What is the IMF expecting for global growth in 2026, and why does it still see risks as high?

The IMF said world growth remains on track for around 3 percent in 2026. It warned that elevated oil and gas prices, rising debt pressures, and stalled disinflation keep uncertainty high.

How is the IMF describing the forces shaping the world economy right now?

Julie Kozack said the global economy is being pulled in opposite directions by a negative energy supply shock and a positive demand shock from the AI-led technology cycle. She also said countries have responded to the energy shock by using reserves, shifting to new energy sources, or curbing demand.

What concerns did the IMF raise about debt, developing countries, and U.S. sanctions on Iran?

The IMF said global public debt is already near 100 percent of GDP and is set to rise further. It also said liquidity problems are building in developing countries, including in Africa, and that it will look closely at the effect of new U.S. sanctions against Iran.

IMF sees 3% global growth in 2026, warns of high risks

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Summary

The IMF said in Washington that the global economy has remained resilient despite the Middle East war and still expects world growth of about 3 percent in 2026. Julie Kozack said risks remain high because oil and gas prices are elevated, debt pressures are rising, and disinflation has stalled. She added that the economy is being pulled by both an energy supply shock and an AI-led technology boom. The IMF also said it will watch the effects of new U.S. sanctions on Iran.

Key Facts

The IMF said global output was still expected to expand by about 3 percent in 2026.
The IMF said global public debt is already nearly 100 percent of gross domestic product, the highest level since World War Two.
Julie Kozack said many countries need to restock oil and gas reserves as winter approaches in the Northern Hemisphere.
The IMF said liquidity problems are building in developing countries, including in Africa, partly because bilateral assistance has been reduced.
The IMF said it would closely examine the impact of new U.S. sanctions against Iran, including secondary sanctions on firms in third countries.

By Reuters

Published Sep 11, 2026 1:39 am KST

The skyline of Los Angeles, California, on Aug. 24. Reuters-Yonhap

WASHINGTON — The IMF said on Thursday the global economy had weathered the energy shock caused by the war in the Middle East better than feared and global economic output was still expected to expand by about 3 percent in 2026, but it cautioned that risks remained high.

Julie Kozack, spokesperson for the International Monetary Fund, said oil and gas prices remained elevated and the energy shock from the war was not over. Global debt pressures were also mounting and the disinflation process over the 2022 cost of living crisis had stalled.

Global inflationary expectations have risen but remain well-anchored over the longer run, Kozack told a regular IMF briefing.

"So far, despite six months of war in the Middle East, the global economy has been resilient," Kozack said, adding that the use of oil and gas reserves had allowed some countries to cope with energy shocks caused by the war, while others had shifted to new energy sources or acted to curb demand.

"We remain on track for world growth of around 3 percent but uncertainty, as we've been saying for quite some time, continues to remain high," she said.

The IMF in July inched its 2026 global growth forecast lower again to a sluggish 3.0 percent, compared to an average of 3.5 percent seen in 2024 and 2025.

Pulled in opposite directions

Kozack said the global economy was being pulled in opposite directions by the negative energy supply shock that was driving prices of energy, fertilizers, food and other commodities sharply higher, while the AI-led technology cycle was providing a positive demand shock.

Risks are high, with many countries needing to restock their oil and gas reserves, and energy demands set to rise as winter approaches in the Northern Hemisphere.

Pressures are also mounting on global public debt, which is already nearly at 100 percent of gross domestic product — the highest level since World War Two — and is set to rise further, Kozack said. Many advanced economies have particularly high public debt to GDP ratios.

Liquidity problems are also building in developing countries, including in Africa, partly due to a reduction in bilateral assistance, Kozack said.

The IMF is urging central bankers to stick to their price stability mandates, while encouraging fiscal policymakers to develop medium-term consolidation plans, she said.

Kozack said the IMF would look closely at the impact of new U.S. sanctions against Iran, including secondary sanctions aimed at firms in third countries that support Tehran.

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