How is El Niño expected to affect US winter weather?

El Niño is expected to shift weather patterns toward greater moisture and higher temperatures. The wetter conditions could help reduce persistent drought in the western United States, while warmer northern conditions could suppress seasonal snowfall.

Could the United States still experience snowstorms or a polar vortex this winter?

Yes. Forecasters expect polar-vortex outbreaks to occur less often than in most winters, but they said the risk will not disappear. A milder overall season can still include snowstorms and significant cold spells.

US winter likely to be wetter and warmer, forecasters say. If you want more snow, look south

Q: Which parts of the United States are expected to get more or less snow this winter?

Below-normal snowfall is expected across the Northeast, Great Lakes, Upper Midwest and Northern Rockies. The Southern Rockies and parts of the Southeast and Southwest may receive more snow than usual, while Salt Lake City is forecast to have above-normal snowfall among major metro areas.

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Summary

Winter in the United States is expected to be wetter and warmer because of El Niño, with generally less snow across northern regions. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said the pattern could help reduce persistent drought in the West. Southern areas, including the Southern Rockies and parts of the Southeast and Southwest, may receive above-normal snowfall, while polar-vortex outbreaks are expected to be less frequent but remain possible.

Key Facts

The Northeast, Great Lakes, Upper Midwest and Northern Rockies are forecast to receive below-normal snowfall.
AccuWeather forecasts Chicago, Boston, New York and Philadelphia will receive about half or less of their normal winter snow.
Salt Lake City is the only major metropolitan area where AccuWeather forecasts above-normal winter snowfall.
National Weather Service meteorologists said El Niño can produce a milder-than-average northern winter without eliminating the possibility of snowstorms.
NOAA does not issue seasonal snowfall predictions, although its meteorologists provide broader winter temperature and precipitation outlooks.

By AP

Published Oct 16, 2026 1:45 am KST

A person walks near the snow-covered sand at Lake Michigan in Chicago, Jan. 28. AP-Yonhap

WASHINGTON — Winter in the United States looks like it will generally be wetter and warmer, but not necessarily snowier, according to the federal government's official seasonal outlook and other meteorologists' forecasts. You can thank or blame El Niño.

El Niño is likely to shift weather patterns to bring more moisture but with it higher temperatures. That should help erase persistent western drought, but it won't likely make northern snow-lovers happy, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Thursday.

Even though the weather service doesn't make seasonal snowfall predictions, their meteorologists said much of the northern parts of the country — including the Northeast, Great Lakes, Upper Midwest and Northern Rockies — should expect below normal snow, while the Southern Rockies, parts of the southeast and Southwest may get more than they usually do.

The northern snow shrinkage is also predicted by private meteorology firms, with Salt Lake City the only big metro area where AccuWeather is forecasting above normal winter snow amounts. Chicago, Boston, New York and Philadelphia are forecast to get about half or less of their normal winter snow, the firm said.

And the dreaded polar vortex with its icy blast of Arctic air escaping into the United States? That shouldn't happen as much as most winters, but that doesn't mean it won't happen at all, said National Weather Service meteorologist and branch chief Jon Gottschalck.

“El Niño can favor a more mild than average winter in the northern United States, but listen, even in the winter months, it doesn’t mean you’re not gonna have snow. It doesn’t mean you might not have a snowstorm. So it doesn’t erase the risk,” National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said in a media briefing presenting the three-month winter outlook.

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