What is Copernicus forecasting for global temperatures in 2026?

Copernicus said there is a 20 percent chance that 2026 will tie or exceed 2024 as the warmest year on record. It also said temperatures are virtually certain to exceed 1.5C above pre-industrial levels this year.

How did El Niño contribute to the 2026 global heat outlook?

Copernicus said an exceptionally strong El Niño was adding further heat to a climate already warmed by human activities. Samantha Burgess said the pattern accompanied record global and surface ocean temperatures in October.

What temperature record did the world set in October 2026?

October was the warmest October on record, with average global surface air temperatures 1.75C above the 1850–1900 baseline. Copernicus also reported record global and surface ocean temperatures for the month.

2026 'most likely' to be second-hottest year on record: EU monitor

Listen

Summary

The world is on track for 2026 to be the second-hottest year on record, as an exceptionally strong El Niño adds heat to human-driven global warming, the EU’s climate monitor said Friday. Copernicus said there is a 20 percent chance the year will tie or exceed 2024’s record and that global temperatures are virtually certain to exceed 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. The 2023–2026 average is also expected to top 1.5C. Nations are preparing to meet Monday for the two-week COP31 climate summit in Turkey.

Key Facts

Copernicus said the four-year average from 2023 to 2026 is expected to exceed 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, the preferred limit set in the Paris Agreement.
The world experienced its warmest October on record, with average global surface air temperatures 1.75C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline.
Samantha Burgess, strategic lead for climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, said October brought record global and surface ocean temperatures.
The bulletin came after a year marked by deadly floods in Nepal, heatwaves in Europe and major wildfires in Indonesia.

By AFP

Published Nov 6, 2026 6:36 pm KST

A person sits on the banks of the Seine River amid a severe heat wave in Paris, May 26. Reuters-Yonhap

PARIS — The world is on track for 2026 to be the second-hottest year on record as an exceptionally strong El Nino weather pattern turbocharges human-driven global warming, the EU's climate monitor said Friday.

This year still has a "20 percent chance of tying or exceeding" 2024 as the warmest ever seen, the Copernicus Climate Change Service said in a monthly bulletin.

Global temperatures are now "virtually certain" to exceed 1.5C above pre-industrial levels in 2026, Copernicus said.

The four-year average from 2023 to 2026 is also expected to top 1.5C, the preferred limit set in the Paris Agreement to avert the worst impacts of climate change.

The world experienced its warmest October on record, with average global surface air temperatures 1.75C above pre-industrial times, an era defined as 1850-1900, Copernicus added.

"October has continued the pattern of remarkable global warmth, with record global and surface ocean temperatures," said Samantha Burgess, strategic lead for climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which operates Copernicus.

"An exceptionally strong El Nino is adding further heat to a climate already warmed by human activities," she said.

The latest bulletin comes as nations prepare to meet on Monday for the U.N.'s two-week COP31 climate summit in Turkey after a year marked by deadly floods in Nepal, searing heatwaves in Europe and major wildfires in Indonesia.

Explore More