and craft choreography for their stars, while imposing a dating ban or other forms of restrictions that are rarely witnessed in the entertainment industries of other countries. These practices have prompted some critics to call them "puppets."

"K-pop companies may have to pour a lot of effort into bringing a meaningful change and overcome prejudice," Kim said.

Kim Han-sol, a K-pop fan in her 20s, added, "As a longtime K-pop fan, I have frequently felt that the K-pop universe is more about companies than artists and fans. I think the focus should be shifted in the right direction, so that our singers can shine more on stage."