Why have China's arms imports plummeted by 72% over the past 5 years?

This photo taken on April 7, 2023, shows the rocket force of the Eastern Theater Command of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) transferring a missile before the combat readiness patrol and military exercises around the Taiwan Island. Xinhua-Yonhap

Beijing's arms imports have nose-dived by nearly three-quarters over the past five years, as it has replaced overseas weapons purchases with domestic technology, according to a Swedish think tank report.

However, other countries in the region have increased in their overseas weapons purchases amid "fears over China's intentions".

A report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) released on Monday said countries in Asia and Oceania imported 31 percent of the world's arms between 2021 and 2025, second only to Europe on 33 percent.

Nevertheless, the region's share of arms imports was 20 percent lower than in the previous five-year period.

This was mainly because of falls in arms sales to China, where imports fell 72 percent, as well as in South Korea, which cut purchases by 54 percent, and Australia, which bought 39 percent less, the report said.

According to SIPRI, China was the 21st-largest recipient of major arms globally, falling out of the world's top 10 largest recipients for the first time since 1991-95.

Russia is still China's largest weapons source - supplying 66 percent of its arms imports - yet Beijing is rapidly phasing out Russian hardware in favour of its own technology, including helicopters and aircraft engines.

Separately, the Ukraine war has forced Russia to use more of its own arms production, crimping exports.

Four countries in Asia and Oceania - India, Pakistan, Japan and Australia - ranked among the 10 largest arms importers globally in 2021-25.

The United States was the largest arms supplier to the region by a wide margin, accounting for 35 percent, followed by Russia on 17 percent and China on 14 percent.

In East Asia, Japan and Taiwan recorded the highest increases in arms imports between 2016-20 and 2021-25, rising by 76 and 54 percent respectively.

Late last year, Tokyo approved a record defence budget proposal of more than 9 trillion yen ($57 billion) for the coming financial year to meet its 2027 goal of allocating 2 percent of Japan's GDP towards defence.

Washington has also approved its largest arms package yet to Taiwan, worth US$11 billion.

Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary. Most countries, including the U.S. and Japan, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state, but Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the self-ruled island by force and is committed to supplying it with weapons.

Meanwhile, India was the world's second-largest arms importer in 2021-25, at 8.2 percent, despite a 4 percent contraction compared with the previous five-year period.

Indian Armed Forces officers lower the national flag during the annual Beating Retreat military ceremony at Kartavya Path in New Delhi, India, Jan. 29. The ceremony is held annually on Jan. 29 by India's military bands to mark the closing of Republic Day celebrations. EPA-Yonhap

While Russia maintained its position as India's top arms supplier, its share of the South Asian country's weapons imports fell to 40 percent compared with the 51 percent share it had in 2016-21 and 70 percent in 2011-15.

Over the past decade, India has increasingly turned to Western countries such as France, Israel and the U.S., according to SIPRI.

The report said India's arms imports were driven by tensions with both China and Pakistan that have often led to armed conflict. In May last year, New Delhi and Islamabad used imported arms against each other following clashes in and beyond the disputed Kashmir region.

Pakistan's arms imports grew by 66 percent between 2016-20 and 2021-25, with China remaining its dominant arms supplier, accounting for 80 percent of the country's weapons purchases in 2021-25, up from 73 percent in 2016-20.

According to Siemon Wezeman, a senior SIPRI researcher in arms transfers, "fears over China's intentions and its growing military capabilities continue to influence armament efforts in other parts of Asia and Oceania, which often still depend on imported arms".

"In South Asia, the high volume of arms that India imports is largely due to the perceived threat from China and to India's long-running conflict with the main recipient of Chinese arms exports, Pakistan," Wezeman said.

"Imported weapons were used in the 2025 clash between India and Pakistan, both nuclear-armed states."

Overall, the volume of global arms transfers increased by 9.2 percent between 2016-20 and 2021-25, marking the largest global arms flow since 2011-15. European states "more than trebled" their arms imports, with a 210 percent increase, SIPRI said.

A service member of a medical evacuation unit of the 93rd Kholodnyi Yar Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces observes the sky for Russian drones during an evacuation of an injured brother-in-arms from the frontline town of Druzhkivka, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Donetsk region, Ukraine, Feb. 27. Reuters-Yonhap

The increase was driven by deliveries to Ukraine, the world's largest arms importer, which received 9.7 percent of all arms transfers in 2021-25 for its war against Russia.

European countries were also responsible for the additional transfers as they sought to shore up their military defences against a perceived mounting threat from Moscow, making Europe the biggest recipient region in the world.

In arms exports, China slipped one place in the world rankings to fifth, with a 5.6 percent share, despite its 11 percent increase in arms sales. Germany overtook China, with 5.7 percent of the global share.

The U.S. held steady as the top global arms exporter, accounting for 42 percent of all international arms transfers in 2021-25. America notched up 27 percent growth from the previous five-year period, thanks to a 217 percent expansion in its arms sales to Europe, which overtook the Middle East to become the US' largest recipient region for the first time.

Peter Wezeman, also a senior SIPRI researcher in arms transfers, said the US had "further cemented its dominance as an arms supplier, even in an increasingly multipolar world".

"For importers, U.S. arms offer advanced capabilities and a way of fostering good relations with the U.S., while the U.S. views arms exports as a tool of foreign policy and a way of strengthening its arms industry, as the [Donald] Trump administration's new 'America first' arms transfer strategy once again makes clear."

France was the world's second-largest supplier of major arms in 2021-25, accounting for 9.8 percent of global exports, a 21 percent increase from the previous period.

Russia, coming in third, was the only top 10 supplier to see its arms exports fall - by 64 percent. Its share of global arms exports shrank from 21 to 6.8 percent.

Read the article at SCMP.