Why Bangladesh could raise Indian red flags by buying a China-Pakistan fighter jet

A JF-17 Thunder from the Pakistan
Air Force performs during a flight display at the 53rd International Paris Air Show held at Le Bourget Airport near Paris, France, June 17, 2019. The JF-17 Thunder was jointly developed by China and Pakistan. Xinhua-Yonhap

Bangladesh's potential purchase of a Sino-Pakistani fighter jet could raise tensions in India's sensitive northeast, as relations between Dhaka and New Delhi remain tense, analysts said.

According to Pakistani media reports, the country has transferred a fully operational simulator of a JF-17 Thunder Block III combat aircraft to Bangladesh.

Fighter jet simulators replicate the experience of flying an aircraft and are used to train pilots in combat tactics and systems management.

Jointly developed by the Pakistan Aeronautical Complex and Chengdu Aircraft Corporation, the fighter is one of the main combat aircraft operated by the Pakistan Air Force and has also been exported to Azerbaijan, Myanmar and Nigeria.

Pakistan's reported transfer of the simulator follows a meeting between the two countries' air force chiefs in Islamabad in January which included "detailed discussions" on potential procurement of the jet, according to the Pakistani military.

If confirmed, the purchase would boost Dhaka's air combat capabilities, replacing its ageing Russian-made MiG-29s and Chinese-made F-7s, also known as J-7s.

Jagannath Panda, head of the Stockholm Centre for South Asian and Indo-Pacific Affairs at the Institute for Security and Development Policy in Sweden, said that the simulator transfer was a signal of a "possible acquisition".

"For Bangladesh, the JF-17 Block III would offer a relatively affordable multi-role platform with beyond-visual-range missile potential, modern avionics and Chinese-Pakistani support infrastructure," Panda said.

"It would not make Bangladesh an air-power peer of India, but it could strengthen Dhaka's deterrence."

Liselotte Odgaard, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute in Washington, said the transfer of the simulator marked a "critical enabling step" towards a major capability upgrade, and signalled "serious intent to field modern fighters".

"Militarily, simulators are typically deployed only when acquisition is likely or imminent because they form part of pilot conversion pipelines and doctrine integration," Odgaard said.

"Strategically, Bangladesh appears to be preparing for a generational capability jump."

Despite the war that led to Bangladesh's secession from Pakistan in 1971, relations between the two countries have eased since protests forced Bangladeshi prime minister Sheikh Hasina out of office in 2024, after 15 years in power.

However, Bangladesh's relations with India have been strained since Delhi refused the new government's demand to extradite Hasina, who sought refuge in India and was given a death sentence in absentia.

India has reinforced its military presence near Bangladesh, particularly around the geopolitically sensitive Siliguri Corridor.

Also known as the "Chicken's Neck", the Siliguri Corridor is a narrow strip of land bordering Bangladesh and Nepal, which links India to its seven northeastern states.

In November, the Indian Army set up three new military garrisons to bolster surveillance and combat readiness around the Siliguri Corridor, following its deployment of the Russian S-400 air defense system and a squadron of French-made Rafale fighter jets near the area in April last year.

Odgaard said Delhi's "comfort margin" around the corridor would be reduced, and mutual threat perception would increase, but direct conflict between India and Bangladesh was unlikely as the JF-17 would "not overturn the military balance or enable decisive force projection into India".

"India already operates advanced fighters from multiple bases, and it is expanding its forward infrastructure and fighter-capable bases for rapid deployment. India has enjoyed clear air superiority over Bangladesh, but the JF-17 Block III would narrow that gap," Odgaard said.

"Therefore, India may increase air surveillance and readiness in the east, accelerate modernisation and deployments, and integrate the eastern theatre more tightly into two-front planning vis-a-vis China and Pakistan, with Bangladesh in a potential role. Improved Bangladesh-Pakistan defense ties add strategic suspicion in India."

Panda said purchases of JF-17s by Bangladesh would add a "military layer" to an "already politically sensitive relationship", with India likely reading it not only as Bangladesh's modernisation, but also as a "Pakistan-China-linked platform entering its eastern security environment".

He said that while Bangladesh's acquisition should not be "overread" as preparation for confrontation, even limited modernisation could prompt Indian counter-deployments, tighter surveillance and more rigorous threat assessments.

"In a hypothetical India-Bangladesh military crisis, the JF-17 would likely serve three roles: air defense, limited strike and coercive signalling. Its most important value would be to complicate Indian air planning rather than defeat the Indian Air Force," Panda said.

He added that the JF-17 would have "psychological and operational" relevance in the Siliguri Corridor, but any move by Bangladesh in the area would be "extraordinarily escalatory and would invite an overwhelming Indian military response".

"The India-Bangladesh relationship is likely to remain tense but not necessarily militarised ... The more realistic risk is a cycle of suspicion: defense deals with Pakistan or China, Indian force posture adjustments, nationalist rhetoric and border incidents. The danger is not planned war but miscalculation," he said.

However, Michael Kugelman, senior South Asia fellow at the Washington-based Atlantic Council, said the new government in Dhaka would likely take "cautious steps" to "patch up ties" with Delhi.

"The trajectory for India-Bangladesh relations is much more positive now than it was during the period of the interim government that preceded the recently elected Tarique Rahman administration."

"I think that there is a genuine desire to better balance Dhaka's relations with its key neighbours, and that will entail trying to better balance its relations with India, Pakistan and China, and that will entail patching up ties with India," he said.

Read the article at SCMP.