Korea’s health care costs set to double by 2030 as population ages rapidly

gettyimagesbank

As Korea’s population quickly ages, pressure is mounting on the National Health Insurance Service (NHIS), with total medical care costs projected to reach as much as 191 trillion won ($131 billion) by 2030 — nearly double the nation’s health care spending a decade earlier.

According to a recent report by the NHIS, total medical care costs in Korea climbed from about 22 trillion won in 2004 to 110 trillion won in 2023, a fivefold increase over two decades.

As the disease profile rapidly shifts toward chronic conditions and an aging population, the report projected total medical care costs in 2030 at about 189 trillion to 191 trillion won.

Last year, people aged 65 and older made up more than 21 percent of Korea’s population, surpassing the United Nations’ threshold of 20 percent for a super-aged society.

It also projected a sharp rise in the share of medical spending devoted to conditions related to quality of life, with musculoskeletal diseases expected to climb from fourth in 2023 to third by 2030, mental and behavioral disorders from eighth to fifth, and neurological diseases from 11th to seventh.

Dementia, a major age-related illness, imposes a significant financial burden, with costs rising more than fourfold from about 779.6 billion won in 2010 to 3.3 trillion won in 2023.

Dementia-related medical costs are projected to reach up to 4.4 trillion won by 2030, growing at about 11 percent a year.

The report also projected a deepening reliance on hospitalization-related costs, which are expected to rise from 38.5 percent of total medical care costs in 2010 to 47.5 percent by 2030, reflecting growing demand for long-term care and intensive treatment as the population ages.

The report said current population-based projections fall short of capturing the growing complexity of medical care.

“Future monitoring of medical care costs must move beyond managing overall totals to a more precise system that reflects disease-specific incidence and prevalence,” it said, noting that conditions such as dementia require comprehensive fiscal projections linked with long-term care insurance.