As Marco Rubio visits New Delhi, what could it mean for US-India ties?

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, left, and India's External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar prepare to sign an MOU at Hyderabad House in New Delhi, India, May 26. AP-Yonhap

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s visit to India this week will give Washington an opportunity to “get the optics right” regarding ties between the two sides, amid friction over unresolved trade issues and broader international cooperation.

Rubio stressed cooperation on trade, energy, defence and maritime security in meetings with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar on Sunday as he arrived in New Delhi.

Jaishankar said that the two countries have a comprehensive global strategic partnership “that impacts and influences other regions.”

On Tuesday, Rubio also held talks with top diplomats of India, Australia and Japan as part of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, which came at a time when the group’s effectiveness appeared at odds with Washington’s assertive trade positions with its allies.

“This visit, more than anything else, is about getting the optics of India-U.S. relations right, because I think there is a lot of concern that the Trump administration is either not invested enough in India or that the way it is going about engaging or working with India. It has not done it any great help,” said Harsh Pant, an international relations professor at King’s College London.

Trade tensions between Washington and Delhi have lingered despite the two sides reaching an in-principle agreement over reducing steep U.S. “reciprocal” tariffs on India to 18 percent from a peak of 50 percent last year, including penalties imposed on the nation for buying Russian oil.

Since then, the Trump administration has granted a waiver to India to buy Russian oil as Iran effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz after coming under attack from U.S. and Israel in February, squeezing energy supplies transiting via the vital waterway.

Oil prices have fallen as hopes grew that the U.S. and Iran would be able to reach a peace settlement after stumbling in previous rounds amid a fragile ceasefire.

Ahead of his trip, Rubio told reporters that the U.S. wanted to be a much bigger part of India’s energy portfolio.

India, the world’s second-largest importer of oil, has heavily expanded and diversified its crude oil and gas import sources over the last year to around 40 countries to mitigate global price shocks and geopolitical conflicts, according to the government.

In a social media post on Saturday, the diplomat said he discussed U.S.-India partnership in energy and securing critical supply chains, among other things, with Modi.

Rubio added that Delhi committed to buying $500 billion in American goods over the next five years focusing on energy, technology and agriculture.

In return, India was likely to press Rubio on finalising the trade deal, Pant said.

Vivek Mishra, deputy director of strategic studies at the Observer Research Foundation think tank, said that the energy issue is probably going to be the biggest component of the talks between Rubio and Indian officials.

“This crisis has been turned into an opportunity and I think the U.S. is a master at creating such opportunities. India has on the other hand said that it is open to buying from any country which gives predictable, cheap and reliable supply of energy,” he said.

However, he said “I don’t think that the U.S. can make energy supplies predictable enough to meet all of India’s needs”.

Mishra said Rubio also struck a “positive tone” when questioned about Washington’s position with regard to India’s arch-rival Pakistan, which is mediating peace between Iran and the U.S.

He has highlighted Pakistan’s strategic utility strictly through “tactical” lenses and India did not raise any objections to Islamabad’s diplomatic role in the conflict, Mishra said.

Analysts say Delhi may ask for an extension of U.S. waiver of sanctions on India’s purchases of Russian oil, although it is likely to continue buying some volumes irrespective of Washington’s stance.

Yet the Gulf remains an important source of oil and gas for Delhi, which is unlikely to seek U.S. naval escorts or military coordination through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Srikumar Menon, a former Indian ambassador to South Sudan and Angola.

“Instead, in keeping with its policy of multi-alignment and reducing regional chokepoints, India may rely more on pursuing diplomacy with Iran, Russian oil imports, and exploring alternative routes like the UAE and its [port of] Fujairah,” he said.

From left, Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong, India's Minister of External Affairs S. Jaishankar, Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio pose following a Quad ministerial meeting at Hyderabad House in New Delhi, India, May 26. AP-Yonhap

Underscoring commitment to Quad

Pant said the Quad ministers’ meeting with Rubio will focus on the future of the group after a lengthy delay to a highly anticipated leaders’ summit, though other analysts do not expect any significant outcomes from the talks.

“The U.S. should give a sense to the world about Quad’s importance because if that importance from the top leadership of the four countries is not maintained, then there is a danger that Quad’s impact on the rest of the world would look much, much more feeble,” he said.

For India, it would be critical to see an indication which underscores American commitment, he said. “So, I think that is something that India would want to see.”

Read the article at SCMP.