Heat waves leading to fewer babies? Why the concern is not exaggerated

Visitors look at child care products at the BeFe Baby Fair at Coex in Samseong-dong, Gangnam District, Seoul, Aug. 17. Yonhap

For 36-year-old office worker Kim Jung-hoon, who plans to marry next March, his dream of becoming a father now comes with hesitation. After enduring suffocating heat waves this summer, he began asking himself, “Would it be safe to raise a baby in this kind of weather?” His fiancee shares the same concerns.

Kim said his biggest fear is whether a newborn, unable to voice discomfort, could survive relentless summer heat. “Adults can drink water or turn on the air conditioner, but babies can only cry,” he said. “When the temperature rises close to 40 degrees Celsius, I worry a child would truly suffer.”

Another parent, a 35-year-old mother of a 4-year-old, echoed similar anxiety. “Summers are hotter and winters colder, and even adults struggle to cope,” she said. “Every time I take my child outside, I wonder what kind of world awaits them.”

Watching the recent drought in Gangneung, Gangwon Province, made her concerns more concrete. “When I hear about water shortages, I think about how parents with babies manage daily tasks like washing bottles or giving baths,” she said.

Obong Reservoir, which supplies 87 percent of the water used by households in Gangneung, has dried up in the city’s worst-ever drought as of Wednesday. Yonhap

Global phenomenon of climate-driven hesitation

Such worries extend beyond Korea. A survey by the Guardian last year found that 17 of 97 female scientists from countries including Brazil, Chile, Germany, India and Kenya said they had decided to have fewer children due to climate change.

Lisa Schipper, a professor at the University of Bonn, said she stopped planning for more children after her first was born in 2013.

“At the time, I was more optimistic about reducing emissions,” she said. “Now I feel guilty for bringing a child into this world and for contributing to climate change myself.”

Other studies confirm the trend. A United Nations Population Fund survey released in June found that 14 percent of respondents across 14 countries had fewer children than desired due to political or social crises such as wars or pandemics, while nine percent cited climate change and environmental destruction.

In the United States, a 2021 Pew Research Center poll showed that 33 percent of adults who chose not to have children indicated environmental concerns were part of that choice.

Researchers also point to the direct effects of rising temperatures on fertility. A U.S. National Bureau of Economic Research study found that each additional day above 80 degrees Fahrenheit (26.7 Celsius) reduced birth rates nine months later by 0.4 percent, based on data from 1931 to 2010. The study suggested extreme heat could harm reproductive health and fertility.

Although the link has weakened since the 1970s with wider use of air conditioning, researchers said the correlation highlights how climate conditions affect conception.

Fertility crisis in Korea

Korea’s total fertility rate dropped from 1.24 children per woman in 2015 to 0.75 last year, the lowest among OECD countries. In 2020, the number of deaths exceeded births for the first time, a demographic shift known as a “population dead cross.”

David Coleman, a professor at the University of Oxford, has warned that Korea risks becoming a nation that could “disappear” due to population decline.

Climate concerns now appear to be part of this equation. Kwon Kyung-rak, an activist, said, “Korea tends to approach the low birthrate problem mainly in terms of economics or social factors. But we also need to see climate change as a driver of demographic crisis if we are to prepare for the world our children will face 100 years from now.”

This article from the Hankook Ilbo, the sister publication of The Korea Times, is translated by a generative AI and edited by The Korea Times.