Expert says Trump may not have problem acknowledging NK nuke possession

WASHINGTON — A prominent expert said Thursday that U.S. President Donald Trump may not have a problem with acknowledging North Korea's possession of nuclear weapons as he thinks it is "not his fault," while noting that Pyongyang might wait for the November midterm election outcome before a potential summit with Trump.

Victor Cha, president of the Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), made the remarks during a podcast, as Trump is seeking to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong-un later this year amid questions over whether he would adhere to the long-elusive goal of the North's denuclearization.

"When it comes to Trump and North Korea as a nuclear weapons state, I actually don't think President Trump has a problem with acknowledging North Korea's possession of nuclear weapons, or that they are, in fact, a nuclear weapons power," he said during the CSIS podcast.

"I don't think he has a problem with that because ... in his mind, that is not his fault. That is the failure of 35 years of U.S. policy, everybody before him, and that is why he is in this situation," he added.

Last month, Trump said that Pyongyang has 57 "very powerful" nuclear weapons, saying that if he had been president during the North's pursuit of nuclear weapons, he would not have allowed it, while reiterating that he gets along with Kim "very well."

In response to concerns about whether the Trump administration would stick to the denuclearization goal, a White House official told Yonhap News Agency earlier this week that U.S. policy on North Korea has not changed. The official, however, stopped short of reaffirming the denuclearization goal.

Cha expected that North Korea might wait until the U.S. midterm elections, after which it might think it could have more leverage in potential talks with the United States.

"I think that if the North Koreans are at all interested in meeting Trump again, they will wait till later in the year. In particular, from their perspective, they will believe they have more leverage after the president is more likely weakened by the midterm elections in November," he said.

During the podcast, retired Gen. Vincent Brooks, who led U.S. Forces Korea from 2016-2018, said that the earliest window for potential summitry between Trump and Kim might be between November and the Group of 20 summit set to take place in Florida in December.

Brooks noted that North Korea can afford to wait for a meeting with the U.S. given that it may want to assess "where the wind is blowing" in the face of various events, such as Chinese President Xi Jinping's planned visit to Washington this month, a major Central Committee session of the Chinese Communist Party next month and then the U.S. midterm elections the following month.

"I think the consequences are: the sooner it happens, the more performative it will be," he said.

"The later it is, the more likely there can be some substance," he added.

Brooks assumed that both Washington and Pyongyang would have a desire to have an "early touch point" during the fall and then have opportunities for a substantive follow-up discussion thereafter.

Commenting on the G20 summit later this year, Cha raised the possibility of Trump inviting Kim to the G20 gathering.

"Can you imagine the idea that Trump would invite North Korea to the G20? Because the G20 itself is not something that president Trump cares much about, but this would be something that would gather all the attention, global attention of the U.S. hosting the G20," he said.

While questions linger over whether Kim would have an interest in reengaging with Trump amid deepening cooperation with Russia and improved ties with China, Cha outlined a range of reasons why Pyongyang might want a meeting with Washington.

"I don't think North Korea is a status-quo power. They are always looking to improve their position, and meeting with the U.S. could improve their position vis-a-vis both China and Russia by showing they have an active hedge," he said.

"The second thing is that ... I don't think they worry every day that the U.S. is going to attack them. But they have seen what the U.S. has done in Iran and Venezuela and potentially in Cuba, and so there is something on their side to be said for having a touch point with the president to minimize the chances of that."

Cha also argued that North Korea may have a desire to talk with Trump about South Korea's push to have nuclear-powered submarines and other stronger military capabilities.

He also anticipated that if a Trump-Kim summit is held, it could be a "bigger meeting" that would reaffirm the agreement from their first meeting in Singapore in June 2018, which included establishing new relations between the two countries and building a "stable and enduring peace" on the Korean Peninsula.

Trump held three in-person summits with Kim during his first term: the first in Singapore in June 2018, the second in Hanoi in February 2019 and the third at the inter-Korean border village of Panmunjom.