Will South Korea's 'Goldilocks' missile dent China's Middle East arms ambitions?

This file photo provided by Hanwha Systems shows Cheongung-II medium-range surface-to-air missile multi-function radar. Yonhap

South Korea's combat-proven, interoperable and geopolitically accessible surface-to-air missiles could hinder China's efforts to sell its own defence systems to the Middle East, analysts have suggested.

The U.S.-Israel war on Iran has been marked by tit-for-tat missile and drone attacks across the Persian Gulf states, driving a surge in demand for surface-to-air missiles to defend against incoming Iranian aerial threats.

According to a study by the Foreign Policy Research Institute, a Philadelphia-based think tank, more than 5,000 munitions were fired in the first 96 hours of the armed conflict, including about one-third of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) missiles operated by Gulf states.

As the war has continued, a shortage of surface-to-air missiles has pushed Washington to relocate to the Middle East parts of its air-defence systems deployed elsewhere in the world, such as its THAAD and Patriot systems in South Korea.

The South Korean-made medium-range surface-to-air missile Cheongung-II, known as M-SAM, was also involved in defending against Iranian attacks. Two of its batteries are operated by the United Arab Emirates (UAE), following the 2022 acquisition of 10 batteries under a US$3.5 billion deal.

Against Iranian drones and ballistic missiles, the Cheongung-II has reportedly achieved a 96.7 per cent intercept rate, hitting 29 of 30 targets.

Chun In-bum, a retired South Korean Army lieutenant general, said the recent combat debut of the Cheongung-II had been a "transformative moment" for the country's defence industry, as the missile's successful deployment established it as "combat-proven" for export to the Middle East.

The U.S. Patriot remained the "gold standard", Chun added, but its high price tag and multi-year delivery backlogs had created a "vacuum", and other countries' systems, such as those from Israel and China, carried "political sensitivity" in the region.

"For Middle Eastern nations, this performance provides the 'Goldilocks' solution: the sophistication of the American Patriot at a fraction of the cost and without the geopolitical baggage or performance inconsistencies," he said.

"The Cheongung-II fills this gap as a 'cost-effective Patriot', offering rapid delivery and a willingness for local technology transfer that Western contractors rarely match."

The Cheongung-II is developed by South Korean defence companies LIG Nex1 and Hanwha.

It is designed to destroy targets at altitudes of about 15-20km (9.3-12.4 miles), with an operating range of up to 40-50km. It is often compared to the Patriot missile, and at about US$1 million per interceptor, it sells for roughly a quarter of the price of its American counterpart.

Jang Won-joon, a professor in the department of advanced defence industry at Jeonbuk National University, said the combat-verified capabilities of the Cheongung-II meant that higher demand from the Middle East would be expected.

"The Cheongung-II can be seen as having acquired a new status, not merely as a Patriot-like system, but as an independent brand with actual operational experience," Jang added.

"It is highly likely that the war [in the Middle East] will push for expansion into follow-up orders, additional batteries ... and integrated air-defence system projects."

Following the combat success against Iran, the UAE reportedly asked Seoul to fast-track the delivery of its remaining missile batteries. And according to a Wall Street Journal report, the UAE has also requested additional missile supplies from LIG Nex1 and Hanwha.

At the same time, Saudi Arabia and Iraq - who signed their own deals in 2024 for 10 and eight batteries, respectively - are also seeking delivery to shore up their defences. Saudi Arabia reportedly asked for its Cheongung-II order to be expedited as well, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Lami Kim, Korea chair in advanced technologies, national security and defence, at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a London-based think tank, said the Cheongung-II's effectiveness in the war had given it a "critical credential".

"By contrast, China has had limited success in exporting air-defence systems to the Middle East, and its prospects in this area remain uncertain, particularly in light of its close ties with Iran," Kim said.

"Beyond political considerations, interoperability is another key factor. South Korea's weapons systems are generally more compatible with those of Gulf countries, which have historically relied on U.S. systems."

The Cheongung-II's performance comes amid China's attempts to sell its own surface-to-air missiles overseas, coupled with the rising demand for air defence in the Middle East and nearby regional markets.

The HQ-9 long-range surface-to-air missile, often referred to as the Chinese version of the Patriot, is now operated by Azerbaijan, Egypt, Pakistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

Meanwhile, the HQ-22 medium-to-long-range surface-to-air missile is operated by Serbia and Thailand.

While some reports said Tehran had received a delivery of the HQ-9 from China in September, there is scant evidence that the Chinese systems were present in Iran during the American air strikes that began on February 28.

Liselotte Odgaard, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute in Washington, said that although there could be export opportunities for Chinese systems such as the HQ-9 to Iran and its allies, there was little verified combat data showing their sustained performance against modern ballistic missile threats.

"Also, China's strategic partnership with Iran creates hesitation among Gulf states that view Tehran as their primary threat," Odgaard added. "Buying Chinese air defences risks perceived intelligence leakage or political signalling."

"By contrast, South Korea maintains neutral, commercially driven defence relations with Gulf States and Iran alike, without strategic entanglement."

However, Siemon Wezeman, a senior researcher for Stockholm International Peace Research Institute's Arms transfers programme, said current defensive systems in general, while technically effective, were "economically problematic" compared with the much cheaper drones and missiles that they were used against.

"If China [were to] supply Iran with advanced weapons ... other Middle Eastern states could be less willing to buy the same systems from China," Wezeman said. "Not as some kind of 'punishment' but more because Iran would have insight into how the systems work and thus can be defeated.

"The main barrier to Chinese arms sales in the region is probably the pressure from the U.S. on its allies and clients not to buy from China and face possible sanctions if you do."

Read the article at SCMP.