Why China will see India's latest defense deal with South Korea as 'inevitably sensitive'

Hanwha Aerospace's K9 self-propelled howitzer / Courtesy of Hanwha Aerospace

China would see India's attempt to expand defense industry cooperation with South Korea in artillery and anti-aircraft guns as "inevitably sensitive" given Beijing's border dispute with New Delhi in the Himalayas, according to analysts.

After meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday as part of his three-day visit to India, South Korean President Lee Jae Myung announced that Seoul and Delhi had agreed to upgrade their economic cooperation, focusing on vital sectors such as shipbuilding, defense and artificial intelligence.

Lee said South Korea fully backed India's "Atmanirbhar Bharat" or self-reliant India policy and hoped to "actively" support the production and operation of Indian defense equipment and discuss cooperation such as in technology development.

He cited the K9 Thunder, a South Korean howitzer, as an example of the two countries' defense cooperation.

Delhi operates about 100 of the K9 Vajra-T 155mm self-propelled howitzer units and plans to acquire 100 more.

The K9 Vajra-T is made in India and based on South Korea's K9 Thunder design. Its system was produced through a technology transfer from Hanwha Aerospace and optimized for the Indian Army's desert and high-altitude environments.

The Indian Army has deployed the howitzers in the country's northern Ladakh region, aiming to boost long-range firepower amid India's border tensions with China and Pakistan.

According to the Times of India newspaper, Periasamy Kumaran of Delhi's Ministry of External Affairs said on Monday during Lee's visit that India sought to expand defense industry cooperation with South Korea into a "third phase".

Moving beyond direct acquisition and progressive localization of the K9 howitzers, India would go "even further" with advanced manufacturing and technology transfer, Kumaran said.

Joint development and technology transfer as well as co-design of next-generation defense systems were "some other areas where we want to explore cooperation", he said.

Indian news outlets also reported that talks were under way on developing air-defense systems, including anti-aircraft guns and missile platforms, to tackle new aerial threats such as drones.

Nishant Rajeev, a senior analyst at the South Asia program at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, said the howitzers and anti-aircraft guns were "critical" to Indian defenses as its South Korean K9 artillery system boosted firepower along India's disputed borders.

Rajeev said the joint production of the K9 howitzer was likely a "model of cooperation" that the two countries could look to expand on.

"As demonstrated by the conflict last year with Pakistan, India recognizes the need to develop a layered air-defense system as well ... India faces a multitude of threats from drones, cruise missiles and fighter aircraft."

Noting that drones "featured prominently" in the Pakistani conflict, Rajeev said "it is not clear what specific systems the two countries are looking to co-develop or co-produce, but it is definitely an area India will have a keen interest in".

President Lee Jae Myung and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi shake hands prior to a meeting at Hyderabad House in New Delhi, India, April 20. EPA-Yonhap

Kang Jun-young, a professor of international relations at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, said Beijing was "highly likely" to view defense and supply-chain cooperation between South Korea and India "very critically".

This was because Seoul might be viewed as playing a "substantial role in the U.S.' containment of China", Kang added.

"In particular, as India is engaged in a border dispute with China, Beijing is inevitably sensitive to the fact that South Korea's weapons systems could lead to an increase in India's military power," he said.

"Since pursuing technology transfer and local production beyond simple exports has the potential to dramatically advance India's defense self-sufficiency capabilities, China is likely to regard this as a strategic move that threatens its geopolitical interests and security."

Jagannath Panda, head of the Stockholm Centre for South Asian and Indo-Pacific Affairs at the Institute for Security and Development Policy in Sweden, said India's defense cooperation with South Korea reflected a "broader transition" from simple arms imports to industrial partnerships.

"The success of the K9 Vajra-T demonstrated that South Korean systems can be adapted for Indian terrain and manufactured domestically," added Panda, who is also the principal investigator of the "Silk Cage" project covering China's influence operations in the Indian Ocean region.

"Expanding this model into air-defense guns and missile systems suggests New Delhi now values Seoul as a dependable technology partner."

India has been involved in border conflicts with its neighbours Pakistan and China in recent years, and has ramped up its autonomous military technology and strength to prepare for possible future clashes.

The howitzers are likely to play a pivotal role along the Line of Actual Control or in the contested Kashmir region, both situated in the Himalayas and the site of a number of military stand-offs in recent years.

Self-propelled howitzers are highly efficient in mountainous terrain because they can be fired at steep, high-angle trajectories, allowing shells to clear mountain ridges and descend into deep valleys.

They also serve as an all-weather, high-firepower alternative to air support, which is often hindered by weather and high altitude.

In 2020, Indian and Chinese troops engaged in hand-to-hand combat in Eastern Ladakh, near the Galwan Valley, resulting in the first casualties between the two sides in more than four decades.

And in May last year, New Delhi and Islamabad engaged in a border clash near the disputed Kashmir region. Both countries' air forces scrambled their fighter jets and reportedly shot down each other's aircraft.

Panda described artillery, air defense and mobile firepower as "highly relevant" to the China-India border dispute, considering that mountain warfare and border stand-offs required quick deployment, survivable systems and precision fires.

For this reason, he saw India-South Korea cooperation as "not merely commercial".

"It is tied to India's preparation for sustained continental and aerial competition with China while maintaining readiness against Pakistan," Panda said.

"The China factor is central. Following repeated border crises with China ... India needs faster modernization cycles. It cannot wait for slow procurement pipelines.

"South Korea's defense industry is known for speed, manufacturing scale and modern engineering - qualities India values in a deteriorating regional environment."

According to Ian Hall, an international relations professor at Griffith University in Australia, India is "certainly" looking to improve military capabilities in multiple areas following the 2020 conflict with China and last year's clash with Pakistan.

"South Korea would be a good partner, given the strength of its defense industry," Hall said.

"If India can achieve a mutually satisfactory deal with South Korea, that could have a big long-term impact on India's capacity to deter threats from the north and west."

Read the article at SCMP.