How China's military could learn vital lessons from war in Iran

Military delegates arrive for the closing meeting of the Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress (NPC) at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, March 12. EPA-Yonhap

China could gain a "massive strategic advantage" from the war in Iran by reshaping trade in the Middle East and catching up with the U.S. militarily, according to one analyst.

Zhu Zhaoyi, executive director of the Institute of Middle East Studies at Peking University HSBC Business School, also said that with the current ceasefire looking likely to be extended, Beijing should assume a more active role in peace talks.

He told a seminar in Shenzhen on Friday that China should draw on the lessons from the conflict, arguing that although it had a vast arsenal of new weapons, it had not had the chance to learn from "actual combat".

"I believe the war in the Middle East is of great value to China, particularly militarily," he said.

"The more the U.S. military fights, the narrower the generational gap between our equipment and theirs becomes. Its engagement in warfare actually serves as a massive learning opportunity for China."

The United States has hinted at the possibility of further peace talks ahead of the end of the current two-week ceasefire on Wednesday.

U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly hinted that a second round of negotiations could happen soon and suggested a breakthrough is imminent.

"We're going to have victory. Very shortly," Trump said on Thursday.

But the U.S. has also threatened further strikes, with Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth warning that Iran's electrical infrastructure may be targeted.

On Saturday, Iran announced that it had closed the Strait of Hormuz again after briefly reopening it, blaming the continued U.S. blockade of the key lifeline for oil and gas exports.

The instability surrounding the strait might prove to be a "major boon" for China, Zhu told the event, which was jointly organised by the University of Hong Kong and Chinese University of Hong Kong.

The turmoil could effectively "unbind" Beijing from pre-conflict constraints, such as the frictions and shrinking export quotas that resulted from its massive trade surplus.

Zhu said the current situation was weaponising energy lifelines, normalising proxy wars and forcing countries in the Middle East to take sides.

"This backdrop has yielded massive strategic advantages for China, specifically its dominance across the entire new energy value chain, the rapid iteration of high-end manufacturing and the resilience of China's 'dual circulation' industrial model [designed to reduce reliance on exports] — all of which have gained international recognition," he said.

In recent decades, China has risen to be the Middle East's largest trading partner and a major energy buyer, as well as a major force in regional infrastructure finance and emerging digital and industrial sectors.

Playing a role in peace talks would be "necessary and reasonable", given Beijing's extensive economic footprint in the region, Zhu asserted.

He said China could play a vital role in de-escalation, even though Iran's desire for Chinese involvement almost certainly outweighed that of the U.S. or Israel.

"For instance, the deployment of Chinese warships to escort tankers — both domestic and those from friendly nations like Southeast Asian states — could help alleviate regional pressure," he said.

"Ultimately, China is well-positioned to exert a positive and significant influence as a major power in future negotiations."

China has repeatedly called for de-escalation and the restoration of free navigation in the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible.

Earlier, Trump said Beijing played a significant role in bringing Iran to the negotiating table, but Chinese state broadcaster CCTV said the country's diplomatic efforts were multilateral and were not aimed at one country.

China has also sent a special envoy on an extensive tour of the Gulf and held high-level calls with key stakeholders, including Iran and Pakistan.

President Xi Jinping also unveiled a four-point proposal when he met Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the crown prince of Abu Dhabi, on Tuesday.

Zhu said the U.S. and Iran might be able to find some "middle ground" on uranium enrichment in the coming days, but added: "Other critical issues, such as ballistic missile restrictions and the cessation of support for proxy militias, will likely not be addressed in depth yet and will instead be deferred to the negotiation phase during the extended ceasefire."

A 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon took effect on Thursday, after strikes targeting the Iranian-backed militia Hezbollah killed more than 2,100 Lebanese people and displaced over 2.1 million.

The fighting in Lebanon was a major sticking point between the U.S. and Iran, with Tehran insisting the ceasefire must be extended to that country, but the two countries still appear far apart over the nuclear issue and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Read the article at SCMP.